Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.

Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Next election
Opinion polls

National polls

Pre-campaign period
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Polling firm Last date
of polling[lower-alpha 1]		 Link CPC LPC NDP BQ PPC GPC Others[lower-alpha 2] Margin
of error[lower-alpha 3]		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Polling method[lower-alpha 5] Lead
Nanos ResearchApril 22, 2022[1]35.630.019.65.43.45.5N/A±2.9 pp1,000 (1/2)telephone (rolling)5.6
LegerApril 10, 2022[2]2931217642±2.5 pp1,538online2
Abacus DataApril 9, 2022[3]3133188541±2.1 pp2,000online2
Nanos ResearchApril 8, 2022[4]333318N/AN/AN/AN/A±3.0 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone (rolling)0
Nanos ResearchApril 1, 2022[5]313321N/AN/AN/AN/A±3.0 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone (rolling)2
Abacus DataMarch 25, 2022[6]3331177641±2.6 pp1,500online2
Nanos ResearchMarch 25, 2022[7]31.332.221.65.93.64.8N/A±2.9 pp1,000 (1/2)telephone (rolling)0.9
March 22, 2022The Liberals and NDP enter into a confidence-and-supply agreement.
Nanos ResearchMarch 11, 2022[8]29.332.122.26.45.04.9N/A±3.0 pp1,000 (1/2)telephone (rolling)2.8
LegerMarch 6, 2022[9]2833228531±2.5 pp1,591online5
Nanos ResearchFebruary 25, 2022[10]32.230.317.7N/A5.46.8N/A±3.1 pp1,000 (1/2)telephone (rolling)1.9
Abacus DataFebruary 22, 2022[11]3131208631±1.4 pp5,200online0
IpsosFebruary 21, 2022[12]3232236431±3.5 pp1,001online0
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 17, 2022[13]38.730.614.66.36.21.91.7±2.7 pp1,323IVR8.1
Nanos ResearchFebruary 11, 2022[14]31.130.616.97.17.16.4N/A±3.0 pp1,000 (1/2)telephone (rolling)0.5
Abacus DataFebruary 8, 2022[15]3033198631±2.6 pp1,500online3
LegerFebruary 6, 2022[16]2933218440±2.49 pp1,546online4
February 2, 2022Erin O'Toole is removed as leader of the Conservative Party. Candice Bergen is named interim leader.
Nanos ResearchJanuary 28, 2022[17]30.429.920.7N/A6.75.8N/A±3.1 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone (rolling)0.5
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 23, 2022[18]29.329.416.75.812.73.22.8±2.3 pp1,813IVR0.1
LegerJanuary 23, 2022[19]3134187632±2.51 pp1,525online3
Nanos ResearchJanuary 21, 2022[20]29.428.422.35.6N/A7.0N/A±3.1 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone (rolling)1.0
EKOSJanuary 17, 2022[21]29.730.319.55.99.14.51±1.9 pp2,612IVR0.6
Nanos ResearchJanuary 14, 2022[22]28.528.224.36.15.36.3N/A±3.0 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone (rolling)0.3
Angus ReidJanuary 12, 2022[23]2934205632±2.0 pp5,002online5
Abacus DataJanuary 12, 2022[24]3032198731±2.089 pp2,200online2
Nanos ResearchJanuary 7, 2022[25]29.030.621.46.25.76.1N/A±3.0 pp1,000telephone (rolling)1.6
Discover by NavigatorJanuary 5, 2022[26]293222674N/AN/A2,513online3
EKOSDecember 21, 2021[27]25322341042±3.1 pp1,015IVR7
Nanos ResearchDecember 10, 2021[28]30.433.319.86.26.77.0N/A±3.0 pp1,000telephone (rolling)2.9
LegerDecember 5, 2021[29]2936197531±2.49 pp1,547online7
Mainstreet ResearchNovember 30, 2021[30]30.333.515.75.510.03.21.9±2.36 pp1,719IVR3.2
Abacus DataNovember 30, 2021[31]3032208631±2.2 pp2,025online2
Angus ReidNovember 29, 2021[32]2935207521±2 pp2,005online6
November 27, 2021Amita Kuttner is named interim leader of the Green Party
EKOSNovember 21, 2021[33]26.630.419.15.911.45.21±3.1 pp1,006IVR3.8
LegerNovember 7, 2021[34]2635228532±2.48 pp1,565online9
Nanos ResearchOctober 29, 2021[35]30.130.821.67.45.83.1N/A±3.1 pp1,000 (1/4)telephone (rolling)0.7
Mainstreet ResearchOctober 24, 2021[36]33.333.815.45.5N/A3.08.9±2.4 pp1,711IVR0.5
Nanos ResearchOctober 22, 2021[37]30.829.923.17.35.32.7N/A±3.1 pp1,000telephone (rolling)0.9
Abacus DataOctober 20, 2021[38]3033197631±1.9 pp2,220online3
September 27, 2021Annamie Paul announces her intention to resign as the leader of the Green Party
2021 electionSeptember 20, 2021HTML33.732.617.87.64.92.31.1N/A17,042,591N/A1.1
Polling firm Last date
of polling[lower-alpha 1]		 Link Others Margin
of error[lower-alpha 3]		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Polling method[lower-alpha 5] Lead
CPC LPC NDP BQ PPC GPC

