2008 United States presidential election in Virginia

The 2008 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 4, 2008, which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election
2008 United States presidential election in Virginia
November 4, 2008
Turnout74.0% 3.2[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,959,532 1,725,005
Percentage 52.6% 46.3%
County and Independent City Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Virginia was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 6.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 16 of 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise a likely blue state, despite the fact that Virginia was initially a formerly red swing state that both campaigns targeted heavily in 2008. The financial meltdown, changing demographics, and population increases in voter-rich Northern Virginia helped make the state more competitive for Obama. It was the first time Virginia voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson's victory in 1964. However, it marked a powerful shift in the political climate in Virginia, as the state would go on to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election thereafter.

This also marked the first presidential election since 1924 in which Virginia voted for the Democratic presidential candidate whilst neighboring West Virginia voted for the Republican presidential candidate, and in every election since, both states have voted for those respective parties. Additionally, this was the first election since 1920 in which Virginia voted for a different candidate than Oklahoma. As of 2020, this is also the last time Virginia voted more Republican than the nation as a whole.

Primaries

Campaign
Elections in Virginia
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Ballot measures
Statewide
Fairfax County
2016
Alexandria
Mayor
(List)
Hampton
Mayor
Norfolk
Mayor
Richmond
Mayor
City Council
Virginia Beach
Mayor
City Council

Virginia was one of the first Southern states to break away from its traditional Democratic roots. It voted for Dwight Eisenhower by a convincing margin in 1952, and voted for every Republican nominee since then save for Johnson's massive landslide in 1964.

However, the Democrats have made strong gains in the past years with winning two gubernatorial races in a row, regaining control of the Virginia Senate, and electing Democrat Jim Webb to the U.S. Senate in the Democratic wave of the 2006 midterms over incumbent Republican George Allen. Democrats have been able to make such gains in Virginia due in large part to the ever-expanding Northern Virginia, particularly the suburbs surrounding Washington, D.C. Historically, this area had been strongly Republican. However, in recent years it has been dominated by white liberals who tend to vote Democratic.[2] It was, ultimately, this rapid demographic change that provided a huge new influx of Democratic voters to Virginia.[3]

Both presidential campaigns and the mainstream media treated Virginia as a swing state for most of the campaign. Obama campaigned extensively in Virginia and counted on the booming northern parts of the state for a Democratic victory. Victory for McCain would have been extremely difficult without Virginia; he would have had to win every swing state as well as at least one Democratic-leaning state.

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[4] Lean D (flip)
Cook Political Report[5] Lean D (flip)
The Takeaway[6] Lean D (flip)
Electoral-vote.com[7] Lean D (flip)
Washington Post[8] Lean D (flip)
Politico[9] Lean D (flip)
RealClearPolitics[10] Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight[8] Lean D (flip)
CQ Politics[11] Lean D (flip)
The New York Times[12] Lean D (flip)
CNN[13] Lean D (flip)
NPR[8] Lean D (flip)
MSNBC[8] Lean D (flip)
Fox News[14] Likely D (flip)
Associated Press[15] Likely D (flip)
Rasmussen Reports[16] Lean D (flip)

Polling
Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Virginia

After McCain clinched the Republican Party nomination in early March, he took a wide lead in polls against Obama, averaging almost 50%. But through the summer, polling was nearly dead even, with McCain only slightly leading Obama. After the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Obama took a wide lead in the polls. In October, Obama won every single poll taken but one, and reached over 50% in most of them. The final three polls averaged Obama leading 51% to 46%.[17][18]

Fundraising

Obama raised $17,035,784. McCain raised $16,130,194.[19]

Spending and visits

Obama spent over $26 million to McCain spending just $14 million.[20] The Obama-Biden ticket visited the state 19 times compared to just 10 times for McCain-Palin.[21]

Analysis
Voters wait in queue at a polling station on the campus of George Mason University

On Election Day, early returns showed McCain ahead.[22] This was due in large part to the fact that many of the rural areas began to report first. However, Obama swamped McCain by scoring a near-sweep in Northern Virginia, which reported its returns last.

