2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose eight representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky

November 4, 2008
Turnout64.04%[1]
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,048,462 751,985
Percentage 57.40% 41.17%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.23% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. In the primaries, Hillary Clinton slightly defeated McCain in hypothetical polls for the Bluegrass State. Once Barack Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Kentucky was reclassified as safe for the GOP. In the end, Kentucky voted for McCain with 57.40% of the vote. Obama did, however, improve on John Kerry's performance by two points. This was the first time since 1960 where Kentucky did not vote for the winning candidate in a presidential election. This was the first time ever in which Kentucky voted more Republican than neighboring Indiana. This was also the first time ever that Floyd and Knott Counties voted for the Republican candidate, as well as the first time since 1908 that Breathitt County voted for the Republican candidate.

As of 2020, this is the last time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote as a presidential candidate in Kentucky.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2] Likely R
Cook Political Report[3] Solid R
The Takeaway[4] Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[5] Solid R
Washington Post[6] Solid R
Politico[7] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[8] Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[6] Solid R
CQ Politics[9] Solid R
The New York Times[10] Solid R
CNN[11] Safe R
NPR[6] Solid R
MSNBC[6] Solid R
Fox News[12] Likely R
Associated Press[13] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[14] Safe R

Polling

McCain won every pre-election poll, almost all of them by a double-digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $183,738 while a conservative interest groups spent just $212.[17] Each ticket visited the state once.[18]

Analysis

Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Anglo Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from the South, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago. (Similar socio-cultural dynamics existed in other Southern and Appalachian states with a large ancestral Democratic base, such as Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas.)

In the 2008 primary, exits polls conducted found that 30 percent of Clinton supporters opted not to vote for Obama in the general election, 40% would vote McCain and the rest would support Obama in the general election. Several counties in the southeastern part of the state swung Republican and went to McCain as solidly Democratic Floyd and Knott counties voted Republican for the first time ever, and Breathitt County voted Republican for the first time since 1908. Obama decided to not spend campaign funds on Kentucky and instead went to more viable battleground states like North Carolina and Indiana instead. McCain won Kentucky by a margin of 16.22 points on election day and performed slightly worse than George Bush in 2004. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in big cities and urban areas while McCain improved upon Bush in rural areas. Kentucky was the first state called for McCain an hour before Vermont was called for Obama.

At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also served as Senate Minority Leader at the time, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Rowan County, Hancock County, Menifee County, Wolfe County, and Henderson County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,048,462 57.40% 8
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 751,985 41.17% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 15,378 0.84% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 5,989 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,694 0.26% 0
Totals 1,826,508 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%

