Next Aragonese regional election

The next Aragonese regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 25 June 2023, to elect the 11th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes will be up for election.

Next Aragonese regional election
No later than 25 June 2023
(Tentatively scheduled for 28 May 2023)
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon
34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Javier Lambán Jorge Azcón Daniel Pérez Calvo
Party PSOE PP Cs
Leader since 31 March 2012 19 December 2021 2 March 2019
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 24 seats, 30.8% 16 seats, 20.9% 12 seats, 16.7%
Current seats 24 16 12
Seats needed 10 18 22
 
Leader Maru Díaz José Luis Soro Santiago Morón
Party Podemos–AV CHA Vox
Leader since 27 November 2018 10 February 2012 22 April 2019
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 5 seats, 8.1% 3 seats, 6.3% 3 seats, 6.1%
Current seats 5 3 3
Seats needed 29 31 31
 
Leader Arturo Aliaga Álvaro Sanz
Party PAR IU
Leader since 29 November 2014 27 May 2017
Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza
Last election 3 seats, 5.1% 1 seat, 3.3%
Current seats 3 1
Seats needed 31 33
Incumbent President

Javier Lambán
PSOE


The previous election had seen the establishment of a coalition government by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), Podemos, Aragonese Union (CHA) and the Aragonese Party (PAR) under two-term Aragonese president Javier Lambán.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2] The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1][3]

The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon (BOA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 26 May 2023. The election decree shall be published in the BOA no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 25 June 2023.[1][3][5]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

In November 2021, following emerging speculation on possible snap elections in Andalusia and Castile and León to be called by the spring of 2022,[6] as well as a similar move in the Valencian Community being considered by Valencian president Ximo Puig,[7] it transpired that Lambán had been evaluating the opportunity of a simultaneous early election in Aragon in order to catch the regional People's Party (PP) leaderless and off-guard and to benefit from an improving economic situation.[8] Lambán himself ruled out such possibility on 11 November and maintained that the election would be held in May 2023.[9]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the present time.[10]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 24 24
People's Parliamentary Group in the Cortes of Aragon PP 16 16
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry Parliamentary Group Cs 12 12
We Can–Equo Aragon Parliamentary Group Podemos 5 5
Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group CHA 3 3
Vox Parliamentary Group in Aragon Vox 3 3
Aragonese Parliamentary Group PAR 3 3
Mixed Parliamentary Group IU 1 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3][5]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Javier Lambán Social democracy 30.84% 24 Y [11]
[12]
PP
List
 Jorge Azcón Conservatism
Christian democracy		 20.87% 16 N [13]
[14]
Cs
List
 Daniel Pérez Calvo Liberalism 16.67% 12 N
Podemos–AV
List
 Maru Díaz Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 8.11% 5 Y
CHA
List
 José Luis Soro Aragonese nationalism
Eco-socialism		 6.26% 3 Y
Vox
List
 Santiago Morón Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 6.08% 3 N
PAR
List
 Arturo Aliaga Regionalism
Centrism		 5.08% 3 Y [15]
IU
List
 Álvaro Sanz Socialism
Communism		 3.32% 1 N
España
Vaciada
List
 TBD Localism
Ruralism		 New party N [16]

In September 2021, citizen collectives of the so-called "Empty Spain" (Spanish: España Vacía or España Vaciada), a coined term to refer to Spain's rural and largely unpopulated interior provinces,[17] agreed to look forward for formulas to contest the next elections in Spain, inspired by the success of the Teruel Existe candidacy (Spanish for "Teruel Exists") in the November 2019 Spanish general election.[18] By December 2021, the platform was seeking to field candidacies in all three Aragonese provinces ahead of the next regional election.[19]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 1] 4–18 Apr 2022 3,600 69.8 30.6
23		 32.4
24		 5.1
3		 6.3
3		 6.6
3		 7.0
5		 4.4
2		 3.7
1		 – – 2.2
3		 1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2] 30 Dec 2021 ? ? 33.5
23		 26.5
18		 3.3
1		 [lower-alpha 1] 7.0
4		 10.3
7		 4.3
3		 [lower-alpha 1] 8.7
4		 – 4.3
7		 7.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3] 30 Jun–13 Aug 2021 251 ? 30.9
22		 29.5
22		 3.4
1		 [lower-alpha 1] 7.3
4		 10.1
7		 4.7
2		 [lower-alpha 1] 8.3
5		 – 3.0
4		 1.4
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 4][p 5] 12–19 Apr 2021 3,600 69.3 32.7
25		 31.2
23		 4.9
3		 5.9
3		 7.2
5		 7.5
5		 4.4
2		 3.8
1		 – – – 1.5
SyM Consulting[p 6][p 7] 1–3 Mar 2021 1,938 65.7 33.5
26		 23.2
16/17		 5.3
2/4		 6.9
4		 6.6
4		 12.8
8/9		 5.4
3/5		 2.5
1		 – – – 10.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8] 12 Jul–13 Aug 2020 ? ? 30.7
24		 25.5
20		 8.1
4		 8.1
4		 5.1
2		 8.9
5		 3.6
2		 2.9
1		 – – 3.1
5		 5.2
? 31.9
25		 26.0
21		 8.3
5		 8.3
5		 5.4
2		 9.0
5		 4.3
3		 2.9
1		 – – – 5.9
SyM Consulting[p 9][p 10] 28–30 May 2020 1,952 68.2 28.8
22/24		 25.4
19/20		 7.2
4		 8.2
4		 5.7
3/4		 14.4
9/11		 4.8
3		 2.0
0		 – – – 3.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11][p 12] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 33.2
26		 26.5
21		 8.7
5		 8.4
5		 5.4
2		 7.8
5		 4.2
2		 2.9
1		 – – – 6.7
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 N/A 69.3 30.7
(23)		 23.9
(18)		 8.6
(4)		 [lower-alpha 1] 0.3
(0)		 17.0
(11)		 – [lower-alpha 1] 10.8
(6)		 3.3
(1)		 2.8
(4)		 6.8
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 N/A 66.2 30.8
24		 20.9
16		 16.7
12		 8.1
5		 6.3
3		 6.1
3		 5.1
3		 3.3
1		 – – – 9.9

