2020 United States presidential election in Missouri

The 2020 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Missouri voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2020 United States presidential election in Missouri

November 3, 2020
Turnout69.75% 3.19 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,718,736 1,253,014
Percentage 56.80% 41.41%

County results

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Trump won Missouri again by a 15.4% margin. This was 3.1% lower than his 2016 margin, but still a better performance in the state than that of any other Republican nominee since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state Trump would win.

This is also only the second time that Missouri has voted more Republican than neighboring Kansas since the latter's statehood, the first time being in 1916.

Analysis

A bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century, Missouri has since come to vote reliably Republican in presidential elections. This has been attributed to a shift in Republican policy towards right-wing populism and social conservatism; the platform has found fertile ground in the state, which lies in the Bible Belt, with Trump carrying 86% of White, born-again/Evangelical Christians.[3]

Biden won the same four jurisdictions that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did in 2012 and 2016, respectively: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to the college town of Columbia; and St. Louis County, home to the suburbs of St. Louis, which he also won. Biden also improved Democratic margins in Platte and Clay counties, both suburbs of Kansas City; Platte was carried by Trump by only 3%, and Clay by 4%. In addition, the 61% of the vote that Biden won in St. Louis County was the best performance for a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Missouri came from voters who trusted him on economic policy: a 57% majority believed Trump was better able to handle international trade. With a hybrid industrial-service-agricultural economy, 63% of Missourian voters favored increasing taxes on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries, and these voters broke for Trump by 67%. As is the case in many Southern and border states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: White Missourians supported Trump by 62%, while black Missourians supported Biden by 88%. Trump became the first Republican to win Missouri by double digits twice.[3]

In other elections, incumbent Republican Mike Parson easily defeated State Auditor Nicole Galloway by 16 points—outperforming Trump—in the governor's race, further testifying to the state's trend towards the GOP, and becoming the best performance for a Republican on the gubernatorial level since John Ashcroft's 1988 victory.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

2020 Missouri Democratic presidential primary[4]
Candidate Votes  % Delegates
Joe Biden 400,347 60.10 44
Bernie Sanders 230,374 34.59 24
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) 9,866 1.48
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 8,156 1.22
Tulsi Gabbard 4,887 0.73
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 3,309 0.50
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 2,682 0.40
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 953 0.14
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 651 0.10
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 584 0.09
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 206 0.03
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 170 0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn) 159 0.02
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 103 0.02
Henry Hewes 94 0.01
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 52 0.01
Others 1,025 0.15
Uncommitted 2,494 0.37
Total 666,112 100% 68

Republican primary

2020 Missouri Republican presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes  % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 301,600 96.8% 54
Uncommitted 4,176 1.4%
Bill Weld 2,148 0.7%
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 2,002 0.6%
Bob Ely 847 0.3%
Matthew John Matern 607 0.2%
Total 311,793 100% 54

Libertarian primary

2020 Missouri Libertarian presidential primary

March 10, 2020
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Uncommitted
Home state Virginia N/A
Popular vote 1,683 573
Percentage 74.6% 25.4%

Election results by county
  Jacob Hornberger
  Uncommitted
  Tie
  No votes
Missouri Libertarian presidential primary, March 10, 2020[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 1,683 74.6%
Uncommitted 573 25.4%
Total 2,256 100%