Results breakdown

By county

County Barack H. Obama John S. McCain Other Margin Total
#  % #  % #  % # %
Adair1,88825.11%5,51273.32%1181.57%3,624 48.20% 7,518
Allen2,02327.38%5,25871.16%1081.46%3,235 43.78% 7,389
Anderson3,46132.81%6,88465.25%2051.94%3,423 32.45% 10,550
Ballard1,42735.15%2,53762.49%962.36%1,110 27.34% 4,060
Barren5,43432.33%11,13366.24%2401.43%5,699 33.91% 16,807
Bath2,21048.65%2,23449.17%992.18%24 0.53% 4,543
Bell2,78228.99%6,68169.61%1351.41%3,899 40.62% 9,598
Boone16,29232.09%33,81266.59%6701.32%17,520 34.51% 50,774
Bourbon3,38540.64%4,82057.86%1251.50%1,435 17.23% 8,330
Boyd8,88642.99%11,42955.30%3541.71%2,543 12.30% 20,669
Boyle4,76437.73%7,69760.96%1651.31%2,933 23.23% 12,626
Bracken1,24136.51%2,06660.78%922.71%825 24.27% 3,399
Breathitt2,20543.84%2,67153.10%1543.06%466 9.26% 5,030
Breckinridge3,11036.49%5,28161.97%1311.54%2,171 25.48% 8,522
Bullitt10,17733.12%20,10265.42%4471.45%9,925 32.30% 30,726
Butler1,55529.30%3,69669.64%561.06%2,141 40.34% 5,307
Caldwell2,21235.68%3,86662.36%1211.95%1,654 26.68% 6,199
Calloway6,16540.02%8,99158.37%2481.61%2,826 18.35% 15,404
Campbell15,61938.77%24,04559.68%6261.55%8,426 20.91% 40,290
Carlisle87933.59%1,69964.92%391.49%820 31.33% 2,617
Carroll1,71644.75%2,03252.99%872.27%316 8.24% 3,835
Carter4,31443.97%5,25253.53%2452.50%938 9.56% 9,811
Casey1,21920.46%4,67978.55%590.99%3,460 58.08% 5,957
Christian8,82239.15%13,51559.97%1990.88%4,693 20.82% 22,536
Clark5,74936.79%9,66461.84%2151.38%3,915 25.05% 15,628
Clay1,55221.08%5,71077.54%1021.39%4,158 56.46% 7,364
Clinton76118.24%3,36680.68%451.08%2,605 62.44% 4,172
Crittenden1,25431.91%2,60466.26%721.83%1,350 34.35% 3,930
Cumberland69724.92%2,05673.51%441.57%1,359 48.59% 2,797
Daviess19,28244.20%23,69254.31%6481.49%4,410 10.11% 43,622
Edmonson1,65231.35%3,56267.59%561.06%1,910 36.24% 5,270
Elliott1,53561.03%90235.86%783.10%-633 -25.17% 2,515
Estill1,55529.26%3,68569.35%741.39%2,130 40.08% 5,314
Fayette66,04051.74%59,88446.92%1,7131.34%-6,156 -4.82% 127,637
Fleming2,27939.08%3,43258.85%1212.07%1,153 19.77% 5,832
Floyd7,53048.09%7,74149.43%3882.48%211 1.35% 15,659
Franklin11,76748.87%11,91149.47%4011.67%144 0.60% 24,079
Fulton1,22643.58%1,53054.39%572.03%304 10.81% 2,813
Gallatin1,27840.03%1,84057.63%752.35%562 17.60% 3,193
Garrard2,01227.91%5,11770.98%801.11%3,105 43.07% 7,209
Grant3,10935.15%5,60563.37%1311.48%2,496 28.22% 8,845
Graves5,84336.17%10,05662.25%2561.58%4,213 26.08% 16,155
Grayson3,15431.85%6,60566.70%1441.45%3,451 34.85% 9,903
Green1,20423.71%3,78574.52%901.77%2,581 50.82% 5,079
Greenup6,62141.91%8,84956.01%3282.08%2,228 14.10% 15,798
Hancock2,12851.49%1,92446.55%811.96%-204 -4.94% 4,133
Hardin15,65039.13%23,89659.75%4441.11%8,246 20.62% 39,990
Harlan2,58626.08%7,16572.27%1631.64%4,579 46.19% 9,914
Harrison2,91638.42%4,52059.55%1542.03%1,604 21.13% 7,590
Hart2,29033.59%4,39764.49%1311.92%2,107 30.90% 6,818
Henderson10,04950.60%9,52347.95%2891.46%-526 -2.65% 19,861
Henry2,72439.38%4,08158.99%1131.63%1,357 19.62% 6,918
Hickman81236.09%1,40662.49%321.42%594 26.40% 2,250
Hopkins7,10436.72%11,91661.59%3281.70%4,812 24.87% 19,348
Jackson74314.22%4,40784.36%741.42%3,664 70.14% 5,224
Jefferson196,27255.50%153,86543.51%3,5000.99%-42,407 -11.99% 353,637
Jessamine6,23630.85%13,71067.83%2671.32%7,474 36.98% 20,213
Johnson2,41328.26%5,96469.84%1621.90%3,551 41.59% 8,539
Kenton26,48038.82%40,71459.69%1,0191.49%14,234 20.87% 68,213
Knott2,52344.97%2,95052.58%1382.46%427 7.61% 5,611
Knox3,07426.99%8,15071.56%1651.45%5,076 44.57% 11,389
LaRue1,91330.96%4,15367.22%1121.81%2,240 36.26% 6,178
Laurel4,59320.52%17,56378.48%2220.99%12,970 57.96% 22,378
Lawrence2,03636.04%3,50362.01%1101.95%1,467 25.97% 5,649
Lee75227.12%1,97871.33%431.55%1,226 44.21% 2,773
Leslie76617.42%3,57481.28%571.30%2,808 63.86% 4,397
Letcher2,62331.85%5,36765.17%2452.98%2,744 33.32% 8,235
Lewis1,51031.52%3,21367.06%681.42%1,703 35.55% 4,791
Lincoln2,75230.07%6,27368.55%1261.38%3,521 38.48% 9,151
Livingston1,62235.31%2,89062.92%811.76%1,268 27.61% 4,593
Logan3,81135.00%6,92563.59%1541.41%3,114 28.60% 10,890
Lyon1,57740.91%2,22057.59%581.50%643 16.68% 3,855
McCracken11,28538.12%19,04360.57%4261.31%7,758 25.23% 32,512
McCreary2,10545.66%2,43452.80%711.54%329 7.14% 4,610
McLean1,96344.39%2,38653.96%731.65%423 9.57% 4,422
Madison12,39236.07%19,69461.02%4512.91%7,302 22.44% 15,507
