2022 food crises

2022 saw a rapid increase in food prices and shortages of food supplies around the world. The compounding crises in different parts of the world were caused by compounding geopolitical, economic, and natural causes, such as extreme heat, flooding and drought caused by climate change. The crises follow food security and economic crises during the COVID 19 pandemic.

Following the outbreak of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Food and Agriculture Organization, as well as other observers of the food commodities markets, warned of a collapse in food supply and price increases.[1][2][3][4][5] Much of the concern is related to supply shortages of key commodity crops, such as wheat, corn, and oil seeds, which could cause price increases.[3] The invasion also led to fuel and associated fertilizer price increases, causing further food shortfalls and price increases.[5]

Even before the war in Ukraine, food prices were already at record highs: As of February 2022, year-over-year food prices were up 20% according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.[6] The war further increased year-over-year prices another 40% in March.[7] The compounding issues, including COVID-19, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and climate-related crop failures, are expected to reverse global trends in reducing hunger and malnutrition.[8] Some regions, such as East Africa and Madagascar, were already experiencing drought and famine due to agricultural system failures and climate changes, and the price increases are expected to make the situation worse.[5][7] Even Global North countries that usually have secure food supplies, such as the UK and US, are beginning to experience the direct impacts of cost inflation due to food insecurity.[9] Some analysts described the price increases as the worst since the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.[7]

Background
Further information: Food security during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021–2022 global supply chain crisis, and 2021–2022 global energy crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted food supply chains around the world, disrupting distribution channels at the consumption and distribution stages of the food industry. A rise in fuel and transport prices further increased the complexity of distribution as food competed with other goods.

At the same time, significant floods and heatwaves in 2021 destroyed key crops in the Americas and Europe.[10]

Causes

Russian invasion of Ukraine
This section is an excerpt from Economic impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine § Cost of food and crops.[edit]

Wheat prices surged to their highest prices since 2008 in response to the 2022 attacks.[11] At the time of the invasion, Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of corn and wheat, and the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine together responsible for 27% of the world's wheat exports and 53% of the world's sunflowers and seeds.[12] The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, warned in March that the war in Ukraine could take the global food crisis to "levels beyond anything we've seen before".[13] A potential disruption to global wheat supplies could exacerbate the ongoing hunger crisis in Yemen,[14] Afghanistan[15][16] and East Africa.[17] The American Bakers Association president warned that the price of anything made with grain would begin rising as all the grain markets are interrelated. The chief agricultural economist for Wells Fargo stated that Ukraine will likely be severely limited in their ability to plant crops in spring 2022 and lose an agricultural year, while an embargo on Russian crops would create more inflation of food prices. Recovering crop production capabilities may take years even after fighting has stopped.[18]

Surging wheat prices resulting from the conflict have strained African countries such as Egypt, which are highly dependent upon Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, and have provoked fears of social unrest.[19] At least 25 African countries import a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and 15 of them import more than half from those two countries.[20] On 24 February, the Chinese government announced that it would drop all restrictions on Russian wheat as part of an agreement that had been reached earlier in February;[21] the South China Morning Post called this a potential "lifeline" for the Russian economy.[22] On 4 March, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reported that the world Food Price Index reached an all-time high in February, posting a 24% year-over-year increase. Most of the data for the February report was compiled before the invasion, but analysts said a prolonged conflict could have a major impact on grain exports.[23][24]

On 30 March, at a United Nations meeting, the United States Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman stated that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the naval blockade of Ukraine's sea ports and armed attacks on civilian cargo ships, created a critical food shortage in Ukraine, with worldwide ramifications.[25]

Management
Scientists cautioned that policy-makers should not abandon sustainable farming practices to increase grain production in response to resulting food insecurity, but change "the demand side which can [also] lead to both a more resilient and more sustainable global food system"[26] – such as limiting the import of animal feed (e.g. as meat-production requires relatively large amounts of needed foods and of agricultural land)[27] – and e.g. expanding wheat production in high-productivity areas.[28]

From Feb. 2 to April 1 Russia has banned the export of ammonium nitrate (AN) to guarantee supplies for domestic farmers following the spike in global fertilizer prices, which were impacted by rising costs for natural gas.[29]

Climate crises
Further information: Effects of climate change on agriculture

Multiple heat, flooding, and drought events between 2020 and 2022 significantly hurt global food supplies and reserves. These weather events, which have been connected with climate change, made the food system less resilient to shocks like the war in Ukraine. Global reserves of wheat were extremely low at the beginning of 2022 because of these weather events.[30]

East African drought
Further information: 2021 Somali drought and Famine in the Tigray War

A drought in East Africa began in 2021 and further intensified in 2022, precipitated in part by the oncoming La Niña in 2022.[31][32] Three rainy seasons failed in the horn of Africa region, destroying crops and killing large herds of livestock.[31] The UN identified 20 million people at risk of famine.[31] Both wildlife and livestock have been killed by the drought.[31] The region is especially vulnerable because an extreme wet season caused the 2019–2021 locust infestation, which destroyed large regions of crops.[31]