Obama did extremely well throughout the most populous regions of the state. Northern Virginia overwhelmingly supported Obama.[23] In Arlington County and the independent city of Alexandria, the most traditionally Democratic jurisdictions in the region, Obama got over 70% of the vote, improving on Kerry by between 4% and 5% in both. In Fairfax County—the largest county in the state, and a then-traditionally Republican county that Kerry had become the first Democrat in 40 years to carry in 2004—Obama exceeded 60%, improving on Kerry's percentage by just shy of 7%. Just beyond Fairfax, to its south and west, Obama flipped the large counties of Loudoun and Prince William, becoming the first Democrat to carry either since 1964.

The two other major metropolitan areas in the eastern part of the state, Richmond and Hampton Roads, are somewhat less Democratic than Northern Virginia. In both areas, Obama improved significantly on John Kerry's performance.[23] While Obama easily won Richmond itself (which is 57% African American), he also made significant inroads into Richmond's traditionally heavily Republican suburbs. He carried Henrico County with 57% of the vote; that county last supported a Democrat with Harry S. Truman in 1948.[24] In Chesterfield County, Obama did almost 20 points better than Kerry.[25] Both counties had historically been strongly Republican at the national level; Chesterfield had given George W. Bush his largest raw vote margin in Virginia in both 2000 and 2004.

Obama also did very well in Hampton Roads. The four Democratic-leaning cities along the harbor - Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, and Portsmouth - gave him margins exceeding 60%. Obama also split the Republican-leaning cities of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach; he barely won the former and barely lost the latter. Obama's strong performance in the area likely contributed to Democrat Glenn Nye unseating two-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake in the 2nd Congressional District, a heavy military district which includes all of Virginia Beach and large portions of Norfolk and Hampton.

Outside Virginia's three major metropolitan areas, Obama also significantly outperformed Kerry in Albemarle and Montgomery Counties and in a series of independent cities around the state, most significantly Roanoke. Albemarle County surrounds Charlottesville, home to the University of Virginia, and Montgomery County is home to Virginia Tech.

Elsewhere in rural Virginia, however, McCain did well.[25] In the Shenandoah Valley and Southside Virginia, both traditional bases for the Republican Party in Virginia,[26] Obama ran roughly evenly with Kerry; but in southwestern Virginia—at the time one of the more traditionally Democratic regions of the state—McCain outperformed Bush in 2004, even flipping two counties (Buchanan and Dickenson), both of which last voted Republican in 1972; Obama thus became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying the aforementioned two counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1916. However, without the support of suburban voters in the eastern metropolitan areas of the commonwealth, McCain was ultimately unable to hold the Old Dominion.

During the same election, former Democratic Governor Mark Warner solidly defeated former Governor (and his predecessor) Republican Jim Gilmore by a two-to-one margin for the open U.S. Senate seat vacated by incumbent Republican John Warner (no relation to Mark Warner). Warner received 65.03% of the vote while Gilmore took in 33.73%. Warner won all but five counties in the state. Democrats also picked up three seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Despite Obama's victory, Virginia's margin was 0.97% more Republican than the national average, though it would be the last time Virginia voted more Republican than the nation. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which King and Queen County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results
United States presidential election in Virginia, 2008[27]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,959,532 52.63% 13
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,725,005 46.33% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 11,483 0.31% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 11,067 0.30% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 7,474 0.20% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 2,344 0.06% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 6,355 0.17% 0
Totals 3,723,260 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 65.1%

