Next Valencian regional election

The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election.

Next Valencian regional election
No later than 28 May 2023
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Ximo Puig Carlos Mazón Mónica Oltra
Party PSPV–PSOE PP Compromís
Leader since 31 March 2012 3 July 2021 31 January 2015
Leader's seat Castellón — Valencia
Last election 27 seats, 24.2% 19 seats, 19.1% 17 seats, 16.7%
Current seats 27 23 17
Seats needed 23 27 33
 
Leader Ruth Merino José María Llanos Héctor Illueca
Party Cs Vox Unides Podem–EUPV
Leader since 26 March 2021 26 March 2019 10 September 2021
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia Valencia
Last election 18 seats, 17.7% 10 seats, 10.6% 8 seats, 8.1%
Current seats 13 9 8
Seats needed 37 41 42
Incumbent President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE


The ruling "Botànic Agreement" of left-of-centre parties was re-elected in the 2019 election for a second term in office, albeit with a diminished majority of 52 to 47. Opinion polls held in the ensuing years saw a collapse of the vote for Citizens (Cs), particularly following the 2021 Madrilenian election, and its capitalization by both the People's Party (PP) and far-right Vox, to the point of putting at risk a new Botànic majority.

Overview

Electoral system

The Corts Valencianes are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Corts is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Valencians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province did not exceed three times that of any other).[1][3]

Election date

The term of the Corts Valencianes expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 April 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 28 April 2023. The election decree must be published in the DOGV no later than 4 April 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 28 May 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