Notes
  1. Within Unidas Podemos.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "El PP ganaría las elecciones, pero el Gobierno dependerá de pactos con múltiples partidos". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2022.
  2. "EP Aragón (30D): Aragón Existe lograría 7 diputados, alcanzando en escaños a Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 December 2021.
  3. "EP Aragón (15Ag): empate PP-PSOE con UP y TEx marcando el próximo Gobierno". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 August 2021.
  4. "El PSOE podría reeditar su cuatripartito en Aragón a pesar de que la debacle de Ciudadanos impulsa al PP". Heraldo de Aragón (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  5. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta A+M 23/04/2021: IU 3,8% (1), PODEMOS-EQUO 5,9% (3), CHA 7,2% (5), PSOE 32,7% (25), PAR 4,4% (2), Cs 4,9% (3), PP 31,2% (23), VOX 7,5% (5)". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2021.
  6. "Estimación Marzo 2021. Aragón. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 10 March 2021.
  7. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta SyM Consulting 10/03/2021: IU 2,5% (1), PODEMOS-EQUO 6,9% (4), CHA 6,6% (4), PSOE 33,5% (26), PAR 5,4% (3/5), Cs 5,3% (2/4), PP 23,2% (16/17), VOX 12,8% (8/9)". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 March 2021.
  8. "EP Autonómico (15Ag): Teruel Existe sería clave en Aragón, con los dos bloques muy igualados. Múltiple empate en Andalucía". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 August 2020.
  9. "Estimación Mayo 2020. Aragón. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 June 2020.
  10. "ARAGÓN. Encuesta SyM Consulting 03/06/2020: IU 2,0%, PODEMOS-EQUO 8,2% (4), CHA 5,7% (3/4), PSOE 28,8% (22/24), PAR 4,8% (3), Cs 7,2% (4), PP 25,4% (19/20), VOX 14,4% (9/11)". Electograph (in Spanish). 3 June 2020.
  11. "EP (17My): Aragón – Lambán sube, y el PP también". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  12. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 5/2007, de 20 de abril, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Aragón". Organic Law No. 5 of 20 April 2007. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. "Ley 2/1987, de 16 de febrero, Electoral de la Comunidad Autónoma de Aragón". Law No. 2 of 12 February 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  4. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2017-07-30. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  5. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2020.
  6. Dávila, Carlos (5 November 2021). "Persistente runrún electoral". El Día de Valladolid (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  7. Hernández, Marisol; Robero, Juanma (14 October 2021). "Puig y Moreno Bonilla se miran de reojo para adelantar las elecciones". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  8. Alonso Giménez, Ángel (6 November 2021). "El botón rojo electoral de Lambán: tres motivos para adelantar elecciones y otros tres en contra". El Periódico de España (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  9. "El presidente de Aragón descarta adelantar las elecciones en la comunidad autónoma" (in Spanish). Zaragoza: Europa Press. 11 November 2021. Retrieved 12 November 2021.
  10. "Grupos parlamentarios". Cortes of Aragon (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 October 2020.
  11. "Lambán presentará su candidatura a la reelección como secretario general del PSOE Aragón la semana próxima" (in Spanish). Zaragoza: Europa Press. 27 August 2021. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
  12. "Javier Lambán se presentará a la reelección en 2023". El Periódico (in Spanish). Zaragoza. 19 April 2022. Retrieved 23 April 2022.
  13. "Luis María Beamonte no repetirá como presidente del PP de Aragón en el congreso regional de diciembre" (in Spanish). Madrid: Europa Press. 29 October 2021. Retrieved 7 November 2021.
  14. Carnicero, Laura (19 December 2021). "Jorge Azcón coge el mando del PP de Aragón y abre una nueva etapa". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). Zaragoza. Retrieved 19 December 2021.
  15. Gomar, Carlota (23 October 2021). "Arturo Aliaga se mantiene al frente del PAR tras un congreso muy bronco". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). Zaragoza. Retrieved 9 November 2021.
  16. "Teruel Existe se presentará a las elecciones municipales y autonómicas". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). 1 June 2021. Retrieved 1 June 2021.
  17. Rodríguez Martínez, Marta; Abellán Matamoros, Cristina; Amiel, Sandrine (1 April 2019). "The 'Revolt of Empty Spain': Why is Spain's rural world protesting?". Euronews. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  18. Navarro, Juan (20 September 2021). "La España Vacía concurrirá a las elecciones". El País (in Spanish). Valladolid. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  19. Carnicero, Laura (12 December 2021). "La España Vaciada arma su proyecto para presentarse en las tres provincias de Aragón". El Periódico de Aragón (in Spanish). Zaragoza. Retrieved 1 January 2022.
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