Results breakdown

By city/county
City/County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Accomack County48.69%7,60750.14%7,8331.17%18315,623
Albemarle County58.43%29,79240.36%20,5761.21%61650,984
Alleghany County48.22%3,55350.41%3,7151.37%1017,369
Amelia County38.11%2,48860.81%3,9701.09%716,529
Amherst County41.46%6,09457.62%8,4700.93%13614,700
Appomattox County34.61%2,64164.26%4,9031.13%867,630
Arlington County71.71%78,99427.12%29,8761.16%1,283110,153
Augusta County29.47%9,82569.35%23,1201.18%39333,338
Bath County42.89%1,04355.47%1,3491.64%402,432
Bedford County30.75%11,01768.16%24,4201.10%39335,830
Bland County29.20%86468.64%2,0312.16%642,959
Botetourt County32.71%5,69365.90%11,4711.39%24217,406
Brunswick County62.84%4,97336.35%2,8770.81%647,914
Buchanan County46.52%4,06351.99%4,5411.49%1308,734
Buckingham County49.89%3,48949.01%3,4281.10%776,994
Campbell County31.34%8,09167.58%17,4441.08%27925,814
Caroline County55.45%7,16343.48%5,6171.08%13912,919
Carroll County32.66%4,10865.09%8,1872.25%28312,578
Charles City County68.34%2,83831.01%1,2880.65%274,153
Charlotte County43.93%2,70554.77%3,3721.30%806,157
Chesterfield County45.85%74,31053.31%86,4130.84%1,365162,088
Clarke County46.52%3,45751.68%3,8401.80%1347,431
Craig County33.44%87664.69%1,6951.87%492,620
Culpeper County44.59%8,80254.26%10,7111.15%22819,741
Cumberland County47.73%2,25551.19%2,4181.08%514,724
Dickenson County48.54%3,27849.22%3,3242.24%1516,753
Dinwiddie County48.45%6,24650.62%6,5260.93%12012,892
Essex County54.70%2,93444.35%2,3790.95%515,364
Fairfax County60.12%310,35938.93%200,9940.95%4,901516,254
Fauquier County42.71%14,61656.19%19,2271.10%37634,219
Floyd County39.08%2,93759.09%4,4411.84%1387,516
Fluvanna County48.57%6,18550.41%6,4201.02%13012,735
Franklin County37.86%9,61860.68%15,4141.45%36925,401
Frederick County38.56%12,96159.95%20,1491.49%50233,612
Giles County40.95%3,19257.24%4,4621.81%1417,795
Gloucester County35.98%6,91662.89%12,0891.13%21719,222
Goochland County38.31%4,81360.84%7,6430.84%10612,562
Grayson County34.35%2,48062.88%4,5402.77%2007,220
Greene County38.43%3,17460.29%4,9801.28%1068,260
Greensville County63.88%3,12235.38%1,7290.74%364,887
Halifax County48.23%8,12651.04%8,6000.74%12416,850
Hanover County32.80%18,44766.39%37,3440.81%45756,248
Henrico County55.70%86,32343.48%67,3810.81%1,262154,966
Henry County44.09%11,11854.56%13,7581.34%33925,215
Highland County37.97%59059.85%9302.19%341,554
Isle of Wight County42.87%8,57356.30%11,2580.83%16619,997
James City County44.95%17,35254.17%20,9120.88%33938,603
King and Queen County51.77%1,91847.58%1,7630.65%243,705
King George County42.71%4,47356.22%5,8881.08%11310,474
King William County39.87%3,34459.20%4,9660.93%788,388
Lancaster County46.63%3,23552.57%3,6470.81%566,938
Lee County34.89%3,21963.13%5,8251.98%1839,227
Loudoun County53.67%74,84545.42%63,3360.92%1,278139,459
Louisa County45.45%6,97853.29%8,1821.26%19315,353
Lunenburg County47.84%2,70351.33%2,9000.83%475,650
Madison County42.72%2,86256.10%3,7581.18%796,699
Mathews County35.66%1,94363.42%3,4560.92%505,449
Mecklenburg County47.26%7,12751.83%7,8170.91%13815,082
Middlesex County39.81%2,39159.02%3,5451.17%706,006
Montgomery County51.73%21,03146.81%19,0281.46%59440,653
Nelson County53.99%4,39144.84%3,6471.17%958,133
New Kent County34.96%3,49363.91%6,3851.13%1139,991
Northampton County57.70%3,80041.19%2,7131.11%736,586
Northumberland County44.72%3,31254.56%4,0410.72%537,406
