Demographics of Nigeria

Total population by state

Demographics of Nigeria, data of FAO, year 2005; number of permanent inhabitants in thousands.

Nigeria's population has been increasing rapidly for at least the last 5 decades due to very high birth rates, quadrupling its population during this time. Growth was fastest in the 1980s, after child mortality dropped rapidly, and has slowed slightly since then as the birth rate has declined slightly. According to the 2017 revision of the World Population Prospects the total population was 185,989,640 in 2016, compared to only 37,860,000 in 1950. The proportion of children under the age of 15 in 2010 was 44.0%, 53.2% were between 15 and 65 years of age, while 2.7% were 65 years or older. There is a large population momentum, with 3.2 percent growth leading to the projected population.[14][2][15]

Abuja has not elected to implement the type of controversial family planning programs undermining the demographic potential of other developing nations, a result due to lackluster political support and a cultural preference for large families. Rising educational levels and health care improvements may enable future parents to opt for smaller families.[11]

The former Nigeria's Chairman of National Population Commission, Eze Duruiheoma, delivering Nigeria's statement in New York on Sustainable Cities, Human Mobility and International Migration in the 51st Session of Commission on Population and Development, said that "Nigeria remains the most populous in Africa, the seventh globally with an estimated population of over 198 million. The World Population Prospects predicts that by 2050, Nigeria will become the third most populated country in the world. Over the last 50 years, Nigeria's urban population has grown at an average annual growth rate of more than 6.5% without commensurate increases in social amenities and infrastructure." He also stated that the population "grew substantially from 17.3% in 1967 to 49.4% in 2017."[16]

Population by Sex and Age Group (Census 2006) [17]

Population by Age Group (Estimates 1.VII.2016) [18]

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (Wanted TFR) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR):[19][20] [21] [22][23]

Fertility data as of 2013 (DHS Program):[25]

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)[26]

The total population in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to increase to almost one billion people, making it the most populated region outside of South-Central Asia.[28] According to the United Nations, the population of Nigeria will reach 411 million by 2050. Nigeria might then be the 3rd most populous country in the world. In 2100, the population of Nigeria may reach 794 million.[29] While the overall population is expected to increase, the growth rate is estimated to decrease from 1.2 percent per year in 2010 to 0.4 percent per year in 2050.[28] The birth rate is also projected to decrease from 20.7 to 13.7, while the death rate is projected to increase from 8.5 in 2010 to 9.8 in 2050.[28] Life expectancy is expected to increase from 67.0 years in 2010 to 75.2 years in 2050. By 2050, 69.6% of the population is estimated to be living in urban areas compared to 50.6% in 2010.[28]

Registration of vital events in Nigeria is not complete. The Population Department of the United Nations prepared the following estimates.[30]

Life expectancy at birth

Life expectancy development in Nigeria

Life expectancy from 1950 to 2015 (UN World Population Prospects):[31]

Period	Life expectancy in Years
1950–1955	33.81
1955–1960	35.80
1960–1965	38.13
1965–1970	39.97
1970–1975	42.03
1975–1980	44.29
1980–1985	46.02
1985–1990	45.95
1990–1995	45.87
1995–2000	46.00
2000–2005	46.94
2005–2010	49.75
2010–2015	51.88

The following demographic statistics of Nigeria in 2019 are from the World Population Review.[32]

• One birth every 4 seconds
• One death every 14 seconds
• One net migrant every 9 minutes
• Net gain of one person every 6 seconds

The following demographic statistics are from the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated.[11]

Age structure

Population pyramid of Nigeria in 2017

Today millions of ethnic Nigerians live abroad, the largest communities can be found in the United Kingdom (500,000–3,000,000)[36] and the United States (600,000–1,000,000 Nigerians), other countries that followed closely are South Africa, Gambia, and Canada respectively. There are between 90,000 and 100,000 Nigerians in Brazil, many of them living illegally without proper documentation. Additionally, there were around 100,000 Nigerians living in China in 2012, mostly in the city of Guangzhou, but have since declined to about 10,000 due to strict immigration enforcement by Chinese officials as many of them were known for engaging in illegal activities. There are also large groups in Ireland, Portugal and many other countries.[37] Inspiration for emigration is based heavily on socio-economical issues such as warfare, insecurity, economical instability and civil unrest.

