2023 Kano State gubernatorial election

The 2023 Kano State gubernatorial election will take place on 11 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kano State, concurrent with elections to the Kano State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election will be held two weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections. Incumbent APC Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

2023 Kano State gubernatorial election
11 March 2023
 
Party APC NNPP PDP
Governor before election

Abdullahi Umar Ganduje
APC

 Elected Governor

TBD
TBD

Electoral system

The Governor of Kano State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

Kano State is a highly-populated northwestern state mainly inhabited by ethnic Hausas and Fulanis. It has a growing economy but is facing an underdeveloped agricultural sector, overcrowded urban areas, desertification, and relatively low education rates.

Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized as a reassertion of the APC's federal dominance after mass 2018 defections away from the party led by outgoing Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and his allies. The APC was mainly successful federally, unseating almost all PDP senators and house members to sweep most House of Representatives and all three senate seats as the state was easily won by APC presidential nominee Muhammadu Buhari with over 75% but still swung towards the PDP and had lower turnout. However, state level elections were much closer as Umar Ganduje needed a disputed supplementary election to barely beat the PDP's Abba Kabir Yusuf; the House of Assembly elections were also closer but the APC won a sizeable majority.

Ahead of Umar Ganduje's second term, his administration stated focuses included water resource management, education, healthcare, agricultural development, combating drug abuse, rural development, and security.[3] In terms of his performance, Umar Ganduje was praised for attempting to return out-of-school children to school, calling for restrictions on herding, and education policy.[4][5][6] However, he faced criticism for his feud with the then-Emir of Kano Muhammadu Sanusi II which led to the sacking and illegal forced exile of the emir, briefly banning people of different sexes from riding the same commercial tricycles, downplaying the COVID-19 pandemic, alleged anti-Christian sentiment in the state government and infringements on constitutionally-mandated secularism, further corruption, and nepotism.[7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Umar Ganduje also came over fire for his moves to silence journalists through attempting to interfere with media houses but most notably, when he threatened to "deal with" Jaafar Jaafar (the journalist who exposed videos of Umar Ganduje taking bribes during his first term) and eventually forced Jaafar into self-imposed exile.[15][16][17]

Primary elections

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, will take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022.[2] According to some candidates and community leaders from the state's south, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kano South Senatorial District to have the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Kano governors have come from either the Kano Central or Kano North senatorial districts.[18] However, no major party has yet closed their primaries to candidates from the central or northern regions.

All Progressives Congress

Analysts view the APC gubernatorial primary as a likely battle between the preexisting major factions within the Kano State APC, namely: the faction led by outgoing Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and the G-7 group, lead by Kano Central Senator and former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau along with Kano North Senator and gubernatorial candidate Barau Jibrin. Tensions between the factions reached a head in late 2021 when Umar Ganduje's faction held a parallel party congress and elected separate leadership to the G-7 bloc's congress;[19] courts first ruled that the results of the G-7 congress were legitimate before an appeal gave the legitimacy to Umar Ganduje's congress in February 2022.[20][21][22] In the wake of the ruling in favour of Umar Ganduje's faction, analysts stated that the G-7 would either have to hope that the Supreme Court ruled in their favour swiftly, contest APC primaries under a hostile Ganduje-led Kano APC, or defect to other parties.[23] The party crisis is notably dangerous as violence arose with a massive clash in July 2021 between supporters of Jibrin and Murtala Sule Garo, a commissioner close to Umar Ganduje running for Governor, injuring dozens while Jibrin's campaign office was attacked and burnt down in December 2022.[24][25] The intraparty violence then became deadly in March 2022 when four people were killed in clashes between supporters of Garo and Kabiru Alhassan Rurum, another potential gubernatorial candidate.[26]

Other than the factional crisis, accusations of candidate imposition arose after state First Lady Hafsat Ganduje endorsed Sule Garo at an event in August 2021.[27][28] Although the state government claimed she was recorded out of context, the video of the powerful first lady publicly backing a then-unannounced candidate nine months before the primary led to rumours that Governor Umar Ganduje himself was supporting Sule Garo as well. Sule Garo, who ransacked a collation centre in 2019 with Deputy Governor Nasir Yusuf Gawuna to force the election to inconclusiveness, is from Kano North like Umar Ganduje making his potential nomination angering for those supporting regional power rotation.[29]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms are to be sold from 26 April until 6 May; after the submission of nomination forms by 10 May, candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 12 May while 14 May is the date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses and LGA congresses are set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 18 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made on 20 May.[30][31][32]