By late 2021, speculation emerged on possible snap elections in Andalusia and Castile and León to be held at some point during the spring of 2022,[5] with it transpiring that President Ximo Puig was evaluating the opportunity of an early election in the Valencian Community to be held simultaneously with those.[6][7] However, Puig publicly and repeatedly rejected the idea of a snap election being held,[8] an opinion he reiterated following the announcement of a snap election in Castile and León for 13 February 2022.[9]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the present time.[10]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSPV–PSOE 27 27
People's Parliamentary Group PP 23[lower-alpha 1] 23
Commitment Parliamentary Group Compromís 17 17
Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 13 13
Vox Valencian Community Parliamentary Group Vox 9 9
United We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 6 8
EUPV 2
Non-Inscrits INDEP 2[lower-alpha 2] 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSPV–PSOE
List
 Ximo Puig Social democracy 24.21% 27 Y [14]
PP
List
 Carlos Mazón Conservatism
Christian democracy		 19.12% 19 N [15]
Cs
List
 Ruth Merino Liberalism 17.70% 18 N [16]
Compromís
List
 Mónica Oltra Valencian nationalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics		 16.68% 17 Y
Vox
List
 José María Llanos Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 10.59% 10 N
Unides
Podem–EUPV
List
 Héctor Illueca Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 8.10% 8 Y [17]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary
Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 April 2019 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1][p 2][p 3] 14–28 Dec 2021 1,700 ? 28.3
30/32		 27.6
30/31		 4.5
0/2		 14.7
14		 14.9
15/16		 7.5
6/7		 0.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4] 15 Dec 2021 ? ? 25.0
28		 28.5
32		 3.0
0		 16.0
15		 16.3
17		 7.5
7		 3.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 5] 2–12 Nov 2021 1,000 67.6 24.1
26/27		 29.3
30/31		 5.2
4		 15.0
15/16		 15.9
15/16		 7.2
7		 5.2
GAD3/Cs[p 6][p 7] 15 Oct–4 Nov 2021 2,404 ? 29.2
31/32		 28.1
30/31		 5.9
5		 13.1
12/13		 14.8
15		 5.3
4/5		 1.1
Electocracia[p 8] 21–26 Oct 2021 1,000 ? 25.8
27/28		 28.6
31/32		 3.1
0		 15.9
16/17		 16.5
18/19		 6.6
5/6		 2.8
PP[p 9] 3 Oct 2021 ? ? ?
27/30		 ?
27/30		 ?
0		 ?
14/15		 ?
20/21		 ?
7		 Tie
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 10][p 11] 28 Sep–1 Oct 2021 1,800 ? 26.7
30		 27.8
31		 3.0
0		 15.7
14		 18.2
19		 5.9
5		 1.1
SyM Consulting/EPDA[p 12] 28–30 Sep 2021 1,565 70.4 24.5
26/28		 29.5
30/33		 2.0
0		 17.1
17		 15.9
17		 6.5
7/8		 5.0
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 13][p 14] 20–29 Sep 2021 750 ? 31.3
36		 21.6
24		 3.4
0		 15.4
16		 12.8
13		 9.2
10		 9.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15] 31 Jul 2021 ? ? 27.1
30		 26.9
30		 3.3
0		 15.9
16		 15.9
16		 7.8
7		 0.9
SyM Consulting/EPDA[p 16] 14–18 Jul 2021 1,066 71.3 24.4
26/27		 26.3
28/29		 5.2
3		 17.0
17		 15.7
15/18		 8.0
7/8		 1.9
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 17] 21–30 Jun 2021 1,800 ? 26.6
29		 27.0
30		 3.4
0		 16.1
16		 17.6
19		 6.1
5		 0.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18] 30 Apr 2021 850 ? 28.1
32		 25.6
30		 4.5
0		 16.6
16		 13.5
13		 8.1
8		 2.5
Sigma Dos/Las Provincias[p 19] 12–17 Apr 2021 1,200 ? 29.7
31/33		 24.9
27		 6.0
5		 16.4
15/17		 13.6
13/14		 6.3
5/6		 4.8
Metroscopia/PP[p 20][p 21] 8–13 Apr 2021 1,500 ? 28.0
29/31		 28.2
30/31		 2.3
0		 13.3
12/14		 17.8
18/19		 7.5
7/8		 0.2
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 22] 1–5 Mar 2021 1,800 ? 28.4
31		 22.2
23		 7.0
6		 15.5
15		 17.6
19		 6.9
5		 6.2
GAD3/Cs[p 23] 14–20 Oct 2020 1,002 ? 31.3
33/34		 24.2
25/27		 11.8
12		 11.2
10		 12.0
12/13		 6.1
5		 7.1
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 24] 1–7 Oct 2020 1,800 ? 27.4
29		 24.7
26		 7.9
8		 17.3
17		 13.4
14		 7.0
5		 2.7
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 25] 28 Sep–5 Oct 2020 750 ? 32.7
36		 19.6
21		 7.5
7		 14.8
15		 11.1
11		 9.9
9		 13.1
SyM Consulting/EPDA[p 26] 24–27 Sep 2020 1,706 73.2 23.6
25/26		 18.4
19/20		 9.5
7/8		 16.8
17/18		 16.8
18		 11.8
10/12		 5.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 27] 31 Jul 2020 850 ? 25.8
27		 23.9
26		 9.0
9		 16.6
16		 12.8
13		 7.8
8		 1.9
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 28] 17–20 Jun 2020 1,000 65.7 27.3
28		 25.6
27		 6.8
8		 16.7
15		 12.8
13		 8.3
8		 1.7
SyM Consulting[p 29][p 30] 19–21 May 2020 1,695 72.6 24.6
25/26		 23.4
25/26		 12.0
11		 15.1
14/15		 13.9
14/16		 7.4
7/8		 1.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 31][p 32] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 26.2
27		 23.6
25		 8.8
9		 16.3
16		 12.6
13		 8.4
9		 2.6
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 69.8 27.6
(31)		 23.0
(24)		 7.7
(7)		 7.0
(5)		 18.5
(19)		 13.4
(13)		 4.6
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 33] 23 Sep–1 Oct 2019 900 ? 32.6
35		 21.8
22		 10.0
10		 16.5
18		 8.7
8		 7.4
6		 10.8
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 N/A 62.5 33.0
(36)		 22.6
(25)		 14.3
(15)		 8.4
(7)		 7.2
(7)		 9.7
(9)		 10.4
2019 regional election 28 Apr 2019 N/A 73.7 24.2
27		 19.1
19		 17.7
18		 16.7
17		 10.6
10		 8.1
8		 5.1

