Next Thai general election

Following a political crisis in Thailand, the military staged a coup d'état in 2014, ousting the civilian caretaker government. The military junta, known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), rose to power under the leadership of Prayut Chan-o-cha as Prime Minister. In 2017, the NCPO drafted a new constitution and held a referendum to approve it. Some suspect that, with the new constitution, the military seeks to hobble political parties in order to create disposable coalition governments. The military would then remain in power, whatever the outcome of the election may be.[2]

In 2019, after numerous delays, the junta finally held a general election on March 24. The elections were seen as a skewed race in which Prayut had an unfair advantage, with the senate wholly appointed by the junta and the constituencies redrawn last-minute.[3][4] After the election, the pro-junta Palang Pracharath party formed a coalition government, with Prayut selected by the parliament for another term as Prime Minister.

Prayut began his second term as Prime Minister on June 9, 2019. The term will end in 2023.[5] According to the constitution, a Prime Minister can only serve for a maximum of 8 years. However, the legal office of the Thai Parliament stated that Prayut can serve until 2027 if he is selected by the Parliament again, not counting his first term which started in 2014.[6][7]

Since 2020, anti-government protests occurred throughout the country, while the COVID-19 pandemic damaged Thailand's already slowing down economy.[8] Prayut's cabinet and coalition parties were facing disunity, with plans to oust Prayut in a no-confidence vote reportedly being orchestrated by Thammanat Prompow in September 2021.[9] Some have speculated that a cabinet reshuffle or a parliament dissolution may be underway, but Prayut denied this.[10] Bangkok Post paraphrased Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political scientist at the National Institute of Development Administration: [Prime minister] "Prayut has downplayed speculation of an early election in the middle of the year by announcing he will stay in office to host the 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in November".[11] However, in March 2022, Bangkok Post paraphrased Prayut, saying that he "refused to pledge that he will complete his term or outright deny the possibility of an early House dissolution before the official end of his tenure in March 2023."[12]

According to the 2017 constitution drafted under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the 500 members of the House of Representatives are elected using a form of mixed-member proportional representation, in which voters cast a single vote. 350 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, with the remaining 150 being levelling seats, allocated to ensure parties receive a number of seats proportionate to their national vote total.[13] As in the preceding 2019 election, the parliament's vote for Prime Minister will take place in a joint session with the 250-seat senate, according to the constitution's provisional terms. As the term of the NCPO-appointed senate lasts until 2024, it is expected to exert influence into this election as well.[14]