Green primary

2020 Missouri Green presidential primaries[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Howie Hawkins 2,733 76.93%
Green Dario Hunter 639 26.87%
Green David Rolde 214 10.99%
Total votes 3,586 100%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[8] Likely R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[9] Lean R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Likely R July 14, 2020
Politico[11] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[12] Lean R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[13] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[14] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[15] Likely R September 2, 2020
CBS News[16] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[17] Likely R August 2, 2020
ABC News[18] Lean R July 31, 2020
NPR[19] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[20] Likely R August 6, 2020
538[21] Likely R September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win October 13 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.7% 51.3% 5.0% Trump +7.6
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 43.6% 51.6% 4.8% Trump +8.0
Average 43.7% 51.5% 4.9% Trump +7.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,926 (LV) ± 2.5% 54%[lower-alpha 3] 44% - -
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 487 (LV) ± 6.6% 55% 43% 2% 0%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 1,109 (LV) ± 3% 52% 43% - -
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Oct 28–29, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 50% 45% 2% 1% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 4,759 (LV) 53% 45% - -
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Oct 14–15, 2020 1,010 (LV) ± 3% 51% 45% 1% 1% - 2%
YouGov/SLU Sep 24 – Oct 7, 2020 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 52% 43% - - 3% 2%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Missouri[upper-alpha 1] Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 48% - -
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 980 (LV) ± 3% 51% 46% - - 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,157 (LV) 53% 45% - - 2%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Sep 16–17, 2020 1,046 (LV) ± 3% 53% 45% - - 2%
We Ask America Sep 1–3, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 49% 44% - - 5%[lower-alpha 4] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,863 (LV) 54% 44% - - 2%
Trafalgar Group (R) Aug 26–28, 2020 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 52% 41% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 5] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,261 (LV) 54% 44% - - 2%
YouGov/Saint Louis University Jun 23 – Jul 1, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.95% 50% 43% - - 4% 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 868 (LV) 51% 47% - - 1%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Galloway for Governor/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 1] Jun 16–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% - -
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Jun 10–11, 2020 1,152 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 43% - - 6%
We Ask America May 26–27, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 48% 44% - - 3%[lower-alpha 6] 5%
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) 53% 42% - - 5%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[upper-alpha 2] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) 50% 43% - - 7%
Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 53% 42% - - 5%
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 43% - - 6%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) 52% 37% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 36% 12%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 38% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) 52% 37% 11%
Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 37% 9%
Remington Research Group Apr 10–11, 2019 955 (LV) ± 3.3% 51% 39% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout Feb 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) 53% 35% 12%
American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[upper-alpha 2] Jan 20–22, 2020 1,200 (LV) 51% 41% 8%
Remington Research Group Sep 18–19, 2019 1,046 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 46% 14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout March 6–7, 2019 984(LV) ± 3.3% 53% 46% 2%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Missouri[22][23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,718,736 56.80 +0.02
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
1,253,014 41.41 +3.27
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
41,205 1.36 -2.11
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
8,283 0.27 -0.63
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
3,919 0.13 -0.34
Write-in 805 0.03 n/a
Total votes 3,025,962 100.00