Nottoway County48.84%3,41350.07%3,4991.09%766,988
Orange County44.98%7,10753.83%8,5061.19%18815,801
Page County40.76%4,23558.15%6,0411.09%11310,389
Patrick County33.75%2,87964.37%5,4911.89%1618,531
Pittsylvania County37.51%11,41561.55%18,7300.95%28830,433
Powhatan County29.31%4,23769.78%10,0880.91%13114,456
Prince Edward County54.34%5,10144.46%4,1741.20%1139,388
Prince George County44.55%7,13054.68%8,7520.77%12416,006
Prince William County57.52%93,43541.63%67,6210.86%1,390162,446
Pulaski County39.32%5,91858.85%8,8571.83%27515,050
Rappahannock County47.79%2,10550.56%2,2271.66%734,405
Richmond County43.20%1,61855.86%2,0920.93%353,745
Roanoke County38.87%19,81259.97%30,5711.16%59250,975
Rockbridge County42.64%4,34756.22%5,7321.14%11610,195
Rockingham County31.36%10,45367.40%22,4681.24%41333,334
Russell County42.90%4,93155.59%6,3891.51%17311,493
Scott County27.59%2,72570.68%6,9801.72%1709,875
Shenandoah County35.96%6,91262.45%12,0051.59%30619,223
Smyth County34.46%4,23963.54%7,8172.00%24612,302
Southampton County48.55%4,40250.55%4,5830.90%829,067
Spotsylvania County46.05%24,89752.91%28,6101.04%56254,069
Stafford County46.37%25,71652.69%29,2210.93%51855,455
Surry County60.72%2,62638.45%1,6630.83%364,325
Sussex County61.55%3,30137.78%2,0260.67%365,363
Tazewell County32.80%5,59665.65%11,2011.55%26417,061
Warren County43.39%6,99755.06%8,8791.55%25016,126
Washington County32.91%8,06365.62%16,0771.47%36024,500
Westmoreland County54.64%4,57744.40%3,7190.97%818,377
Wise County35.33%4,99563.05%8,9141.62%22914,138
Wythe County32.88%4,10765.70%8,2071.42%17712,491
York County40.42%13,70058.51%19,8331.07%36433,897
Alexandria71.73%50,47327.26%19,1811.01%71070,364
Bristol36.21%2,66562.22%4,5791.56%1157,359
Buena Vista45.73%1,10852.91%1,2821.36%332,423
Charlottesville78.35%15,70520.35%4,0781.30%26120,044
Chesapeake50.22%53,99448.94%52,6250.84%902107,521
Colonial Heights28.95%2,56269.62%6,1611.42%1268,849
Covington55.40%1,30443.33%1,0201.27%302,354
Danville59.13%12,35240.02%8,3610.85%17720,890
Emporia65.04%1,70234.28%8970.69%182,617
Fairfax57.69%6,57541.16%4,6911.16%13211,398
Falls Church69.56%4,69529.19%1,9701.26%856,750
Franklin63.68%2,81935.60%1,5760.72%324,427
Fredericksburg63.60%6,15535.27%3,4131.13%1099,677
Galax43.80%1,05254.83%1,3171.37%332,402
Hampton69.05%46,91730.14%20,4760.81%55067,943
Harrisonburg57.54%8,44441.21%6,0481.25%18314,675
Hopewell55.49%5,28543.56%4,1490.94%909,524
Lexington62.24%1,54336.87%9140.89%222,479
Lynchburg47.37%16,26951.36%17,6381.26%43434,341
Manassas55.17%7,51843.85%5,9750.98%13413,627
Manassas Park59.49%2,46339.47%1,6341.04%434,140
Martinsville63.48%4,13935.44%2,3111.07%706,520
Newport News63.93%51,97235.26%28,6670.81%65681,295
Norfolk71.03%62,81928.06%24,8140.92%81388,446
Norton49.14%74349.21%7441.65%251,512
Petersburg88.64%13,77410.19%1,5831.18%18315,540
Poquoson24.74%1,74874.01%5,2291.25%887,065
Portsmouth69.27%32,32729.97%13,9840.76%35446,665
Radford53.97%2,93044.54%2,4181.49%815,429
Richmond79.09%73,62320.03%18,6490.87%81393,085
Roanoke61.15%24,93437.76%15,3941.09%44440,772
Salem41.63%5,16457.13%7,0881.24%15412,406
Staunton50.56%5,56948.39%5,3301.05%11611,015
Suffolk56.24%22,44643.01%17,1650.74%29739,908
Virginia Beach49.14%98,88549.85%100,3191.02%2,045201,249
Waynesboro44.09%3,90654.35%4,8151.57%1398,860
Williamsburg63.77%4,32834.67%2,3531.56%1066,787
Winchester52.02%5,26846.66%4,7251.31%13310,126