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Notes
  1. Jesús Salmerón, Cristina Gabarda, José Antonio Martínez and Sunsi Sanchis, former Cs legislators,[11] jointed the PP group in September 2021.[12]
  2. Vicente Fernández, former Cs legislator;[12] Rebeca Serna, former Vox legislator.[13]

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "La subida del PP y de Vox reduce el colchón de Puig a un diputado en la Comunidad Valenciana". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 January 2022.
  2. "Encuesta Comunidad Valenciana". El Mundo (in Spanish). 8 January 2022.
  3. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA. Encuesta SigmaDos 08/01/2022: PODEM-EUPV 7,5% (6/7), COMPROMÍS 14,7% (14), PSOE 28,3% (30/32), Cs 4,5% (0/2), PP 27,6% (30/31), VOX 14,9% (15/16)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 January 2022.
  4. "La derecha ya toca las puertas del Palau de la Generalitat". ESdiario (in Spanish). 16 December 2021.
  5. "El PP ganaría y arrebataría la Generalitat a Puig con un pacto con Vox". La Razón (in Spanish). 29 November 2021.
  6. "El PP ganaría hoy a Ximo Puig en la Comunidad Valenciana gracias a Cs, según un sondeo interno". El Español (in Spanish). 19 November 2021.
  7. "Estimación elecciones Comunidad Valenciana". GAD3 (in Spanish). 19 November 2021.
  8. "Una encuesta da al PP la victoria en la Comunidad Valenciana con un empate técnico entre bloques". El Español (in Spanish). 5 November 2021.
  9. "Los sondeos internos del PP dan impulso a Mazón y Catalá en la batalla por Valencia". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 3 October 2021.
  10. "Encuesta EsdiarioCV: el PP gana la Generalitat con Vox por la caída de Compromís". ESdiario (in Spanish). 2 October 2021.
  11. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA. Encuesta Demoscopia y Servicios 02/10/2021: PODEM-EUPV 5,9% (5), COMPROMÍS 15,7% (14), PSOE 26,7% (30), Cs 3,0%, PP 27,8% (31), VOX 18,2% (19)". Electograph (in Spanish). 2 October 2021.
  12. "El PP se afianza como primera fuerza pero la izquierda aún supera a la derecha a nivel autonómico" (PDF). El Periódico de Aquí (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  13. "El Botànic llega fuerte a la nueva normalidad y aumenta su ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  14. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA · Encuesta Invest Group 08/10/2021: PODEM-EUPV 9,2% (10), COMPROMÍS 15,4% (16), PSOE 31,3% (36), Cs 3,4%, PP 21,6% (24), VOX 12,8% (13)". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 October 2021.
  15. "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana (31JL): el Botànic conservaría la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 2 September 2021.
  16. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 30/07/2021: PODEM-EUPV 8,0% (7/8), COMPROMÍS 17,0% (17), PSOE 24,4% (26/27), Cs 5,2% (3), PP 26,3% (28/29), VOX 15,7% (15/18)". Electograph (in Spanish). 31 July 2021.
  17. "Encuesta ESdiario: El PP gana las elecciones y Podemos salva al Botànic". ESdiario (in Spanish). 2 July 2021.
  18. "EP Comunitat Valenciana (30A): el Botànic en plena forma. La subida de PP y Vox no contrarresta del todo el bajón de Cs". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 April 2021.
  19. "Puig amplía la mayoría del Botánico pese al crecimiento de PP y Vox". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 25 April 2021.
  20. "La última encuesta de Bonig: PP y Vox se comen a Cs y empatan con el Botànic de Puig". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 12 May 2021.
  21. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA. Encuesta Metroscopia 12/05/2021 (interna PP): PODEM-EUPV 7,5% (7/8), COMPROMÍS 13,3% (12/14), PSOE 28,0% (29/31), Cs 2,3%, PP 28,2% (30/31), VOX 17,8% (18/19)". Electograph (in Spanish). 12 May 2021.
  22. "Encuesta ESDiario: Más ventaja del PSPV, Vox se acerca al PP y Compromís, baja". ESdiario (in Spanish). 7 March 2021.
  23. "El centro derecha recuperaría la Generalitat, según un sondeo de Cs". La Provincia (in Spanish). 7 November 2020.