By early October 2021, nearly a year after the Tigray War started, Mark Lowcock, who led OCHA during part of the Tigray War, stated that the Ethiopian federal government was deliberately starving Tigray, "running a sophisticated campaign to stop aid getting in" and that there was "not just an attempt to starve six million people but an attempt to cover up what's going on."[33]

North American Heatwave and drought
Further information: 2021 Western North America heat wave and 2020–22 North American drought

European extreme weather

Droughts in Spain and Portugal during early 2022 led to 60-80% loss predictions for crops in some areas.[34] The huge amount of precipitation in March and early April 2022 in mainland Spain provided relief but did not fully revert the ongoing meteorological drought.[35] Fruit crops in most of Europe were damaged by a cold wave that caused freezing rain, frost, and snow during early budding, after a period of unseasonably early warm weather.[36]

Southern Cone Heat Wave
Further information: es:Ola_de_calor_en_el_Cono_Sur_en_2022

A heatwave that deeply effected Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Southern Brazil caused yield declines for corn, soy, and other key grains, resulting in significant global commodity price increases.[37][38][39][40] The heatwave further exacerbated an already dry season in much of the region.[40]

Australian floods
Further information: 2022 Eastern Australia floods

A severe flood in New South Wales during February 2022 caused the complete destruction of soy and rice crops and 36% of macadamia nut production.[41] Animal herds and farming infrastructure were also severely damaged by the flooding, which was the third major natural disaster to agriculture communities in the region.[42]

Supply chain failures

In China, rolling lockdowns as part of a zero-COVID policy significantly reduced key agricultural inputs for important grain crops.[43]

Effects by region

Afghanistan

Following the Taliban takeover, western nations suspended humanitarian aid and the World Bank and IMF also halted payments to Afghanistan.[44][45] The Biden administration froze about $9 billion in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in US bank accounts.[46] In October 2021, the UN stated that more than half of Afghanistan's 39 million people faced an acute food shortage.[47]

The price increases connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may make the economic crises in Afghanistan following the US withdrawal worse.[48] According to the UN, $4.4bn to pay for increased food costs,[49] with human rights experts calling on the US to unblock assets of the Afghan's central bank to ease humanitarian crisis.[50]

Chile

The 2022 food crises have added to the mounting inflation in Chile has experienced since 2020. Measured by the change in the Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) in March 2022 relative to March 2021 indicate the inflation rate (1.9%) is the highest known since October 1993.[51] Bread and meat prices increased as well as those of food in general.[51] Cooking oil prices have risen, with a particular brands a Santiago supermarket experiencing a 90% price increase from April 2021 to April 2021.[52] The inflation in food prices has is though to be behind an increasing number of supermarket credit card issued in 2022 as well as increasing rates of supermarket credit card debt default.[52] In April 2022, President Gabriel Boric announced a $3.7 billion economic recovery plan that included an increase in the minimum wage to help people deal with rising prices.[53]

Europe

Europe's energy crisis caused by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused significant price increases for European fertilizer and food industries.[54][55] According to Julia Meehan, the head of fertilizers for the commodity price firm ICIS, "We are seeing record prices for every fertilizer type, which are all way above the previous highs in 2008. It's very, very serious. People don't realize that 50% of the world's food relies on fertilizers."[56]

India
Further information: 2022 Indian heat wave

Though early reporting and government policy after the price increases following the war in Ukraine for wheat suggested India was well positioned to export more wheat, by end of April a heatwave that is projected to decrease harvests, increasing local prices, and fertilizer price increases projected a shortfall rather than an export-friendly market.[57] The decrease in harvests was largely driven by the 2022 Indian heat wave which is expected to severely reduce wheat harvest, killing the plants during the final weeks where they are usually growing.[58]

Indonesia

Witnessing extreme price rises around cooking oil which sparked student protests and other civil unrest, the national government of Indonesia banned export of palm oil.[59] As the largest producer of palm oil, and with a harvest decline in the second largest producer and neighbor Malaysia, the ban has caused severe global supply chain disruptions and further exacerbated the price increases caused by the loss of Russian and Ukrainian oil exports and failures of soy crops in South America.[59]

MENA and East Africa

Price increases for certain staples, such as wheat, were expected to most severely affect countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Somalia in MENA and East Africa, which rely heavily on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia.[7] This is expected to further hurt prices in regional food markets, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan.[7]

The changes in the food market caused by the invasion of Ukraine further exacerbated existing drought problems in the already vulnerable Horn of Africa.[31] In February, the World Food Programme and UNICEF had already projected nutrition and hunger gaps for thirteen million people in East Africa.[60] By March, the UN had expanded that number to 20 million people.[61]

North America

North America was already experiencing significant shortfalls and supply chain issues connected to the 2020–22 North American drought and the 2021–2022 global supply chain crisis.[7]

West Africa

Oxfam, ALIMA and Save the Children warned that the food crises in West Africa could affect 27 million people, especially in Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Mali, and Nigeria.[62]

Responses

United States

The Biden Administration responded to the growing shortages in April by trying to increase US farm production. The US policy community was worried about China or other countries filling the food gap. Obstruction in the US Congress prevented new funding and resources for the crises.[30] A group of 160 advocacy groups challenged funding cuts by the Biden administration and Congress to USDA programs.[63]

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