Declared

Expressed interest

Withdrew
  • Alhaji Usman Alhaji: Secretary to the State Government (2016–present) and former Commissioner for Education (1999–2003)[40]

Potential

New Nigeria Peoples Party

In early 2022, former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP; while Kwankwaso is ineligible to run for a third term and is running for president, the PDP's 2019 gubernatorial nominee Abba Kabir Yusuf prepared to run for governor again.[44] Some pundits claim that the NNPP has the potential to seriously contest against the major parties with the backing of Kwankwaso's Kwankwasiyya movement.[45]

The national NNPP announced its primary schedule on 12 April 2022, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦10 million with forms being sold from 10 April to 5 May. After the purchase and submission of forms, gubernatorial candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 18 May while the screening appeal process is slated for the next day. Ward congresses are set for 22 April to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 20 May, in concurrence with all other NNPP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made the next day.[46]

Announcement pending

Potential

People's Democratic Party

The years prior to the PDP primaries were beset by party infighting between two different party factions, one backed by former minister Aminu Wali while the other was supported by former Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.[48][49] However, in early 2022, Kwankwaso and many of his allies defected from the PDP to join the NNPP leading Wali to take near-total control of the state party.[50] In the wake of the defections, the national party dissolved the Kano PDP executives and appointed caretakers in their place.[51] As many members of Kwankwaso's Kwankwasiyya movement defected along with him, analysts state that the NNPP's rise has the potential to hurt the PDP in the general election.[45]

On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May is the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses are set for 29 April and LGA congresses are set for 5 May to elect delegates for the primary.[52] Candidates approved by the screening process will advance to a primary set for 21 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result can be made on 24 May.[53][54]

Declared
  • Muhammad Ibrahim Al-Amin Little: 2003 ANPP and PRP gubernatorial candidate[55]
  • Yusuf Bello Dambatta: former Commissioner for Land and Physical Planning (2014–2015), former Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget (2011–2014), and former Commissioner for Finance (2011)
  • Yunusa Adamu Dangwani: former Commissioner for Water Resources (2012–2015) and former Chief of Staff to Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (2011–2012)
  • Muazu Magaji: former Gas Pipeline Project Delivery and Gas Industrialisation Committee Chairman (2020–2021) and former Commissioner of Works (2019–2020)[56]
  • Muhuyi Magaji Rimin Gado: former Chairman of Kano Public Complaints and Anti-Corruption Commission (2015–2022)[57]

Announcement pending

See also

References
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  2. Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
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  4. "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, SEPTEMBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. Abdulahi [sic] Ganduje of Kano State is a Top 5 pick for the month of September for his efforts at ensuring that out-of-school children in the state find their way back to class rooms.
  5. "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS JANUARY, 2021: Ganduje the lone voice of reason". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. At a time the Nigerian nation is deeply divided on the issue of herdsmen crisis...Governor Ganduje, unexpectedly took an unpopular stand, calling for a ban on the movement of herdsmen and their cows from the Northern part of the country to the Middle Belt and the Southern part of the country...We acknowledge that Ganduje, to demonstrate that what he said is actually the solution, has gone ahead to create a better alternative for the herdsmen and their cattle with the establishment of a cattle colony in Samsosua forest at the state’s border with Katsina.
  6. Ogalah, Dunamis. "Hanifa: NAWOJ commends Ganduje for withdrawing private schools licenses in Kano". Daily Post. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
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  8. Ibrahim, Nasir. "Kano govt bans opposite sexes from plying same tricycles – Official". Premium Times. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  9. "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, DECEMBER 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. Ganduje, made headlines days back for banning people of the opposite sex from entering the same tricycle in the state...doubtful that the new order is what the people of Kano State need most at the moment. The state government, however, within a short time of proposing the law, announced its suspension. This signifies that it was obviously not a well thought-out initiative, and that stakeholders were not consulted, nor opinion of citizens sought before the law was put in place.
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