Opinion polling for the 2022 Latvian parliamentary election

In the run-up to the 2022 Latvian parliamentary election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Latvia. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 6 October 2018, to the present day. The next election will be held in 2022, on or by 1 October, depending on whether the current parliament is recalled by the voters or dissolved by the President. Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary
  Saskaņa
  KPV LV, later PCL
  JKP
  AP!
  NA
  ZZS
  JV
  LRA
  LKS
  PRO
  LuK
  LPV
  Republika

Vote share

The following are opinion polls conducted for the parliamentary election, measuring the estimated percentage of the vote. Parties in bold successfully pass the 5% electoral threshold to win seats in Saeima, highlighted party is in the lead.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Dec. S PCL JKP/K AP! NA ZZS JV LRA LKS P LuK/KuK LPV R Others Lead Gov. Opp.
Factum[1] 29–31 March 2022 832 - 11.2 1.6 6.7 10.2 11.9 10.8 17.0 2.6 5.2 5.9 4.7 5.2 1.7 4.9[lower-alpha 1] 5.1 45.8 49.3
SKDS[2] March 2022 1,820 58 11.5 0.5 5.3 9.3 12.3 13.2 16.2 4.1 5.4 8.3 3.2 4.3 1.7 4.7[lower-alpha 2] 3.0 43.1 52.6
Factum[3] 23-28 February 2022 1,325 - 12.7 1.1 6.2 11.5 11.6 9.5 16.3 3.6 3.4 6.5 5.7 4.5 1.8 5.6 3.6 45.6 48.8
26 Feb 2022 JKP renames itself to "The Conservatives" (K)
SKDS[4] February 2022 1,815 58.2 17.4 5.3 7.2 12.0 11.9 14.1 4.0 4.1 6.7 3.8 7.4 2.2 4.0 3.3 38.6 57.5
19 Feb 2022 LuK renames itself to "For Each and Every One" (KuK)
Factum[5] 1 Jan–2 Feb 2022 637 - 12.7 0.8 6.0 11.6 11.7 9.6 16.6 3.7 3.2 7.0 5.9 4.3 1.9 5.0 3.9 45.9 49.1
SKDS[6] January 2022 1,805 57.4 18.4 4.9 8.0 10.2 14.3 13.1 4.5 5.1 5.7 4.4 4.7 2.6 4.1 5.3 36.2 59.7
Factum[7] 1-31 December 2021 1,410 - 12.2 0.8 6.1 12.0 11.5 9.5 16.9 4.1 3.2 6.6 6.4 4.5 1.7 4.6 4.7 46.5 49
SKDS[8] December 2021 1,818 57.0 19.3 6.0 7.8 11.5 11.7 13.6 3.9 4.7 6.5 5.2 4.5 2.4 2.9 5.7 38.9 58.2
Factum[9][10] 1-30 Nov 2021 866 - 13.0 0.8 5.5 12.6 11.4 9.4 16.9 4.9 3.0 5.9 5.4 4.6 2.0 4.7 3.9 46.4 49
SKDS[11] 8-29 Nov 2021 1,805 53.2 17.8 5.2 9.1 10.5 13.9 14.7 5.0 5.2 6.9 3.2 4.0 2.3 2.3 3.1 39.5 58.3
Factum[12] 1-31 Oct 2021 1,871 - 12.6 0.6 5.1 14.1 11.8 9.0 15.9 3.8 3.5 6.4 6.4 4.5 2.2 4.1 1.8 46.9 49
SKDS[13] October 2021 - 50.2 19.9 1.8 4.9 9.2 10.6 12.9 12.8 4.8 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.8 2.4 1.1 7.0 37.5 61.4