Regional polls

A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level:

Alberta
Polling firm Last date
of polling		 Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error[lower-alpha 3]		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Polling method[lower-alpha 5] Lead
Yorkville StrategiesMarch 9, 2022[39]184820473±4 pp600Phone28

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best Prime Minister:

February 2022 – present
Polling firm Last date

of polling

 Link Justin Trudeau Candice Bergen Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Amita Kuttner Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[lower-alpha 3]		 Lead
Nanos ResearchApril 22, 2022[40]29.720.417.34.71.13.423.3±3.1 pp9.3
Nanos ResearchApril 15, 2022[41]29.719.117.44.91.44.223.2±3.1 pp10.6
Nanos ResearchApril 8, 2022[42]31.818.517.14.21.95.221.3±3.1 pp13.3
Nanos ResearchApril 1, 2022[43]30.016.919.04.11.84.823.3±3.1 pp11.0
Nanos ResearchMarch 25, 2022[44]30.417.119.53.31.94.523.2±3.1 pp10.9
Nanos ResearchMarch 18, 2022[45]30.018.519.33.11.24.723.2±3.1 pp10.7
Nanos ResearchMarch 11, 2022[46]31.017.219.13.51.15.622.4±3.1 pp11.9
Nanos ResearchMarch 4, 2022[47]30.618.017.53.21.16.123.4±3.1 pp12.6
Nanos ResearchFebruary 25, 2022[48]29.919.217.13.31.27.322.0±3.1 pp10.7
Nanos ResearchFebruary 18, 2022[49]28.619.216.73.41.58.022.5±3.1 pp9.4

Government approval polls
Polling firm Last date of polling[lower-alpha 1] Link Approve Disapprove Unsure/
Neither		 Margin
of error[lower-alpha 3]		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 4]		 Polling method[lower-alpha 5] Net
approval
Abacus DataMarch 25, 2022[6]40%42%18%±2.6 pp1,500Online–2%
Abacus DataFebruary 22, 2022[11]39%46%15%±1.4 pp5,200Online–7%
Abacus DataFebruary 8, 2022[15]38%45%16%±2.6 pp1,500Online–7%
IpsosJanuary 17, 2022[50]49%51%N/A±3.5 pp1,001Online–2%
Abacus DataJanuary 12, 2022[24]44%40%16%±2.1 pp2,200Online+4%
Abacus DataNovember 30, 2021[31]41%44%15%±2.2 pp2,025Online–3%
IpsosNovember 15, 2021[51]48%52%N/A±3.5 pp1,001Online–4%
Abacus DataOctober 20, 2021[38]42%43%16%±1.9 pp2,200Online–1%

