43rd Manitoba general election

The 43rd Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on or before October 3, 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives will attempt to retain the majority they won in the 2019 election. On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he will not seek re-election. Heather Stefanson was elected to succeed him.[1][2]

43rd Manitoba general election
On or before October 3, 2023
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Heather Stefanson Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since October 30, 2021 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Tuxedo Fort Rouge
Last election 36 seats, 47.07% 18 seats, 31.38%
Current seats 36 17
Seats needed 11
 
Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat St. Boniface No seat
Last election 3 seats, 14.48% 0 seats, 6.24%
Current seats 3 0
Seats needed 26 29
Incumbent Premier

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative


Legislature summary
Manitoba Legislature
Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Current Next +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson –3636
New Democratic Wab Kinew 171817
Liberal Dougald Lamont 333
Green James Beddome –––––
  Manitoba Party Wayne Sturby –––––
Communist Frank Komarniski –––––
  Independents 2––––
  Vacant 1–
Blank and invalid votes
Total 225757–
Registered voters/turnout

Incumbents not running for reelection
Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MLA
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[3]
 –

Candidates
See also: List of candidates of the 43rd Manitoba general election

Opinion polls
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates
conducted		 Last date
of polling		 Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin
of error		 Sample
size		 Polling
method		 Lead
Probe Research March 9–March 21, 2022 March 21, 2022 [p 1] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid March 10–March 15, 2022 March 15, 2022 [p 2][p 3] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 January 12, 2022 [p 4] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23–Dec 5, 2021 Dec 5, 2021 [p 5] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24–Oct 5, 2021 Oct 5, 2021 [p 6] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29–October 3, 2021 October 3, 2021 [p 7] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 Sep 20, 2021 [p 8] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 Jun 11, 2021 [p 9] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 Jun 7, 2021 [p 10] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 Mar 26, 2021 [p 11] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020 Dec 4, 2020 [p 12] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 Nov 30, 2020 [p 13] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 Sep 17, 2020 [p 14] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020 Aug 26, 2020 [p 15] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020 Jul 23, 2020 [p 16] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 Jun 11, 2020 [p 17] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 Mar 24, 2020 [p 18] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Innovative Research May 29–June 3, 2020 June 3, 2020 [p 19] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 Mar 24, 2020 [p 20] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019 Dec 10, 2019 [p 21] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election Sep 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates
conducted		 Last date
of polling		 Source Others Margin
of error		 Sample
size		 Polling
method		 Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green

By-Elections prior to 2023 Election
Manitoba provincial by-election, March 22, 2022: Fort Whyte
Resignation of Brian Pallister
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
Progressive ConservativeObby Khan3,05042.51-14.68
LiberalWillard Reaves2,85339.77+22.53
New DemocraticTrudy Schroeder1,11215.50-2.38
IndependentPatrick Allard1011.41—
GreenNicolas Geddert550.77-6.00
Total valid votes 7,174
Total rejected ballots 150.21-0.33
Turnout 7,18942.62-14.57
Eligible voters 15,907—-0.29
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -18.61
Source: Elections Manitoba[4][5]
Manitoba provincial by-election, On or before June 9, 2022: Thompson
Death of Danielle Adams
Party Candidate Votes%±%Expenditures
New DemocraticEric Redhead
Progressive Conservative
Total valid votes
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters —

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Retrieved 2022-03-26.
  2. "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. 2022-03-31. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
  3. "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-03-31.
  4. "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-01-20. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-01-20. Retrieved 2022-01-21.
  5. "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-12-16. Retrieved 2021-12-16.
  6. "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-10-09. Retrieved 2021-10-11.
  7. "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-10-27. Retrieved 2021-10-31.
  8. "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-10-02. Retrieved 2021-10-12.
  9. "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-06-18. Retrieved 2021-06-18.
  10. "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. 9 June 2021. Archived from the original on 13 June 2021. Retrieved 13 June 2021.
  11. "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-03-31. Retrieved 2021-03-31.
  12. "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-01-17. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  13. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. Archived from the original on 2021-01-13. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  14. "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-01-27. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  15. "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-01-14. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  16. "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Archived from the original on 2021-01-20. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  17. "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  18. "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  19. "Manitoba Politics in the Time of COVID-19: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-10-28. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  20. "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  21. Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on 2020-09-17. Retrieved 2021-01-13.

References
  1. Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  2. Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  3. Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (15 July 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 July 2021 – via Twitter.
  4. "Election Night Results Fort Whyte". Elections Manitoba. 22 March 2022. Archived from the original on 23 March 2022. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
  5. "2022". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.