Next Balearic regional election

Next Balearic regional election
	No later than 25 June 2023; (Tentatively scheduled for 28 May 2023)
All 59 seats in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands; 30 seats needed for a majority
	Opinion polls
Incumbent President; Francina Armengol; PSOE	; ;

The next Balearic regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 25 June 2023, to elect the 11th Parliament of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands. All 59 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of the Balearic Islands is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Balearic Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Balearic Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Balearic Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Balearic people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 59 members of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza and Formentera, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats: 33 for Mallorca, 13 for Menorca, 12 for Ibiza and 1 for Formentera.[1][3]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Balearic Islands (BOIB), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 May 2023. The election decree shall be published in the BOIB no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 25 June 2023.[1][3][4]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of the Balearic Islands and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a sixty-day period from the first ballot, the Parliament shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time.

Current parliamentary composition[5]
Groups		Parties		Legislators
Groups		Parties		Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSIB–PSOE	19	19
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	16	16
	United We Can Parliamentary Group		Podemos	5	6
	United We Can Parliamentary Group		EM–EU	1	6
	Citizens Parliamentary Group		Cs	4	4
	More for Mallorca Parliamentary Group		PSM–Entesa	4	4
	Vox–ACTUA Balearics Parliamentary Group		Vox	3	3
	El Pi–Proposal for the Isles Parliamentary Group		El Pi	3	3
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		MxMe	2	3
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		PSIB–PSOE	1[lower-alpha 2]	3
	Non-Inscrits		INDEP	1[lower-alpha 3]	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Votes (%)	Seats	Gov.	Ref.
	PSIB–PSOE	List Socialist Party of the Balearic Islands (PSIB–PSOE)		Francina Armengol	Social democracy	27.37%	19	Y	[8]
	PP	List People's Party (PP) Union of Formentera (Sa Unió)		Marga Prohens	Conservatism Christian democracy	22.20%	16	N	[9]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Patricia Guasp	Liberalism	9.90%	5	N	[10]
	Podemos– EUIB	List We Can (Podemos) United Left of the Balearic Islands (EUIB) – Communist Party of the Balearic Islands (PCIB) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV)		Juan Pedro Yllanes	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	9.74%	6	Y
	Més	List Socialist Party of Majorca–Agreement (PSM–E) InitiativeGreens (IV) Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)		Lluís Apesteguia	Left-wing nationalism Democratic socialism Green politics	9.18%	4	Y	[11]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Jorge Campos	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	8.12%	3	N
	El Pi	List Proposal for the Isles (El Pi)		Tolo Gili	Regionalism Liberalism	7.71%[lower-alpha 1]	3	N	[12] [13]
	MxMe	List More for Menorca (MxMe)		Josep Castells	Left-wing nationalism Democratic socialism Green politics	1.41%	2	N
	GxF	List People for Formentera (GxF)		Silvia Tur	Environmentalism Democratic socialism	0.47%	1	N

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 30 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										Lead
IBES/Última Hora[p 1]	1–10 Mar 2022	1,000	?	20.8 13	26.1 18	7.2 3	12.5 8	9.2 4	14.6 7	5.3 2	1.8 3	? 1	5.3
Data10/OKDiario[p 2]	22–23 Sep 2021	1,000	?	25.7 17	28.3 21	3.2 0	8.3 5	9.5 4	12.5 7	6.4 2	1.5 2	0.4 1	2.6
IBES/Última Hora[p 3][p 4]	8–12 Jun 2021	1,000	?	24.5 16/17	26.9 18/20	6.8 3/4	10.1 5/6	8.9 4	9.9 4/5	6.9 2/3	1.4 2	? 1	2.4
IBES/Última Hora[p 5][p 6]	8–12 Jun 2020	1,000	?	28.7 19/21	24.2 17/18	7.0 3/4	9.0 5/6	8.2 3/4	10.4 3/5	5.8 2	1.3 2	? 1	4.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 7][p 8]	1 Apr–15 May 2020	?	?	26.8 19	25.3 19	5.9 3	9.7 5	10.4 4	8.2 3	7.4 3	1.3 2	0.6 1	1.5
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/A	56.8	25.4 (18)	22.8 (15)	7.4 (4)	18.1 (12)	4.0 (0)	17.1 (10)	–	[lower-alpha 4]	–	2.6

2019 regional election	26 May 2019	N/A	53.9	27.4 19	22.2 16	9.9 5	9.7 6	9.2 4	8.1 3	7.3 3	1.4 2	0.5 1	5.2

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										?	N	Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										?	N	Lead
SocioMétrica[p 9]	13–18 May 2021	1,100	11.4	15.4	–	–	–	10.1	–	–	–	–	–	4.0
November 2019 general election	10 Nov 2019	N/A	14.8	13.3	4.3	10.5	2.3	9.9	–	[lower-alpha 4]	–	N/A	41.3	1.5