Factum[14] 1 Sep–1 Oct 2021 1,170 - 13.4 0.7 6.9 14.8 11.9 8.5 15.5 4.0 2.9 5.7 6.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 0.7 49.1 47.7
SKDS[15] September 2021 1,806 60.1 20.0 0.7 4.9 8.0 11.4 13.8 13.7 5.2 4.4 5.8 6.1 4.9 1.1 6.2 38 60.9
Factum[16] 27-31 Aug 2021 1,181 - 14.6 1.0 6.1 14.0 11.7 9.1 16.9 3.7 2.8 5.7 5.1 3.6 0.9 4.8 2.3 48.7 46.5
14-28 Aug 2021 Two new parties - Latvia First and Republic - are established
SKDS[17] August 2021 1,825 56.9 22.1 0.8 5.5 8.9 12.5 12.9 11.9 5.0 5.8 6.3 5.6 2.8 9.2 38.8 58.5
Factum[18] 27-31 Jul 2021 1,181 - 15.8 0.6 5.8 11.5 14.4 11.6 16.2 4.1 3.4 6.5 4.1 6.0 0.4 47.9 46.1
SKDS[19] July 2021 1,801 59.5 19.0 1.5 6.7 9.4 12.3 12.9 12.8 5.9 5.9 5.0 5.7 2.9 6.1 41.2 55.9
SKDS[20] June 2021 1,793 62.6 19.3 0.9 6.0 8.9 14.8 14.9 11.5 4.4 5.3 6.9 5.3 1.8 4.4 41.2 57
4 Jun 2021 KPV LV renames itself to "For a Humane Latvia" (PCL)
3 Jun 2021 The Saeima approves the government reshuffle, KPV LV officially leaves the government
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Dec. S KPV LV JKP AP! NA ZZS JV LRA LKS P LuK Others Lead Gov. Opp.
Factum[21] 26–31 May 2021 1,089 - 17.1 0.6 7.8 11.1 13.3 12.5 15.9 3.5 3.8 6.1 3.3 5.0 1.2 48.7 46.3
SKDS[22] May 2021 1,816 56.3 18.3 1.5 8.3 8.6 14.2 13.7 11.8 3.4 6.3 6.6 5.7 1.7 4.1 44.4 54
Factum[23] 26-30 Apr 2021 1,089 - 15.2 1.0 7.4 12.2 11.9 10.1 16.8 4.3 4.1 6.4 5.6 5.1 1.6 49.3 45.7
Latvijas Fakti[24] 19-29 Apr 2021 - 48.3 19.0 2.3 7.7 11.0 12.8 15.1 12.8 4.6 3.7 5.4 5.6 0 3.9 46.6 53.4
SKDS[25] April 2021 - 59.7 20.1 6.5 9.4 13.4 12.9 11.7 3.4 7.0 7.5 7.0 1.0 6.7 41 57.9
Factum[26] 26–30 Mar 2021 990 - 13.5 1.3 8.3 13.4 12.2 10.7 15.7 3.5 3.2 5.6 5.7 6.8 2.2 50.9 42.2
Latvijas Fakti[27] March 2021 - 49.3 21.3 2.6 8.9 10.5 13.4 12.6 12.4 4.5 2.8 5.7 5.3 0 7.9 47.8 52.2
SKDS[28] March 2021 - 54.2 18.3 7.2 9.4 13.5 11.8 11.6 4.8 5.4 7.7 6.8 3.5 4.8 41.7 54.8
Factum[29] 1–28 Feb 2021 1,903 - 12.0 1.9 8.0 14.6 11.1 11.9 15.1 3.6 3.9 7.0 4.3 6.5 0.5 50.7 42.7
Latvijas Fakti[30] February 2021 - 55.9 20.5 1.8 8.2 12.9 10.2 17.5 11.6 4.1 3.2 5.0 4.8 0 3.0 44.7 55.1
Factum[31] 28-31 Jan 2021 1,250 - 11.8 2.5 7.5 14.0 12.4 12.3 13.7 3.0 4.1 6.8 3.5 8.3 0.3 50.1 41.5
7 Jan 2021 A new party - LuK - is established
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Dec. S KPV LV JKP AP! NA ZZS JV LRA LKS P Others Lead Gov. Opp.