Magoffin80821.58%2,82475.43%1122.99%2,016 53.85% 3,744
Marion2,89140.32%4,10257.21%1772.47%1,211 16.89% 7,170
Marshall5,59336.85%9,46362.19%2920.95%3,870 25.22% 30,620
Martin1,25823.31%4,07875.57%601.11%2,820 52.26% 5,396
Mason2,89140.60%4,10257.60%1281.8%1,310 18.14% 7,121
Meade4,34338.76%6,69159.71%1721.53%2,348 20.95% 11,206
Menifee1,27651.27%1,15546.40%582.33%-121 -4.86% 2,489
Mercer3,15931.40%6,78167.41%1201.19%3,622 36.00% 10,060
Metcalfe1,35032.15%2,73465.11%1152.74%1,384 32.96% 4,199
Monroe1,06722.87%3,53775.82%611.31%2,470 52.95% 4,665
Montgomery4,23440.98%5,94757.56%1501.45%1,713 16.58% 10,331
Morgan1,85842.82%2,37754.78%1042.40%519 11.96% 4,339
Muhlenberg6,22148.27%6,44750.02%2211.71%226 1.75% 12,889
Nelson7,65442.18%10,13955.87%3531.95%2,485 13.69% 18,146
Nicholas1,27242.83%1,63455.02%642.15%362 12.19% 2,970
Ohio4,05940.46%5,78157.63%1921.91%1,722 17.17% 10,032
Oldham9,99634.11%18,99264.80%3191.09%8,996 30.70% 29,307
Owen1,69435.66%2,96962.49%881.85%1,275 26.84% 4,751
Owsley38122.60%1,27975.86%261.54%898 53.26% 1,686
Pendleton2,02734.94%3,67663.36%991.71%1,649 28.42% 5,802
Perry3,44433.20%6,76265.18%1691.63%3,318 31.98% 10,375
Pike9,52542.05%12,66555.91%4632.04%3,140 13.86% 22,653
Powell2,06541.28%2,86757.32%701.40%802 16.03% 5,002
Pulaski5,59021.70%19,86277.09%3141.22%14,272 55.39% 25,766
Robertson45144.43%53352.51%313.05%82 8.08% 1,015
Rockcastle1,41022.47%4,75775.82%1071.71%3,347 53.35% 6,274
Rowan4,07449.96%3,90747.92%1732.12%-167 -2.05% 8,154
Russell1,57921.31%5,70276.97%1271.71%4,123 55.66% 7,408
Scott7,71239.09%11,78259.72%2361.20%4,070 20.63% 19,730
Shelby6,87137.06%11,45161.76%2181.18%4,580 24.70% 18,540
Simpson2,77537.97%4,43760.71%971.33%1,662 22.74% 7,309
Spencer2,51931.30%5,37866.82%1521.89%2,859 35.52% 8,049
Taylor3,16529.14%7,56869.69%1271.17%4,403 40.54% 10,860
Todd1,54331.23%3,33667.52%621.25%1,793 36.29% 4,941
Trigg2,24634.41%4,18964.18%921.41%1,943 29.77% 6,527
Trimble1,48438.93%2,23958.74%892.33%755 19.81% 3,812
Union2,80446.47%3,12051.71%1101.82%316 5.24% 6,034
Warren17,65040.03%25,95758.87%4831.10%8,307 18.84% 44,090
Washington1,89035.83%3,30562.65%801.52%1,415 26.82% 5,275
Wayne2,20130.59%4,86867.65%1271.76%2,667 37.06% 7,196
Webster2,39043.14%3,03754.82%1132.04%647 11.68% 5,540
Whitley3,48425.43%10,01473.08%2051.50%6,530 47.65% 13,703
Wolfe1,49350.30%1,40847.44%672.26%-85 -2.86% 2,968
Woodford5,02740.88%7,13057.98%1401.14%2,103 17.10% 12,297
Total 751,010 41.14% 1,048,274 57.43% 26,057 1.43% 297,264 16.29% 1,825,341

By congressional district

John McCain carried 5 of the state's 6 congressional districts, including one of the two districts held by a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.85% 36.60% Ed Whitfield
2nd 60.54% 38.03% Ron Lewis (110th Congress)
Brett Guthrie (111th Congress)
3rd 43.36% 55.66% John Yarmuth
4th 60.41% 37.96% Geoff Davis
5th 67.01% 31.24% Hal Rogers
6th 55.41% 43.22% Ben Chandler

Electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[20]

  1. James Henry Snider
  2. Walter A. Baker
  3. Edna M. Fulkerson
  4. Amy B. Towles
  5. Nancy Mitchell
  6. Don Ball
  7. Robert Gable
  8. Elizabeth G. Thomas

References

  1. https://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Statistics/turnout/2006-2010/08gen.pdf
  2. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". 2009-01-01. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  3. "Presidential". 2015-05-05. Archived from the original on 2015-05-05. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  4. "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". 2009-04-22. Archived from the original on 2009-04-22. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  5. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  6. Based on Takeaway
  7. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  8. "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on 2008-06-05.
  9. "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  10. Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. "October 2008 CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  14. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  15. Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-20.
  17. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  20. Kentucky's electors » Archive » Evening News and Tribune
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