2019 regional election	26 May 2019	N/A	15.1	12.3	5.5	5.4	5.1	4.5	4.1	0.8	0.3	N/A	44.2	2.8

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Balearic Islands.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									Other/ None/ Not care	Lead

			Armengol PSIB	Company PP	Prohens PP	Guasp Cs	Yllanes UP	Ensenyat Més	Campos Vox	Amengual El Pi
IBES/Última Hora[p 3]	8–12 Jun 2021	1,000	27.1	–	26.9	9.6	8.6	11.2	8.7	7.9	13.0	0.2
SocioMétrica[p 9]	13–18 May 2021	1,100	15.5	14.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	69.6	0.6

Notes

Results for El Pi (7.30, 0 seats%) and PxE (0.41%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.
Antonio Jesús Sanz, representing the GxF+PSOE+EU coalition for the single-member constituency of Formentera.[6]
Maxo Benalal, former Cs legislator.[7]
Within Més Esquerra.

References

Opinion poll sources

"Baleares gira a la derecha y abre la puerta al cambio político por la caída del PSIB". Última Hora (in Spanish). 20 March 2022.
"El PP gana las elecciones en Baleares, el PSOE pierde 2 escaños y Vox se dispara al pasar de 3 a 7 diputados". OKDiario (in Spanish). 23 September 2021.
"El PP vuelve a ser el partido más votado pero queda lejos del Govern". Última Hora (in Spanish). 4 July 2021.
"ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta IBES 04/07/2021: PODEM-EUIB 10,1% (5/6), MÉS 8,9% (4), MxME 1,4% (2), GxF-PSOE-EUIB (1), PSOE 24,5% (16/17), PI 6,9% (2/3), Cs 6,8% (3/4), PP 26,9% (18/20), VOX 9,9% (4/5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 July 2021.
"Los partidos de izquierdas ganan pero Armengol sube a costa de sus socios". Última Hora (in Spanish). 21 June 2020.
"ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta IBES 21/06/2020: UNIDES PODEM 9,0% (5/6), MÉS 8,2% (3/4), MxME 1,3% (2), GxF-PSOE-EUIB (1), PSOE 28,7% (19/21), EL PI 5,8% (2), Cs 7,0% (3/4), PP 24,2% (17/18), VOX 10,4% (3/5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 June 2020.
"EP (17My): Baleares – sube el PP, pero Armengol podría mantener el Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
"MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
"El PP avanza en las encuestas de Baleares y supera al PSOE en intención de voto". MallorcaDiario.com (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.

Other

"Ley Orgánica 1/2007, de 28 de febrero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de las Illes Balears". Organic Law No. 1 of 28 February 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 September 2017.
Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
"Ley 8/1986, de 26 de noviembre, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de las Islas Baleares". Law No. 8 of 26 November 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 February 2020.
"Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
"The parliamentary hemicycle" (PDF). parlamentib.es (in Catalan). Parliament of the Balearic Islands. Retrieved 15 June 2020.
Radioilla (14 September 2021). "Antonio Jesús Sanz, nou diputat per Formentera". radioillaformentera.cat (in Catalan). Retrieved 15 September 2021.
"El diputat Maxo Benalal adquireix la condició de diputat no adscrit". www.parlamentib.es (in Catalan). Parliament of the Balearic Islands. 13 September 2021. Retrieved 15 September 2021.
Adrover, Miquel (21 October 2021). "Armengol y Cladera proclamadas secretarias generales socialistas de Balears y Mallorca". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 October 2021.
Mestre, J.F. (24 July 2021). "Marga Prohens asume la presidencia del PP balear arropada por la cúpula nacional". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 July 2021.
Cortés, Alexander (28 September 2020). "Patricia Guasp, nueva líder de Ciudadanos en Baleares". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 4 July 2021.
"Lluís Apesteguia guanya les primàries de MÉS al Parlament amb un 56% dels vots". Ara Balears (in Catalan). 24 October 2021. Retrieved 24 October 2021.
Adrover, Miquel (25 September 2021). "El 'melianista' Tolo Gili gana el congreso de El Pi con el 56,7% de los votos". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 25 September 2021.
"La coalición Proposta per Eivissa se disuelve tras la incorporación de Más Eivissa a El PI" (in Spanish). Ibiza: Europa Press. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 4 July 2021.

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[Pi-1] Results for El Pi (7.30, 0 seats%) and PxE (0.41%, 0 seats) in the 2019 election.

[8] Antonio Jesús Sanz, representing the GxF+PSOE+EU coalition for the single-member constituency of Formentera.[6]

[10] Maxo Benalal, former Cs legislator.[7]

[ME-25] Within Més Esquerra.