  24. "El descalabro de Ciudadanos abre a Puig y Oltra las puertas de un tercer mandato". ESdiario (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  25. "El bloque de la izquierda resiste a la pandemia y aumenta su ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2020.
  26. "La izquierda mantendría la Generalitat Valenciana pese a la gran subida de Vox a costa de Ciudadanos, según un sondeo de SyM Consulting para El Periódico de Aquí". El Periódico de Aquí (in Spanish). 8 October 2020.
  27. "ElectoPanel (31Jul): el Botànic se mantiene por el empuje de Compromis. Subidón de EH Bildu tras el 12J". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 July 2020.
  28. "Sondeo ESdiario: El PSPV de Puig resiste ante la escalada del PP". ESdiario (in Spanish). 23 June 2020.
  29. "Estimación resultados electorales. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  30. "COMUNITAT VALENCIANA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 27/05/2020: UP-EUPV 7,4% (7/8), COMPROMÍS 15,1% (14/15), PSOE 24,6% (25/26), Cs 12,0% (11), PP 23,4% (25/26), VOX 13,9% (14/16)". Electograph (in Spanish). 27 May 2020.
  31. "EP (17My): Com. Valenciana – desplome de Cs que aprovechan PP y Vox. Se mantiene el Botanic". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  32. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  33. "La izquierda toma ventaja". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2019.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 5/1982, de 1 de julio, de Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Valenciana". Organic Law No. 1 of 1 July 1982. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 1/1987, de 31 de marzo, Electoral Valenciana". Law No. 2 of 31 March 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  5. Dávila, Carlos (5 November 2021). "Persistente runrún electoral". El Día de Valladolid (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  6. Hernández, Marisol; Robero, Juanma (14 October 2021). "Puig y Moreno Bonilla se miran de reojo para adelantar las elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  7. Martín Beaumont, Antonio (8 November 2021). "Moncloa teme elecciones en Andalucía y Valencia". La Razón (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  8. "Puig: "En ningún caso habrá adelanto electoral y tampoco está en la agenda una renovación del Consell"" (in Spanish). Valencia: Europa Press. 15 November 2021. Retrieved 30 November 2021.
  9. "Puig rechaza un adelanto electoral y pone en valor la estabilidad del Botànic". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). Valencia. 26 December 2021. Retrieved 26 December 2021.
  10. "Grupos parlamentarios". Corts Valencianes (in Spanish). Retrieved 11 October 2019.
  11. "Cuatro de los 18 diputados de Ciudadanos en las Corts Valencianes dejan el partido y se pasan al grupo de no adscritos". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 7 May 2021. Retrieved 28 May 2021.
  12. "Cuatro tránsfugas de Cs en las Cortes Valencianas se pasan al PP en vísperas de la Convención de Casado". El Español (in Spanish). 29 September 2021. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  13. "La diputada Rebeca Serna deja Vox y pasa al grupo de no adscritos". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). 23 August 2021. Retrieved 23 August 2021.
  14. Enguix, Salvador (3 September 2021). "Ximo Puig afronta sin oposición su reelección como líder del PSPV". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
  15. Enguix, Salvador (3 July 2021). "Carlos Mazón elegido por unanimidad de los populares valencianos como nuevo líder". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 3 July 2021.
  16. "Ruth Merino, nueva síndica de Ciudadanos en Les Corts tras la marcha de Toni Cantó". Valencia Plaza (in Spanish). Valencia. 26 March 2021. Retrieved 1 January 2022.
  17. Rallo, A. (10 September 2021). "Illueca releva a Dalmau y confirma la necesidad de diálogo en la crisis de Podemos". LaS pROVINCIAS (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
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