Opinion polling for the 2019 Guatemalan general election
This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2019 Guatemalan general election, will be held in on 16 June 2019 with a run-off on 11 August 2019.
Second round
| Polling Firm | Date | Sample size | Giammattei Vamos |
Torres UNE |
None | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second round | 11 August | — | ||||
| Average[1] | 10 July–10 August | 6,021 | 53.23 | 46.76 | (N/A) | 6.47 |
| CID-Gallup[2] | 29 July–5 August | 1.216 | 54.9 | 45.1 | -- | -- |
| Prodatos[3] | 27 July–3 August | 1.201 | 50.3 | 32.1 | 17.6 | 18.2 |
| OPol Consultores[4] | 24–26 July | 2.400 | 44.7 | 49.1 | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| CID-Gallup[5] | 9–14 July | 1.204 | 40.6 | 33.4 | 25.9 | 7.2 |
| First round | 16 June | — | 12.1 | 22.1 | — | 10.0 |
| CID-Gallup[6] | 1–7 June | 1.204 | 11.6 | 22.6 | 22.9 | 1.0 |
| Prodatos[7] | 27 May–5 June | 1.004 | 54.0 | 32.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 |
Alternative scenarios
| Polling firm | Date | Sample size | Arzú PAN–Podemos |
Mulet Humanist |
Torres UNE |
None | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First round | 16 June | — | — | 11.2 | 25.5 | — | 14.3 |
| First round | 16 June | — | 6.1 | — | 25.5 | — | 19.4 |
| Prodatos[7] | 13 June | 1,004 | — | 42.0 | 36.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 |
| Prodatos[7] | 13 June | 1,004 | 46.0 | — | 33.0 | 21.0 | 13.0 |
| CID-Gallup[6] | 1–7 June | 1,204 | 36.0 | — | 33.0 | 31.0 | 3.0 |
First round
After resolutions
| Polling firm | Date | Sample size | Torres UNE |
Giammattei Vamos |
Arzú PAN–P |
Mulet PHG |
T. Cabrera MLP |
Farchi VIVA |
F. Cabrera Todos |
Estrada CREO |
Others | None | Lead | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential election | 16 June | — | 25.54 | 13.95 | 6.08 | 11.21 | 10.37 | 5.90 | 3.13 | 3.75 | |||||||||
| Average[8] | 15 June | 5,610 | 22.13 | 12.90 | 11.65 | 7.78 | 4.87 | 2.70 | 1.81 | 1.69 | 13.05 | 21.42 | 9.23 | ||||||
| Prodatos[7] | 13 June | 1,004 | 20.2 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 16.6 | 15.7 | 5.8 | ||||||
| CID-Gallup[6] | 30 May–7 June | 1,204 | 22.6 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 15.1 | 22.7 | 11.0 | ||||||
| CID-Gallup[9] | 21 May-25 May | 1,202 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 28.0 | 9.0 | ||||||
| OPol Consultores[10] | 20 May-23 May | 2,200 | 23.36 | 10.77 | 13.18 | 8.63 | 3.22 | 1.72 | 0.63 | 1.22 | 11.99 | 25.28 | 10.18 | ||||||
Before resolutions
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Giammattei Vamos |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
N/A | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CID-Gallup[11] | 15 May | 1,747 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 22.0 | 7.0 |
| On May 15, 2019, Thelma Aldana is out of the elections. | |||||||||||
| On May 13, 2019, Zury Rios is out of the elections. | |||||||||||
| TResearch | 15 April | 1,000 | 23.7 | — | — | 10.8 | 17.1 | 15.7 | — | 32.7 | 6.6 |
| TResearch | 14 April | 1,000 | 24.1 | — | — | 11.0 | 16.5 | 16.0 | — | 32.4 | 7.6 |
| TResearch | 13 April | 1,000 | 24.4 | — | — | 11.5 | 16.3 | 15.7 | — | 32.1 | 8.1 |
| TResearch | 12 April | 1,000 | 24.1 | — | — | 11.5 | 14.8 | 16.2 | — | 33.4 | 7.9 |
| TResearch | 11 April | 1,000 | 24.5 | — | — | 10.8 | 14.8 | 16.1 | — | 33.8 | 8.4 |
| TResearch | 10 April | 1,000 | 24.6 | — | — | 11.7 | 14.1 | 15.8 | — | 33.8 | 8.8 |
| TResearch | 9 April | 1,000 | 24.9 | — | — | 11.8 | 14.2 | 15.7 | — | 33.4 | 9.2 |
| TResearch | 8 April | 1,000 | 25.2 | — | — | 12.1 | 14.8 | 15.6 | — | 32.3 | 9.6 |
| TResearch | 7 April | 1,000 | 25.1 | — | — | 11.7 | 14.4 | 15.4 | — | 33.4 | 9.7 |
| TResearch | 6 April | 1,000 | 25.3 | — | — | 11.8 | 14.3 | 14.7 | — | 33.9 | 10.6 |