[17] "Baleares gira a la derecha y abre la puerta al cambio político por la caída del PSIB". Última Hora (in Spanish). 20 March 2022.

[18] "El PP gana las elecciones en Baleares, el PSOE pierde 2 escaños y Vox se dispara al pasar de 3 a 7 diputados". OKDiario (in Spanish). 23 September 2021.

[IBESJun21-19] "El PP vuelve a ser el partido más votado pero queda lejos del Govern". Última Hora (in Spanish). 4 July 2021.

[20] "ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta IBES 04/07/2021: PODEM-EUIB 10,1% (5/6), MÉS 8,9% (4), MxME 1,4% (2), GxF-PSOE-EUIB (1), PSOE 24,5% (16/17), PI 6,9% (2/3), Cs 6,8% (3/4), PP 26,9% (18/20), VOX 9,9% (4/5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 4 July 2021.

[21] "Los partidos de izquierdas ganan pero Armengol sube a costa de sus socios". Última Hora (in Spanish). 21 June 2020.

[22] "ILLES BALEARS. Encuesta IBES 21/06/2020: UNIDES PODEM 9,0% (5/6), MÉS 8,2% (3/4), MxME 1,3% (2), GxF-PSOE-EUIB (1), PSOE 28,7% (19/21), EL PI 5,8% (2), Cs 7,0% (3/4), PP 24,2% (17/18), VOX 10,4% (3/5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 June 2020.

[23] "EP (17My): Baleares – sube el PP, pero Armengol podría mantener el Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.

[24] "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.

[SMMay21-26] "El PP avanza en las encuestas de Baleares y supera al PSOE en intención de voto". MallorcaDiario.com (in Spanish). 28 May 2021.

[BalSoA-2] "Ley Orgánica 1/2007, de 28 de febrero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de las Illes Balears". Organic Law No. 1 of 28 February 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 September 2017.

[3] Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.

[BalELaw-4] "Ley 8/1986, de 26 de noviembre, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de las Islas Baleares". Law No. 8 of 26 November 1986. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 February 2020.

[SpaELaw-5] "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.

[6] "The parliamentary hemicycle" (PDF). parlamentib.es (in Catalan). Parliament of the Balearic Islands. Retrieved 15 June 2020.

[7] Radioilla (14 September 2021). "Antonio Jesús Sanz, nou diputat per Formentera". radioillaformentera.cat (in Catalan). Retrieved 15 September 2021.

[9] "El diputat Maxo Benalal adquireix la condició de diputat no adscrit". www.parlamentib.es (in Catalan). Parliament of the Balearic Islands. 13 September 2021. Retrieved 15 September 2021.

[11] Adrover, Miquel (21 October 2021). "Armengol y Cladera proclamadas secretarias generales socialistas de Balears y Mallorca". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 October 2021.

[12] Mestre, J.F. (24 July 2021). "Marga Prohens asume la presidencia del PP balear arropada por la cúpula nacional". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 July 2021.

[13] Cortés, Alexander (28 September 2020). "Patricia Guasp, nueva líder de Ciudadanos en Baleares". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 4 July 2021.

[14] "Lluís Apesteguia guanya les primàries de MÉS al Parlament amb un 56% dels vots". Ara Balears (in Catalan). 24 October 2021. Retrieved 24 October 2021.

[15] Adrover, Miquel (25 September 2021). "El 'melianista' Tolo Gili gana el congreso de El Pi con el 56,7% de los votos". Diario de Mallorca (in Spanish). Palma. Retrieved 25 September 2021.

[16] "La coalición Proposta per Eivissa se disuelve tras la incorporación de Más Eivissa a El PI" (in Spanish). Ibiza: Europa Press. 30 April 2021. Retrieved 4 July 2021.

Elections in the Balearic Islands
Regional elections	1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 Next
General elections	1977 1979 1982 1986 1989 1993 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 2015 2016 2019 (Apr) 2019 (Nov)
European Parliament elections	1987 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Island Council elections	1979 2007 2011 2015 2019
Local elections	1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019

(← 2010s) Regional elections in Spain in the 2020s
2020	July: Basque Country Galicia
2021	February: Catalonia May: Madrid
2022	February: Castile and León June: Andalusia
2023	May(*): Asturias Canary Islands Cantabria Castilla–La Mancha Ceuta La Rioja Madrid Melilla Murcia
Other	2023 or earlier: Aragon Balearic Islands Extremadura Navarre Valencian Community 2024 or earlier: Basque Country Galicia 2025 or earlier: Catalonia 2026 or earlier: Castile and León
(*) Lists autonomous communities with a fixed election date for May 2023. This listing does not preclude these communities holding additional, earlier elections under their statutory provisions.