43rd British Columbia general election

The 43rd British Columbia general election will be held on or before October 19, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 43rd parliament of the Canadian province of British Columbia.

43rd British Columbia general election
On or before October 19, 2024 (2024-10-19)
All 87 seats in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia[lower-alpha 1]
44 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader John Horgan Kevin Falcon Sonia Furstenau
Party New Democratic Liberal Green
Leader since May 4, 2014 February 5, 2022 September 14, 2020
Leader's seat Langford-Juan de Fuca Vancouver-Quilchena Cowichan Valley
Last election 57 seats, 47.70% 28 seats, 33.77% 2 seats, 15.08%
Current seats 57 28 2
Incumbent Premier

John Horgan
New Democratic


Background

Section 23 of British Columbia's Constitution Act provides that general elections occur on the third Saturday in October of the fourth calendar year after the last election.[1][2] The same section, though, makes the fixed election date subject to the lieutenant governor's prerogative to dissolve the Legislative Assembly as they see fit (in practice, on the advice of the province's premier or following a vote of non-confidence).[1][3]

The Electoral Boundaries Commission is required to complete redistricting following the 2020 general election. The government appointed commissioners in October 2021. Their preliminary report must be completed by October 21, 2022.[4] The final number of provincial electoral districts, and thus seats in the next legislature, will not be known until their final report is released about six months later.[5][6]

Standings
Standings in the 42nd Parliament of British Columbia
Affiliation House members
2020 election results Current
New Democratic 57 57
Liberal 28 28
Green 2 2
Total members 87 87

Opinion polls
Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source NDP Liberal Green Con. Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Angus Reid N/A Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 1] 44% 29% 14% 9% 3% ±4.0% 604 Online 15%
Research Co. N/A Feb 12–14, 2022 [p 2] 46% 38% 13% 2% 1% ±3.5% 800 Online 8%
Feb 5, 2022Kevin Falcon is elected leader of the BC Liberals
Angus Reid N/A Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 3] 44% 31% 16% 6% 3% ±4.0% 522 Online 13%
Stratcom N/A Nov 2–8, 2021 [p 4] 50% 30% 16% N/A N/A N/A 803 IVR 20%
Angus Reid N/A Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 5] 45% 27% 14% 11% 2% ±4.0% 448 Online 18%
Angus Reid N/A Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 6] 50% 24% 18% 7% 2% ±4.0% 448 Online 26%
Insights West N/A May 26–30, 2021 [p 7] 42% 31% 19% 6% 2% ±3.4% 831 Online 11%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 8] 48% 26% 14% N/A 12% ±1.4% 551 Online 22%
Nov 23, 2020Shirley Bond becomes the interim leader of the BC Liberals
Nov 21, 2020Andrew Wilkinson resigns as leader of the BC Liberals
2020 general election Oct 24, 2020 – 47.7% 33.8% 15.1% 1.9% 1.5% – – – 13.9%
Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
NDP Liberal Green Con.

Notes
  1. A redistribution is underway which may take effect prior to the election. Additional seats may be added as a result of the redistribution.

References
  1. Constitution Act, s. 23.
  2. Shaw, Rob (October 4, 2017). "NDP changes B.C.'s fixed election date from May to October". Vancouver Sun. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
  3. Zussman, Richard (May 26, 2017). "Christy Clark gets 1st chance to govern, but how long can it last?". CBC News.
  4. "Electoral Boundaries Commission members appointed". news.gov.bc.ca. Ministry of Attorney General. October 21, 2021. Retrieved December 13, 2021.
  5. "Electoral Boundaries Commission". elections.bc.ca. Elections BC. 2021. Retrieved December 13, 2021.
  6. McElroy, Justin (May 11, 2021). "B.C. to add up to 6 new MLAs next election — but seats could be reduced in the Interior". CBC News. Retrieved December 13, 2021.

Opinion poll sources
  1. "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  2. "BC NDP Remains Ahead of BC Liberals in British Columbia". Research Co. January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  3. "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  4. "Poll shows high favourability rating for Premier John Horgan". Georgia Straight. December 12, 2021. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  5. "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy, drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  6. "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. June 9, 2021. Retrieved July 5, 2021.
  7. "Government of British Columbia Report Card — May 2021" (PDF). June 2021. Retrieved July 5, 2021.
  8. "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Retrieved January 12, 2021.
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