Aging of the United States

The birth rate in the United States has declined steadily since the beginning of the 19th century, when the average person had as many as seven children.[1] In a 1905 speech, President Theodore Roosevelt criticized Americans for having fewer children, and described the declining birth rate as a "race suicide" among Americans,[2] quoting eugenicist Edward Alsworth Ross.[3][4] In the 1930s, the Great Depression caused a substantial decrease in the birth rate, but this trend was reversed in the subsequent Baby Boomer generation.[5]

More recently, though, the COVID-19 pandemic caused fertility to decline further,[5][6] while also increasing the death rate in the country.[7] At the same time, many women are choosing to have children later in life. This trend could cause the total population of the country to age significantly in the future.[6]

In the modern world, it has become common for developed countries to fall below the replacement level of births or see population decline. Many of these countries have tried to launch government initiatives to combat this trend, including large cash incentives for having more children. The trend of population decrease has been especially notable in Japan, where the population has grown smaller and the average age has risen for much of the 21st century.[8]

Population aging in the US is driven by a variety of factors, including increased access to birth control, changing societal attitudes, and lower fertility among modern Americans.[9] Another major cause is the fact that the Baby boomer generation is getting older, adding a large group of older Americans to the population and causing the median age to move up.[10] COVID-19 is also thought to have led to a large decrease in fertility, since many couples decided to wait until the end of the pandemic to have children. There is also evidence that women are choosing to give birth at a later age, which could lead to a temporary drop in population increase.[11]

Some of the birth rate decline may also have come from a decrease in unintentional pregnancy, especially in the context of the teenage pregnancy rate.[11] At the same time, though, national surveys have shown that most Americans would prefer to have more children, which suggests that problems with financial stability and work-life balance may be a more underlying cause.[12]

Finally, a further factor contributing to an aging workforce is the fact that employment rates among older workers are increasing. The rate of people who continue working after they are 65 is relatively high in the US, when compared to other developed countries. For example, in 2011, 16.7% among people aged 65 and over and 29.9% among 65–69 were employed in the US.[13]

By 2030, 20% of Americans are predicted to be past the age of retirement, which could pose a burden to the healthcare system. While the population of the country is predicted to increase for several more decades, the average age will likely continue to move higher as well. Older and retired people tend to need more health services, which must be provided by their younger counterparts, so some demographers have theorized that this could have a negative impact on the country.[7] Population aging could create an especially large demand for services like nursing homes and caregiving that is unable to be met by the younger generation,[7] while also exacerbating economic inequality by increasing the importance of family inheritance.[14] An overall decrease in the population could shrink the economy by reducing the demand for basic goods like real estate.[15]

A number of potential strategies have been proposed to combat the potential problems caused by an aging population. To deal with the increased demand that could be placed on the healthcare system, telehealth and virtual health monitoring has arisen as a way to help support a larger population of older adults.[28] Alternatively, some people have advocated for offering more paid parental leave and child care, thereby encouraging people to have more children.[15] These policies have already been employed in other areas of the world, and in the Czech Republic they successfully increased the rate of fertility.[29]

Some have argued that reduced immigration will have a larger impact on population growth than the declining birth rate.[30] Immigration has historically been a source of growth for the US, and some have suggested that it could slow or reverse the trend of population aging or decline.[31] However, studies have shown that immigrants from countries with high-fertility rates often have fewer children when they immigrate to a country where small families are the norm.[32] It has also been shown that low-birth rates[33] and sudden increases in immigration often lead to increased feelings of populism and xenophobia.[34] Arguments in favor of increasing immigration to combat declining population levels have sparked outcry from far-right nationalist groups in the United States and some European countries.[35]

Other demographers have suggested that a declining birth rate may have net positive effects on the country.[36] One theory is that the abrupt decline in births seems to have been caused by COVID-19, which could mean that women who postponed having children during the pandemic will still do so eventually.[37] In the past, events like the Great Recession of 2008 created a temporary decrease in the birth rate, but the trend was eventually reversed.[38] Additionally, there is some research supporting the idea that in well-educated countries, it might actually benefit the population to have a birth rate below replacement levels.[39]

Many environmentalists see this trend more optimistically because it could help combat the perceived problem of overpopulation. The world population is expected to reach almost 10 billion by the year 2050, which could pose a burden to Earth's natural resources.[40] Having fewer children has been shown to be an effective way to reduce environmental impact through reduced carbon footprint and higher populations could increase the effects of climate change in the future.[41]