| TResearch | 5 April | 1,000 | 25.0 | — | — | 11.6 | 14.7 | 14.3 | — | 34.6 | 10.3 |
| TResearch | 4 April | 1,000 | 25.1 | — | — | 11.6 | 15.3 | 13.8 | — | 34.2 | 9.6 |
| TResearch | 3 April | 1,000 | 24.6 | — | — | 12.0 | 14.5 | 13.5 | — | 35.4 | 10.1 |
| TResearch | 2 April | 1,000 | 24.2 | — | — | 12.2 | 15.0 | 13.4 | — | 35.2 | 9.2 |
| TResearch | 1 April | 1,000 | 23.8 | — | — | 12.5 | 15.5 | 13.3 | — | 34.9 | 8.3 |
| Prodatos[12] | 19–27 March | 1,200 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 7.4 | 20.7 | 15.9 | 26.1 | 24 | 4.8 |
| March 18, 2019, the electoral campaign begins. | |||||||||||
| CID-Gallup[13] | 16–25 February | 1,258 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 17.7 | 7.9 | 40.9 | 11.1 | 7 |
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 28.1 | — | — | 14.4 | 6.1 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 21.2 | 10.5 |
| CID-Gallup[15] | 24 January–4 February | 1,815 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 46 | 10 | 7 |
Favorable or unfavorable opinions
Favorable opinions
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Estrada UCN |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Montenegro EG |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 36 | 8 | — | 11 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 9 | 31 |
Unfavorable opinions
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Estrada UCN |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Montenegro EG |
Mulet PHG |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 27 | 56 | — | 30 | 62 | 25 | 32 | — | 66 | 28 |
Most favorite for president
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Montenegro EG |
Mulet PHG |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | — |
Least favorite for president
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aldana Semilla |
Arzú PAN–P |
Escobar PC |
Galdámez FCN |
Giammattei Vamos |
Torres UNE |
Ríos Valor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CID-Gallup[6] | 1–7 June | 1,204 | — | 3.3 | — | 1.8 | 2.2 | 34.1 | — |
| CID-Gallup[11] | 8–13 May | 1,747 | 10 | 2 | — | — | — | 28 | 3 |
| CID-Gallup[13] | 16–25 February | 1,258 | 6.2 | 3.5 | — | 3.2 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 6.5 |
| Consulta Mitofsky[14] | 8–11 February | 1,000 | 12.6 | — | — | — | 2.0 | 40 | 4.4 |
References
- GEUN, GEUN (11 August 2019). "Final Polling Average". youtube.com.
- Gramajo, Jessica (7 August 2019). "Esto revela la encuesta electoral entre Torres y Giammattei". soy502.com (in Spanish).
- "Encuesta Libre: Intención de voto segunda vuelta elecciones Guatemala". Prensa Libre (in Spanish). 8 August 2019.
- Marín, Claudia (6 August 2019). "Sandra Torres encabeza segunda ronda en elecciones de Guatemala". elmundo.cr (in Spanish).
- Gramajo, Jessica (17 July 2019). "Encuesta revela quién va a la cabeza en la Segunda Vuelta". soy502.com (in Spanish).
- Segunda Encuesta Electoral (junio de 2019)
- Segunda Encuesta Libre (junio de 2019)
- "Final Polling Average for 2019 Guatemalan Presidenial Election 1st Round(GEHSC.en)".
- https://www.soy502.com/sites/default/files/informe_op_especial_guatemala_mayo_2019_luis_haug_-_cid_gallup_v3.pdf
- Torres, Arzú, Giammattei y Mulet lideran intención de votos, según estudio.
- Estos son los resultados de la reciente encuesta de Cid Gallup
- Cuatro candidatos acaparan mayor intención de voto
- Nueva encuesta electoral de Cid-Gallup hasta finales de febrero
- "ASÍ VAN... ESTUDIO ELECTORAL GUATEMALA (FEB/2019)". Consulta Mitofsky (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 12 April 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
- "Carrera por la presidencia de Guatemala inicia". CID-Gallup (in Spanish). 13 February 2019. Archived from the original on 15 February 2019. Retrieved 14 February 2019.
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