2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Virginia

November 2, 2004
Turnout70.8% 3.6[1]
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742
Percentage 53.7% 45.5%

County and Independent City Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except for 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

As of the 2020 presidential election, the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted Republican. This was also the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president; and the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park, would vote Republican for president. As of 2020, this is the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Florida, which remained a traditional bellwether state as Virginia transitioned from safely red to safely blue; as well as the last time Virginia has voted to the right of Missouri or Ohio, erstwhile Midwestern bellwether states that were either in the process of becoming more safely red or would soon begin doing so.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Fairfax County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Lean Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 45%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386.[4] Kerry raised $6,125,128.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[6][7]

Analysis

For about 80 years after the Civil War, Virginia was, like most other former Confederate states, a reliably Democratic state at the presidential level. After the passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s and the ensuing "Southern strategy," Virginia turned strongly Republican at the presidential level, being the only former Confederate state to vote for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976. Much of the Republican strength in the state was based in the large and growing Richmond- and Washington, D.C.-area suburbs of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Fairfax Counties.

By the 2000s, however, Virginia was becoming one of the more contested former Confederate states for the Republican Party, largely due to the beginnings of a Democratic trend in Northern Virginia.[8] In 2004, John Kerry became the first Democrat since 1964 to carry Fairfax County, long a key Republican stronghold in the state and the largest county in the state. However, Bush managed to keep the margin in Virginia roughly unchanged with respect to 2000 by making further inroads in rural Virginia, particularly in southwest Virginia, a heavily unionized region that had traditionally been one of the Democratic strongholds in the state. Bush became the first Republican to carry Russell County since 1972 and expanded his margin by over 10% in Washington, Scott, Wise, Lee, and Smyth Counties.

Results

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004[9]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (inc.) Dick Cheney 1,716,959 53.73% 13
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,454,742 45.53% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,032 0.35% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 10,161 0.32% 0
Independent (Write-in) Ralph Nader (Write-in) Peter Camejo 2,393 0.07% 0
Green (Write-in) David Cobb (Write-in) Pat LaMarche 104 <0.01% 0
Write-ins - 24 <0.01% 0
Totals 3,195,415 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2%