Factum[32] 1-17 Dec 2020 2,421 - 13 2 8 13 13 13 13 3 4 8 9 Tie 49 41
SKDS[33] December 2020 900 51.2 22.1 3.7 10.4 9.4 11.3 15.6 8.0 5.9 4.1 7.6 2.0 6.5 42.8 55.3
Factum[34] 11-30 Nov 2020 817 - 15 1 9 15 13 12 13 4 4 6 8 Tie 51 41
SKDS[35] November 2020 - 57.1 20.3 1.9 8.6 15.1 14.4 12.3 8.8 5.6 6.3 5.1 1.8 5.2 48.8 49.6
Factum[36] 26-30 Oct 2020 853 - 15 1 9 17 13 11 14 3 4 6 8 2 54 39
SKDS[37] 9-20 Oct 2020 889 57.9 19.5 3.3 11.1 15.4 11.1 13.5 9.3 5.2 4.8 5.7 1.2 4.1 50.2 48.7
Factum[38] 29 Sep-4 Oct 2020 442 - 15 2 8 17 13 9 15 4 3 7 8 2 55 38
SKDS[39] 11-22 Sep 2020 888 58.9 17.3 3.7 10.4 12.9 10.5 16.6 11.2 5.9 4.4 5.1 1.9 4.4 48.7 49.3
Factum[40] 1-24 Aug 2020 637 - 15 2 9 16 13 10 15 3 4 5 7 1 55 37
SKDS[41] 7-20 Aug 2020 900 56.4 21.6 3.4 8.2 13.8 9.2 19.0 11.7 6.7 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.6 46.3 52.5
Factum[42] 8-31 Jul 2020 1975 - 16 2 9 15 11 10 16 4 3 8 6 Tie 53 41
SKDS[43] July 2020 884 55.5 27.9 4.0 7.0 10.1 12.3 15.0 10.5 5.2 3.8 4.0 0.4 12.9 43.9 55.9
Factum[44] 1-30 Jun 2020 1461 - 15 2 9 15 11 10 17 5 3 8 7 2 54 42
SKDS[45] June 2020 891 51.6 25.0 3.5 8.1 11.2 10.9 17.2 9.9 5.4 4.3 3.3 1.2 7.8 43.6 55.2
SKDS[46] 23 May-2 June 2020 902 50.5 26.1 4.0 7.3 9.9 10.9 16.0 12.1 5.1 4.6 3.0 1.0 10.1 44.2 54.8
Factum[47] 18–31 May 2020 1182 - 16 2 9 13 11 9 18 4 3 8 7 2 53 40
Factum[48] 7-26 Apr 2020 1182 - 17 2 11 14 12 11 16 5 4 6 4 1 55 43
Factum[49] 4-28 Mar 2020 1994 - 18 2 13 13 12 12 13 5 4 7 4 5 53 46
SKDS[50] March 2020 903 54.1 27.5 4.1 8.9 10.4 10.8 16.0 10.8 5.4 2.8 2.8 0.7 11.5 45 54.5
Factum[51] 24-28 Feb 2020 783 - 18 3 11 12 12 13 14 5 4 6 3 4 52 46
SKDS[52] February 2020 873 50.8 24.2 2.6 8.1 10.6 10.6 15.6 12.6 6.5 3.9 4.3 1.0 8.6 44.5 54.5
Factum[53] 28 Jan-1 Feb 2020 684 - 21 2 11 11 12 10 16 5 3 7 3 5 52 46
SKDS[54] January 2020 900 56.2 24.2 3.6 10.9 9.6 11.2 15.5 10.9 5.2 4.4 3.2 1.4 8.7 46.2 52.5
Factum[55] 18-31 Dec 2019 1153 - 20 2 12 10 14 10 14 5 5 6 3 6 52 46
SKDS[56] 30 Nov-12 Dec 2019 887 54.1 24.8 3.3 10.9 8.5 12.8 14.8 12.6 3.7 4.1 4.4 0.2 10.0 48.1 51.8
Factum[57] 21-24 Nov 2019 966 - 20 3 13 10 12 10 16 4 4 6 3 4 54 44
SKDS[58] 2-12 Nov 2019 884 55.1 20.3 5.4 9.8 10.1 15.9 13.6 11.7 5.1 3.6 3.8 0 4.4 52.9 46.4
Factum[59] 15-22 Oct 2019 966 - 20 3 14 9 11 11 15 4 4 6 3 5 52 45