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried 6 of the state's 11 congressional districts, including four districts held by Republicans at the time of the election. John McCain carried five districts, one of which was held by Democrats on election day.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 51.35% 47.67% Jo Ann Davis (110th Congress)
Robert J. Wittman (111th Congress)
2nd 48.48% 50.45% Thelma Drake (110th Congress)
Glenn Nye (111th Congress)
3rd 23.74% 75.52% Robert C. Scott
4th 48.80% 50.33% Randy Forbes
5th 50.59% 48.29% Virgil Goode (110th Congress)
Tom Perriello (111th Congress)
6th 56.93% 41.85% Bob Goodlatte
7th 53.16% 45.89% Eric Cantor
8th 29.65% 69.28% Jim Moran
9th 58.71% 39.60% Rick Boucher
10th 46.06% 52.90% Frank Wolf
11th 42.06% 57.01% Thomas M. Davis (110th Congress)
Gerry Connolly (111th Congress)

Electors
Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[28] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[29]

  1. Christia Rey
  2. Sandra Brandt
  3. Betty Squire
  4. Susan Johnston Rowland
  5. Marc Finney
  6. Dorothy Blackwell
  7. James Harold Allen Boyd
  8. Marian Van Landingham
  9. Robert Edgar Childress
  10. Rolland Winter
  11. Janet Carver
  12. Michael Jon
  13. Sophie Ann Salley

References
  1. "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on 2018-10-18. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
  2. "Back to the Future - The American Prospect". 12 July 2007. Archived from the original on 2007-07-12.
  3. Continetti, Matthew (October 2, 2006). "George Allen Monkeys Around". The Weekly Standard. Vol. 12, no. 3. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  4. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". 2009-01-01. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  5. "Presidential". 2015-05-05. Archived from the original on 2015-05-05. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  6. "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". 2009-04-22. Archived from the original on 2009-04-22. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  7. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  8. Based on Takeaway
  9. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  10. "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on 2008-06-05.
  11. "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  12. Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  13. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  14. "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  15. "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  16. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  17. "2008 - Virginia: McCain vs. Obama - RealClearPolitics". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  18. "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on 2008-10-23.
  19. "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-18.
  20. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  21. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
  22. "Election 2008: Time lapse of U.S. counties". USA Today. 4 July 2008. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  23. Leip, David. "2008 Presidential General Election Results". David Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  24. Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  25. "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved 2009-05-31.
  26. Trende, Sean (19 February 2009). "Virginia Governor's Preview". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved 2009-05-31. The question in Virginia is always whether the Republican Party can hold together its somewhat unwieldy three-legged coalition of historically Republican Virginians in the mountainous Appalachian western portion of the state, social conservatives in the rural areas east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, and suburbanites in Northern Virginia and in the Richmond/Hampton Roads areas. Why this coalition is having troubles recently could fill a book. For our purposes, we will oversimplify somewhat and observe the following.
  27. http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008election.pdf
  28. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  29. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 4, 2011. Retrieved March 18, 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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