Notes
  1. Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
  2. Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
  3. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References
  1. "Conservatives open 'statistically significant' lead over Liberals: Nanos poll". CTVNews. April 27, 2022. Retrieved April 27, 2022.
  2. "THE 2022 FEDERAL BUDGET AND CPC LEADERSHIP RACE" (PDF). Leger. April 13, 2022. Retrieved April 13, 2022.
  3. "Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as the opinion environment holds steady amid global and domestic shocks". abacusdata.ca. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
  4. "'Not a breakout budget': No post-budget bump in support for Liberals, says Nanos". CTVNews. April 13, 2022. Retrieved April 13, 2022.
  5. "'Not a breakout budget': No post-budget bump in support for Liberals, says Nanos". CTVNews. April 13, 2022. Retrieved April 13, 2022.
  6. "Abacus Data | Liberal-NDP deal: By 2 to 1 margin, public thinks it will be good rather than bad for Canada". abacusdata.ca. Retrieved March 28, 2022.
  7. "Conservatives open 'statistically significant' lead over Liberals: Nanos poll". CTVNews. April 27, 2022. Retrieved April 27, 2022.
  8. "Polling shows Russia-Ukraine war a 'reset' for Liberals: Nanos". CTV News. March 17, 2022. Retrieved March 17, 2022.
  9. "POLITICS IN CANADA" (PDF). Leger. March 10, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 11, 2022. Retrieved March 11, 2022.
  10. Rana, Abbas (March 7, 2022). "Russia-Ukraine conflict changing the channel for Trudeau but PM's brand damaged by trucker protest, say pollsters" (PDF). The Hill Times. Retrieved March 7, 2022.
  11. "Abacus Data | Emergency measures: Government approval holds as Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked". abacusdata.ca. Archived from the original on February 24, 2022. Retrieved February 24, 2022.
  12. "Ipsos | Liberals and Conservatives Remain Deadlocked in National Vote Intentions in Aftermath of Trucker Protests". ipsos.com. Archived from the original on February 28, 2022. Retrieved February 28, 2022.
  13. "Conservatives up 10 points under Bergen: Mainstreet poll" (PDF). ipolitcs.ca. February 18, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 18, 2022. Retrieved February 18, 2022.
  14. "Trend shows 'material increase' in PPC support: Nanos". CTVNews. February 16, 2022. Archived from the original on February 16, 2022. Retrieved February 16, 2022.
  15. "Abacus Data | Voting intentions favour Liberals, but frustration is mounting across the country". abacusdata.ca. Archived from the original on February 12, 2022. Retrieved February 12, 2022.
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  21. "Federal Landscape Frozen". EKOS Politics. January 19, 2022. Archived from the original on January 21, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  22. "'More of the same' messaging from Liberals affecting ballot support: Nanos". CTVNews. January 20, 2022. Archived from the original on January 21, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  23. "Minority Management: Half of Canadians expect another federal election within two years". Angus Reid Institute. January 27, 2022. Archived from the original on January 28, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  24. "Abacus Data | Public mood sours and federal government approval steady as Omicron cases rise". abacusdata.ca. Archived from the original on January 15, 2022. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
  25. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on January 14, 2022. Retrieved January 18, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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  31. Anderson, Bruce; Coletto, David (December 1, 2021). "A Throne Speech Meets a Distracted Public. Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck". Abacus Data. Archived from the original on December 2, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  32. "O'Toole's Blue Christmas: CPC leader's popularity plummets post-election as party's fortunes run flat". Angus Reid. December 10, 2021. Archived from the original on December 11, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  33. "Three-Way Federal Horserace Frozen". Ekos Politics. November 27, 2021. Archived from the original on December 2, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
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  42. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. April 12, 2022.
  43. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. April 5, 2022.
  44. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 29, 2022.
  45. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 22, 2022.
  46. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 15, 2022.
  47. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 8, 2022.
  48. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 1, 2022.
  49. "poll" (PDF). Nanos Research. March 22, 2022.
  50. Bricker, Darell (January 19, 2022). "Canadians Give Middling Approval Ratings to First Ministers in Response to Omicron". Ipsos. Retrieved March 3, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  51. "Approval of Trudeau Government Hangs in Balance for Next Session of Parliament (48% Approve vs. 52% Disapprove) as Affordability Named Top Priority by Canadians". Ipsos. November 21, 2021. Archived from the original on December 21, 2021. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
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