SKDS[60] 5-16 Oct 2019 909 56.8 23.1 4.5 12.0 9.3 13.1 14.3 11.6 3.9 3.9 5.0 0.9 8.8 50.5 50.2
Factum[61] 27-30 Sep 2019 489 - 19 2 15 10 10 10 17 5 4 5 3 2 55 43
SKDS[62] 26 Aug-18 Sep 2019 900 61.8 23.5 4.5 11.7 9.9 14.4 13.6 13.4 4.0 3.4 1.6 9.1 53.9 44.5
Factum[63] 27-30 Aug 2019 1152 - 18 4 16 10 11 11 17 4 4 4 2 1 58 41
SKDS[64] August 2019 - 63.3 25.4 4.1 10.0 9.8 11.4 13.1 13.9 4.6 3.9 3.3 0.5 11.5 49.2 50.3
Factum[65] 22-29 Jul 2019 989 - 18 2 15 10 15 10 15 4 6 4 2 3 57 42
SKDS[66] July 2019 - 57.9 25.4 2.8 8.6 9.8 10.9 13.1 14.7 6.2 4.0 3.6 0.9 10.7 46.8 52.3
Factum[67] 26-30 Jun 2019 860 - 17 4 10 12 15 9 17 6 4 6 1 Tie 58 42
SKDS[68] 7-17 Jun 2019 891 63.1 25.0 5.4 7.3 10.8 12.2 10.0 16.6 4.8 2.5 4.8 0.6 8.4 52.3 47.1
Factum[69] 1–28 May 2019 1079 - 17 4 10 10 16 8 16 4 4 7 4 1 56 40
SKDS[70] May 2019 - 64.8 27.0 3.7 12.2 9.1 13.3 13.6 9.4 6.2 2.3 2.9 0.3 13.4 47.7 52
Factum[71] 1–30 April 2019 1236 - 20 4 15 10 12 11 10 6 3 7 3 5 51 47
SKDS[72] April 2019 - 64.8 31.5 4.5 13.8 9.0 10.7 11.0 9.3 4.8 2.6 2.4 0.5 17.8 47.3 52.3
Factum[73] March 2019 - - 15 4 13 11 14 10 11 6 5 6 4 1 53 42
SKDS[74] March 2019 873 61.2 28.9 6.7 13.1 10.1 8.2 12.4 8.7 4.7 2.6 3.8 0.8 15.8 46.8 52.4
SKDS[75] February 2019 872 61.2 29.7 5.5 14.9 9.2 9.9 8.9 10.2 3.8 3.1 4.2 0.6 14.8 49.7 49.7
23 Jan 2019 The Kariņš cabinet is formed and wins the Saeima confidence vote
SKDS[76] 11-23 Jan 2019 906 68.4 25.4 10.4 17.7 9.8 11.3 11.8 5.8 7.7 7.7 55 37.2
SKDS[77] 1-12 Dec 2018 900 71.2 28.9 14.6 12.5 8.7 9.1 9.3 5.9 4.2 3.4 3.2 0.1 14.3 50.8 49
SKDS[78] 3-15 Nov 2018 833 71.2 26.8 14.4 15.0 9.9 8.7 9.4 6.9 3.8 2.4 2.6 0.1 11.8 54.9 45
SKDS[79] 13-23 Oct 2018 900 75.4 25.5 15.3 13.4 11.8 11.1 7.2 5.8 5.6 1.9 2.3 0.3 10.2 57.4 42.5
2018 election 6 Oct 2018 – 54.6 19.8 14.3 13.6 12.0 11.0 9.9 6.7 4.2 3.2 2.6 2.7 5.5 57.6 39.7

Turnout
Graph of predict turnout polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout
Factum 23-28 Feb 2021 1,499 50.3
Factum 1 Jan-2 Feb 2021 344 49.7
Factum 1-31 Dec 2021 818 48.5
Factum 1-30 Nov 2021 508 48.7
Factum 1-31 Oct 2021 1,147 50.2
Factum 1 Sep-1 Oct 2021 679 50.9
Factum 27-31 Aug 2021 710 52.4
Factum 27-31 Jul 2021 612 54.1
Factum 26-31 May 2021 576 52.1
Factum 26-30 Apr 2021 680 50.6
2018 election 6 Oct 2018 - 54.6

See also

Notes
  1. NST 0.6%
  2. S! 3.5%

References
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