Between 1400–1900, of 1.4 million of 2 million emigrants were slaves sent to the Americas. This is due to the fact that the land now known as Nigeria was a central point for 4 slave trades during the 19th century. Though bondage represented a great deal, an estimated 30,000 Nigerian inhabitants would relocate to Kano City and Gambia to take advantage of financial opportunities afforded by fertile land and available natural resources. What's more, the presence of gold mines and rail lines along the Gold Coast, present-day Ghana, attracted an estimated 6,500 Nigerian citizens to attain financial gain and opportunity. The population of Nigerians in Ghana rose to roughly 149,000 before the 1969 alien expulsion order would displace nearly the entire population to surrounding countries.[38]

Nigeria is nearly equally divided between Islam and Christianity. The majority of Nigerian Muslims are Sunni and are concentrated in the northern, central and south-western zones of the country, while Christians dominate in some central states (especially Plateau and Benue states), and the south-east and south-south regions. Other religions practiced in Nigeria include African Traditional Religion, Hinduism, Baháʼí Faith, Judaism, The Grail Movement, and the Reformed Ògbóni Fraternity, one of the traditional socio-religious institutions of the Yorùbá people and their Òrìṣà religion known as Ẹ̀sìn Òrìṣà Ìbílẹ̀ in the Yorùbá language.[39]

According to a 2009 Pew survey, 50.4% of Nigeria's population were Muslims.[40] A later Pew study in 2011 calculated that Christians now formed 50.8% of the population.[41][42] Adherents of other religions 1% make up of the population.[43]

The shift of population balance between Muslims and Christians is a result of northern and southern Nigeria being in different stages of demographic transition. The Muslim-dominated north is in an earlier stage of the demographic transition with much higher fertility rates than the south, whose split Christian/Muslim population is further along in the transition, and whose fertility rates are declining. Decreasing fertility can be linked to more access to education, use of contraceptives, and differing beliefs regarding family planning.[14]

The 1999 introduction of Sharia Law in twelve northern Nigerian states led to massive violence and unrest and caused an ethnic and religious rift between Sharia and Non-Sharia states, a divide that has deepened with time.[14]

Nigeria is home to a substantial network of organized crime, active especially in drug trafficking. Nigerian criminal groups are heavily involved in drug trafficking, shipping heroin from Asian countries to Europe and America; and cocaine from South America to Europe and South Africa.[44] The various Nigerian Confraternities or "campus cults" are active in both organized crime and in political violence as well as providing a network of corruption within Nigeria. As confraternities have extensive connections with political and military figures, they offer excellent alumni networking opportunities. The Supreme Vikings Confraternity, for example, boasts that twelve members of the Rivers State House of Assembly are cult members.[45] On lower levels of society, there are the "area boys", these are organized gangs mostly active in Lagos who specialize in mugging and small-scale drug dealing. According to official statistics, gang violence in Lagos resulted in 273 civilians and 84 policemen killed in the period of August 2000 to May 2001.[46]

"The result of factors such as endemic local corruption, which facilitates illicit trafficking; the Biafra civil war, which contributed to a proliferation of firearms; the oil boom of the 1970s, which led to the embezzlement of public funds; and the economic crisis of the 1980s, which was accompanied by a rise in robberies. The expansion of the Nigerian diaspora and organized crime went hand in hand. Global migration boosted prostitution, drug trafficking and fraud, the three main activities of Nigerian syndicates. The smuggling of Nigerian sex workers became a whole industry that now extends from Switzerland to France and Italy (where black prostitutes are called "fireflies"), and has even reached the Prudish Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, from which 1,000 women are said to be deported every month by the authorities."[47]

The high crime rate among Nigerian migrants also leads to stereotyping Nigerians as criminals; thus, in Cameroon, Nigerian migrants are perceived collectively by the inhabitants of Cameroon as likely to be oil smugglers or dealers in stolen cars. In the Netherlands, the debate on Nigerian crime reached an intensity described as a "moral panic" by one scholar.[48][49] In Switzerland, the crime rate of Nigerian young males was reported as 620% that of Swiss males in same age group (2009 data), the second highest crime rate of any nationality, just below that of Angolan nationals (at 630%).[50]

Nigeria is also pervaded by political corruption. It is ranked 136 out of 168 countries in Transparency International's 2015 Corruption Perceptions Index.[51]

• 2022 Census of Nigeria

• Demographic Dividend Investing in Human Capital. (n.d.). Retrieved March 15, 2018, from http://www.demographicdividend.org/country_highlights/nigeria/
• Demographic dynamics and development in Nigeria (Report). ProQuest 1706105013.
• Dyson, Tim (October 2010). Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. Zed Books. ISBN 978-1-84277-960-6.
• Omoju, Oluwasola E; Abraham, Terfa W (24 March 2014). "Youth bulge and demographic dividend in Nigeria". African Population Studies. 27 (2): 352–360. doi:10.11564/27-2-480.
• Reed, H. E., & Mberu, B. U. (2014). Capitalizing on Nigeria's demographic dividend: reaping the benefits and diminishing the burdens. Etude de La.
• Reed, Holly E; Mberu, Blessing U (24 March 2014). "Capitalizing on Nigeria's demographic dividend: reaping the benefits and diminishing the burdens". African Population Studies. 27 (2): 319–330. doi:10.11564/27-2-477. PMC 4335263. PMID 25705077.
• The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency. (n.d.). Retrieved April 10, 2018, from https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/nigeria/