By county

Joe Biden

Democratic

Donald Trump

Republican

Other Margin Total
County  % #  % #  % #  % # #
Adair35.89%3,71060.45%6,4132.06%21325.62%2,70310,336
Andrew23.75%2,35173.30%7,2551.48%14649.55%4,9049,898
Atchison19.69%56476.75%2,1991.78%5157.07%1,6352,865
Audrain24.86%2,70471.09%7,7322.02%22046.23%5,02810,876
Barry18.63%2,94878.52%12,4251.42%22559.89%9,47715,823
Barton13.74%84484.14%5,1681.06%6570.40%4,3246,142
Bates19.53%1,67277.04%6,5971.72%14757.51%4,9258,563
Benton20.44%2,18076.05%8,1091.75%18755.60%5,92910,663
Bollinger12.40%75085.42%5,1671.09%6673.02%4,4176,049
Boone53.47%50,06441.28%38,6462.63%2,458-12.20%-11,41893,626
Buchanan36.04%13,44560.19%22,4501.88%70324.14%9,00537,301
Butler17.96%3,30179.45%14,6021.29%23861.49%11,30118,379
Caldwell18.92%89778.55%3,7251.27%6059.64%2,8284,742
Callaway27.17%5,87068.58%14,8152.12%45941.41%8,94521,603
Camden22.50%5,65275.03%18,8501.23%31052.54%13,19825,122
Cape Girardeau26.25%10,76070.52%28,9071.61%66144.27%18,14740,989
Carroll17.19%78681.06%3,7060.87%4063.87%2,9204,572
Carter14.29%41883.79%2,4510.96%2869.50%2,0332,925
Cass32.53%19,05263.51%37,1971.98%1,15930.98%18,14558,567
Cedar16.00%1,14580.89%5,7881.55%11164.89%4,6437,155
Chariton22.20%91675.38%3,1111.21%5053.19%2,1954,127
Christian23.37%11,13173.32%34,9201.65%78849.95%23,78947,627
Clark19.72%67877.72%2,6721.28%4458.00%1,9943,438
Clay46.00%59,40050.03%64,6051.99%2,5644.03%5,205129,133
Clinton26.13%2,89670.38%7,7991.74%19344.25%4,90311,081
Cole31.52%12,69464.76%26,0861.86%74933.25%13,39240,278
Cooper25.37%2,24970.75%6,2721.94%17245.38%4,0238,865
Crawford19.02%2,11378.55%8,7251.22%13559.52%6,61211,108
Dade15.74%65681.91%3,4141.18%4966.17%2,7584,168
Dallas16.81%1,38080.63%6,6191.28%10563.82%5,2398,209
Daviess18.77%74678.06%3,1021.59%6359.29%2,3563,974
De Kalb18.87%93077.68%3,8281.72%8558.81%2,8984,928
Dent14.58%1,05682.68%5,9871.37%9968.10%4,9317,241
Douglas14.34%1,01683.23%5,8981.21%8668.90%4,8827,086
Dunklin20.95%2,20077.45%8,1350.80%8456.51%5,93510,503
Franklin26.61%14,56969.52%38,0581.93%1,05842.91%23,48954,743
Gasconade19.96%1,60177.55%6,2221.25%10057.60%4,6218,023
Gentry18.69%61378.69%2,5811.31%4360.00%1,9683,280
Greene38.00%55,06857.71%83,6302.14%3,10219.71%28,562144,902
Grundy17.80%79979.84%3,5851.18%5362.05%2,7864,490
Harrison15.48%59782.91%3,1980.80%3167.44%2,6013,857
Henry23.96%2,61973.44%8,0271.30%14249.48%5,40810,930
Hickory20.55%1,05677.19%3,9661.13%5856.64%2,9105,138
Holt14.25%33883.31%1,9761.22%2969.06%1,6382,372
Howard27.08%1,41368.09%3,5532.41%12641.01%2,1405,218
Howell17.03%3,21880.32%15,1811.33%25163.29%11,96318,901
Iron20.35%94577.45%3,5961.10%5157.10%2,6514,643
Jackson60.00%199,84237.24%126,5351.97%6,686-22.76%-73,307333,063
Jasper25.36%13,54970.62%37,7282.01%1,07545.26%24,17953,427
Jefferson31.58%37,52364.85%77,0461.78%2,11933.27%39,523118,807
Johnson29.32%6,97465.13%15,4892.78%66035.80%8,51523,783
Knox18.07%34078.96%1,4861.49%2860.89%1,1461,882
Laclede16.31%2,78080.74%13,7621.47%25164.43%10,98217,044
Lafayette25.75%4,47270.68%12,2731.79%31044.92%7,80117,365
Lawrence17.69%3,21479.39%14,4261.46%26561.71%11,21218,170
Lewis21.02%98475.90%3,5531.54%7254.88%2,5694,681
Lincoln22.34%6,60773.86%21,8481.90%56351.52%15,24129,581
Linn21.93%1,27575.04%4,3631.51%8853.11%3,0885,814
Livingston20.62%1,41077.01%5,2671.18%8156.40%3,8576,839
Macon20.95%1,66276.58%6,0761.24%9855.63%4,4147,934
Madison17.72%1,01979.74%4,5841.27%7362.01%3,5655,749
Maries16.83%81480.48%3,8921.34%6563.65%3,0784,836
Marion23.58%3,20273.02%9,9151.70%23149.44%6,71313,579
McDonald15.64%1,43981.12%7,4651.62%14965.49%6,0269,202
Mercer12.37%22285.85%1,5410.89%1673.48%1,3191,795
Miller16.24%2,03881.08%10,1761.34%16864.84%8,13812,550
Mississippi24.56%1,17873.73%3,5370.85%4149.18%2,3594,797
Moniteau18.01%1,30879.10%5,7441.45%10561.09%4,4367,262
Monroe20.56%93676.37%3,4771.54%7055.81%2,5414,553
Montgomery20.58%1,20876.05%4,4651.69%9955.48%3,2575,871
Morgan20.02%1,92477.46%7,4421.26%12157.43%5,5189,608
