2022 United States Senate election in Missouri

The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. Senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. On March 8, 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection to a third term in office.[1][2]

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri

November 8, 2022
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Roy Blunt
Republican



Republican primary

Declared

Republican candidates[lower-alpha 1]

Missed filing deadline

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Eric Greitens
Federal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Vicky Hartzler
Federal officials
Individuals
Organizations
Eric Schmitt
Federal officials
Individuals
Organizations

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Eric
Greitens
Vicky
Hartzler
Billy
Long
Mark
McCloskey
Dave
Schatz
Eric
Schmitt
Other
[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
Real Clear Politcs March 22–29, 2022 March 31, 2022 22.5% 22.0% 8.5% 3.5% 3.0% 23.0% 18.0% Schmitt +0.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Greitens
Vicky
Hartzler
Billy
Long
Mark
McCloskey
Dave
Schatz
Eric
Schmitt
Other Undecided
NMB Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 6–7, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 23% 20% 7% 3% 2% 25% 20%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 2] April 4–6, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 22% 23% 11% 5% 2% 16% 21%
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 24–29, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 25% 8% 2% 3% 22% 16%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] March 22–23, 2022 941 (LV) ± 3.1% 21% 19% 9% 5% 3% 24% 19%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 22–24, 2022 1,026 (LV) ± 3.0% 31% 17% 6% 5% 2% 23% 3% 15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] February 16–17, 2022 917 (LV) ± 3.1% 25% 18% 8% 5% 2% 22% 20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] January 26–27, 2022 902 (LV) ± 3.1% 28% 19% 7% 5% 1% 23% 17%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 2] January 2022 – (LV) 30% 16% 9% 6% 1% 16% 23%
CMA Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 4] January 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 27% 12% 6% 4% 1% 15% 36%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] December 1–2, 2021 744 (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 16% 7% 4% 3% 24% 19%
NMB Research (R)[upper-alpha 1] December 2021 – (LV) 34% 17% 49%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] October 20–21, 2021 806 (LV) ± 3.2% 27% 19% 8% 4% 25% 17%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 5] October 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 36% 10% 6% 4% 17% 1%[lower-alpha 4] 25%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] September 8–9, 2021 847 (LV) ± 3.2% 27% 17% 8% 5% 28% 15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] June 9–10, 2021 1,011 (LV) ± 3.0% 34% 14% 7% 25% 20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] March 24–25, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 14% 30% 20%
40% 39% 21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Roy
Blunt
John
Brunner
Eric
Greitens
Vicky
Hartzler
Billy
Long
Eric
Schmitt
Jason
Smith
Ann
Wagner
Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] March 24–25, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 31% 8% 6% 18% 9% 12% 14%
10% 38% 30% 22%
36% 29% 16% 19%
38% 26% 18% 18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 5] March 23–25, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 11% 7% 9% 26%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] December 2–3, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 32% 25%

Results

Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Robert Allen
Republican Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr.
Republican Dennis Lee Chilton
Republican Eric Greitens
Republican C.W. Gardner
Republican Vicky Hartzler
Republican Rickey Joiner
Republican Patrick A. Lewis
Republican Billy Long
Republican Darrell Leon McClanahan III
Republican Mark McCloskey
Republican Eric McElroy
Republican Bernie Mowinsk
Republican Robert Olson
Republican Deshon Porter
Republican Dave Schatz
Republican Kevin C. Schepers
Republican Eric S. Schmitt
Republican Dave Sims
Republican Hartford Tunnell
Republican Curtis D. Vaughn
Total votes

Democratic primary

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Lucas Kunce
Local Officials
Organizations
Trudy Busch Valentine
Former candidates
  • Scott Sifton, state senator (2013–2021) and state representative (2011–2013)[58]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Lucas
Kunce
Trudy Busch
Valentine
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] April 13–14, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 25% 18% 56%