Results breakdown

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City Kerry %Kerry # Bush %Bush # Other %Other #
Accomack41.3%5,51857.8%7,7260.8%112
Albemarle50.5%22,08848.5%21,1891.0%449
Alleghany44.5%3,20355.1%3,9620.4%30
Amelia34.5%1,86264.8%3,4990.7%36
Amherst38.3%4,86661.1%7,7580.6%71
Appomattox32.9%2,19165.6%4,3661.5%98
Arlington67.6%63,98731.3%29,6351.1%1,028
Augusta23.6%7,01974.4%22,1002.0%585
Bath36.3%82862.8%1,4321.0%22
Bedford29.0%9,10269.8%21,9251.2%377
Bland29.5%84668.5%1,9622.0%57
Botetourt30.4%4,80168.8%10,8650.8%131
Brunswick58.6%4,06241.2%2,8520.2%12
Buchanan53.7%5,27545.9%4,5070.5%47
Buckingham46.3%2,78952.8%3,1850.9%53
Campbell29.8%6,86269.1%15,8911.1%244
Caroline49.0%4,87850.2%4,9990.8%77
Carroll32.1%3,88867.4%8,1730.6%67
Charles City62.7%2,15536.5%1,2540.9%30
Charlotte40.9%2,22358.2%3,1660.9%49
Chesterfield36.9%49,34662.6%83,7450.5%723
Clarke41.5%2,69957.5%3,7411.0%65
Craig34.4%90165.1%1,7060.5%14
Culpeper35.1%5,47664.2%10,0260.7%103
Cumberland41.7%1,72157.6%2,3770.7%28
Dickenson50.8%3,76148.5%3,5910.7%54
Dinwiddie42.2%4,56957.1%6,1930.7%77
Essex46.2%2,00753.0%2,3040.8%33
Fairfax53.2%245,67145.9%211,9800.8%3,728
Fauquier35.8%10,71263.6%19,0110.6%192
Floyd36.9%2,48861.8%4,1621.2%84
Fluvanna40.3%4,41558.9%6,4580.8%84
Franklin36.0%8,00263.2%14,0480.8%173
Frederick31.0%8,85367.9%19,3861.1%301
Giles40.6%3,04757.6%4,3201.7%131
Gloucester31.3%5,10567.9%11,0840.9%144
Goochland34.7%3,58364.5%6,6680.8%87
Grayson34.0%2,43065.2%4,6550.7%52
Greene32.3%2,24065.9%4,5701.9%129
Greensville59.0%2,51440.7%1,7320.3%12
Halifax42.4%6,22057.1%8,3630.5%73
Hanover28.1%13,94171.4%35,4040.5%266
Henrico45.6%60,86453.8%71,8090.6%745
Henry42.0%9,85156.9%13,3581.1%249
Highland34.3%52264.6%9821.1%16
Isle of Wight37.0%5,87162.6%9,9290.4%71
James City38.4%11,93460.9%18,9490.7%207
King and Queen45.8%1,50652.9%1,7371.3%43
King George34.6%2,73964.7%5,1240.7%58
King William35.4%2,43664.0%4,3970.6%39
Lancaster39.8%2,47759.8%3,7240.5%29
Lee41.0%4,00558.0%5,6641.0%101
Loudoun43.6%47,27155.7%60,3820.7%777
Louisa40.2%4,84458.9%7,0830.9%108
Lunenburg45.0%2,36254.5%2,8580.5%25
Madison37.7%2,17661.6%3,5560.7%40
Mathews31.0%1,58968.2%3,4970.8%43
Mecklenburg41.4%5,29357.3%7,3191.3%168
Middlesex35.6%1,91462.0%3,3362.4%127
Montgomery44.8%14,12854.2%17,0701.0%317
Nelson49.6%3,54349.6%3,5390.8%57
New Kent30.7%2,44368.1%5,4141.1%89
Northampton50.5%2,77548.5%2,6691.0%55
Northumberland39.8%2,54859.8%3,8320.5%29
Nottoway43.7%2,63554.8%3,3031.5%92
Orange38.8%5,01559.9%7,7491.3%164
Page34.6%3,32464.8%6,2210.6%58
Patrick31.3%2,57267.0%5,5071.7%136
Pittsylvania33.8%9,27464.5%17,6731.7%470
Powhatan25.6%3,11273.6%8,9550.8%96
Prince Edward49.6%3,63248.8%3,5711.5%113
Prince George38.2%5,06661.3%8,1310.4%57
Prince William46.4%61,27152.8%69,7760.8%1,016
Pulaski37.3%5,31061.5%8,7691.2%172
Rappahannock45.4%1,83753.6%2,1721.0%41
Richmond37.0%1,24361.9%2,0821.1%36
Roanoke34.2%16,08265.1%30,5960.6%295
Rockbridge39.5%3,62758.9%5,4121.5%142
Rockingham24.9%7,27374.4%21,7370.7%206
Russell45.2%5,16753.2%6,0771.6%179
Scott33.4%3,32465.0%6,4791.6%164
Shenandoah30.2%5,18668.9%11,8200.8%140
Smyth33.6%4,14364.2%7,9062.2%270
Southampton45.8%3,43153.6%4,0180.6%43
Spotsylvania36.6%16,62362.8%28,5270.6%295
Stafford37.4%17,20862.0%28,5000.6%278
Surry55.5%1,95443.8%1,5430.7%25
Sussex55.7%2,42043.5%1,8900.8%35
Tazewell41.1%7,18457.4%10,0391.5%257
Warren37.3%5,24161.1%8,6001.6%227
Washington32.6%7,33965.5%14,7491.9%426
Westmoreland49.2%3,37050.1%3,4330.7%45
Wise40.5%5,80258.2%8,3301.3%180
Wythe31.0%3,58168.5%7,9110.5%62
York34.4%10,27664.9%19,3960.7%208
Alexandria66.8%41,11632.3%19,8440.9%555
Bedford41.0%1,04257.9%1,4721.1%28
Bristol35.7%2,40063.6%4,2750.7%49
Buena Vista39.2%93659.3%1,4171.5%36
Charlottesville71.8%11,08827.0%4,1721.2%190
Chesapeake42.3%38,74457.1%52,2830.6%514
Colonial Heights25.0%2,06174.5%6,1290.5%41
Covington51.2%1,17948.0%1,1040.8%18
Danville49.4%9,43649.2%9,3991.4%277
Emporia56.1%1,24743.7%9700.2%4
Fairfax51.2%5,39547.8%5,0451.0%106
Falls Church64.7%3,94434.0%2,0741.3%80
Franklin54.0%1,91045.6%1,6130.4%13
Fredericksburg54.2%4,08544.9%3,3900.9%67
Galax42.3%98757.2%1,3360.5%12
Hampton57.4%32,01642.0%23,3990.6%326
Harrisonburg42.8%4,72655.9%6,1651.3%139
Hopewell45.0%3,57353.6%4,2511.4%112
Lexington57.0%1,34041.8%9821.1%27
Lynchburg44.5%11,72754.7%14,4000.8%213
Manassas43.1%5,56256.2%7,2570.7%84
Manassas Park45.0%1,49854.2%1,8070.8%27
Martinsville54.2%3,03645.3%2,5380.5%29
Newport News52.0%35,31947.4%32,2080.6%425
Norfolk61.7%43,51837.4%26,4010.9%651
Norton48.2%72551.1%7680.7%11
Petersburg81.0%9,68218.7%2,2380.2%29
Poquoson22.0%1,42477.2%5,0040.8%52
Portsmouth61.0%24,11238.5%15,2120.5%210
Radford46.3%2,24452.9%2,5640.8%37
Richmond70.2%52,16729.1%21,6370.7%521
Roanoke52.4%18,86246.3%16,6611.3%477
Salem37.0%4,25462.0%7,1151.0%115
Staunton39.0%3,75660.3%5,8050.7%68
Suffolk47.3%15,23352.1%16,7630.6%193
Virginia Beach40.2%70,66659.1%103,7520.7%1,269
Waynesboro35.1%2,79263.9%5,0921.0%79
Williamsburg51.3%2,21647.8%2,0640.9%40
Winchester42.5%3,96756.5%5,2831.0%93

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 60% 39% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 58% 42% Thelma Drake
3rd 33% 66% Robert C. Scott
4th 57% 43% Randy Forbes
5th 56% 43% Virgil Goode
6th 63% 36% Bob Goodlatte
7th 61% 38% Eric Cantor
8th 35% 64% Jim Moran
9th 60% 39% Rick Boucher
10th 55% 44% Frank Wolf
11th 50% 49% Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

  1. "Registration/Turnout Statistics". Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on 2018-10-18. Retrieved 2018-09-18.
  2. "Archived copy". www.dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 29 July 2012. Retrieved 26 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=51
  4. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  5. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
  6. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. Sabato, Larry J. "Kerry Can Win Virginia…But Will He? – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved 2021-11-08.
  9. http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004election.pdf
  10. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved 26 July 2017.
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