New Madrid23.93%1,74874.57%5,4470.75%5550.64%3,6997,305
Newton20.15%5,81876.61%22,1201.62%46756.46%16,30228,872
Nodaway28.34%2,85368.19%6,8651.74%17539.85%4,01210,068
Oregon17.12%82380.01%3,8471.44%6962.90%3,0244,808
Osage13.62%1,03784.36%6,4251.01%7770.75%5,3887,616
Ozark15.31%75282.74%4,0640.98%4867.43%3,3124,912
Pemiscot26.94%1,56071.16%4,1200.95%5544.21%2,5605,790
Perry17.38%1,66479.99%7,6571.32%12662.60%5,9939,573
Pettis24.46%4,78370.84%13,8542.35%46046.38%9,07119,557
Phelps28.16%5,63767.34%13,4802.25%45139.18%7,84320,019
Pike21.98%1,71775.07%5,8631.47%11553.09%4,1467,810
Platte46.50%27,17949.48%28,9172.01%1,1742.97%1,73858,444
Polk18.74%2,88576.98%11,8502.14%32958.24%8,96515,393
Pulaski25.34%3,74069.98%10,3292.34%34544.64%6,58914,759
Putnam15.19%36183.47%1,9840.67%1668.28%1,6232,377
Ralls21.06%1,20576.81%4,3961.07%6155.76%3,1915,723
Randolph22.62%2,48572.99%8,0182.19%24150.37%5,53310,985
Ray26.25%3,10970.46%8,3451.65%19544.21%5,23611,844
Reynolds15.87%52981.97%2,7331.08%3666.11%2,2043,334
Ripley14.46%83383.98%4,8390.78%4569.52%4,0065,762
Saline29.99%2,90466.62%6,4511.69%16436.63%3,5479,683
Schuyler18.40%37379.23%1,6061.18%2460.83%1,2332,027
Scotland19.21%38877.23%1,5601.78%3658.02%1,1722,020
Scott20.95%3,75376.85%13,7691.10%19755.91%10,01617,916
Shannon17.91%70680.31%3,1650.89%3562.40%2,4593,941
Shelby17.37%59279.23%2,7001.70%5861.85%2,1083,408
St. Charles39.59%89,53056.78%128,3891.81%4,09817.19%38,859226,115
St. Clair19.65%98878.20%3,9321.07%5458.55%2,9445,028
St. Francois24.76%7,04472.10%20,5111.57%44647.34%13,46728,447
St. Louis60.18%328,15136.59%199,4931.61%8,802-23.60%-128,658545,248
St. Louis City80.85%110,08915.77%21,4741.69%2,304-65.08%-88,615136,171
Ste. Genevieve28.19%2,71368.88%6,6301.46%14140.70%3,9179,625
Stoddard13.43%1,81984.76%11,4840.91%12371.33%9,66513,549
Stone18.79%3,50679.31%14,8000.95%17760.53%11,29418,660
Sullivan19.20%47879.28%1,9740.76%1960.08%1,4962,490
Taney19.97%5,33976.73%20,5081.65%44156.75%15,16926,729
Texas15.01%1,71682.88%9,4781.06%12167.87%7,76211,436
Vernon20.44%1,90376.84%7,1551.36%12756.40%5,2529,312
Warren25.42%4,76970.48%13,2222.05%38445.06%8,45318,759
Washington17.86%1,80479.67%8,0471.24%12561.81%6,24310,101
Wayne14.26%84584.18%4,9870.78%4669.92%4,1425,924
Webster18.70%3,57377.89%14,8801.71%32659.18%11,30719,105
Worth19.16%21578.16%8771.34%1559.00%6621,122
Wright13.19%1,16884.15%7,4531.33%11870.96%6,2858,857

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[24]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 18.1% 80.3% Lacy Clay (116th Congress)
Cori Bush (117th Congress)
2nd 49.18% 49.16% Ann Wagner
3rd 66.9% 31.3% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66% 31.9% Vicky Hartzler
5th 39.6% 58.4% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 63.3% 35% Sam Graves
7th 70% 28.1% Billy Long
8th 77.3% 21.4% Jason Smith

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Someone else" with 5%
  5. "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  6. "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Galloway's campaign
  2. Uniting Missouri is a PAC supporting Governor Mike Parson (R) in the 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election.

References

  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Missouri Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. "State of Missouri - Presidential Primary Election, March 10, 2020" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.
  5. "Missouri Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  6. "Joe Biden, Donald Trump win Missouri Presidential Preferential Primary". KMBC. March 10, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
  7. "Candidate List — March 2020 Presidential Preference Primary". Retrieved December 18, 2019.
  8. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
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Further reading

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