Results

Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ronald (Ron) William Harris
Democratic Jewel Kelly
Democratic Pat Kelly
Democratic Lucas Kunce
Democratic Lewis Rolen
Democratic Gena Ross
Democratic Josh Shipp
Democratic Clarence (Clay) Taylor
Democratic Spencer Toder
Democratic Carla Coffee Wright
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine
Total votes

Libertarian primary

Declared

  • Jonathan Dine, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016[4]

Results

Libertarian primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine
Total votes

Constitution primary

Declared

Results

Constitution primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Paul Venable
Total votes

Independents

Declared

  • Rick Seabaugh, sales manager[74]
  • Nicholas Strauss, network engineer[9]

Withdrew

  • Thomas Schneider, mayor of Florissant (2011–2019) (endorsed Schatz and Valentine)[75][76]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[77] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[78] Solid R April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[79] Likely R March 1, 2022
Politico[80] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[81] Lean R March 6, 2022

Polling

Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Greitens (R)
Lucas
Kunce (D)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% 9%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 34% 26% 40%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 5] October 3–4, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 40% 13%
Vicky Hartzler vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Vicky
Hartzler (R)
Lucas
Kunce (D)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 56% 39% 5%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 23% 16% 61%
Billy Long vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Billy
Long (R)
Lucas
Kunce (D)
Undecided
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 16% 17% 67%
Eric Schmitt vs. Lucas Kunce
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Schmitt (R)
Lucas
Kunce (D)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 40% 5%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 28% 23% 49%
Hypothetical polling
Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce vs. generic Independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Greitens (R)
Lucas
Kunce (D)
Generic
Independent
Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM)[upper-alpha 8] February 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 25% 26% 22%
Eric Greitens vs. Jay Nixon
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Greitens (R)
Jay
Nixon (D)
Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] July 14–15, 2021 922 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 8%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 8%
Eric Greitens vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Greitens (R)
Scott
Sifton (D)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 26% 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 5] October 3–4, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% 9%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] February 17–18, 2021 954 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% 10%
Eric Greitens vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Greitens (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 9] November 16–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 36% 15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 5] October 3–4, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 41% 12%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 35%
Vicky Hartzler vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Vicky
Hartzler (R)
Scott
Sifton (D)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 37% 6%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 22% 17% 61%
Billy Long vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Billy
Long (R)
Scott
Sifton (D)
Undecided
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 13% 12% 75%
Eric Schmitt vs. Jay Nixon
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Schmitt (R)
Jay
Nixon (D)
Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% 8%
Eric Schmitt vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Eric
Schmitt (R)
Scott
Sifton (D)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%
co/efficient (R)[upper-alpha 7] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 23% 18% 60%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 39% 10%
Roy Blunt vs. Jason Kander
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Roy
Blunt (R)
Jason
Kander (D)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 10] January 10–12, 2021 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 44% 12%
Roy Blunt vs. Scott Sifton
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]
Margin
of error
Roy
Blunt (R)
Scott
Sifton (D)
Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[upper-alpha 3] February 17–18, 2021 954 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 40% 10%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican TBD
Democratic TBD
Libertarian Jonathan Dine
Constitution Paul Venable
Independent Rick Seabaugh
Independent Nicholas Strauss
Total votes

Notes

  1. The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Deets with 1%; Brinkmann and Porter with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll conducted for Protect Missouri Values PAC, which supports Schmitt
  2. Poll conducted for Vicky Hartzler's campaign
  3. Non-partisan poll conducted for the local non-partisan tipsheet Missouri Scout
  4. Poll conducted for the Missouri Chamber Political Institute
  5. Poll conducted for Eric Greitens's campaign
  6. Poll conducted for Kunce's campaign
  7. Poll conducted for Missouri First Action, which supports Greitens
  8. Poll conducted for the Serve America Movement
  9. Poll conducted for Team PAC, which supports Greitens
  10. Poll conducted for MoveOn

References

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  75. "Former mayor of Florissant to run as independent for vacant U.S. Senate seat". FOX 2. February 22, 2022. Retrieved February 22, 2022.
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Official campaign websites
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