2022 Victorian state election

The 2022 Victorian state election is scheduled to be held on 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election.

2022 Victorian state election
26 November 2022
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Daniel Andrews Matthew Guy Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 3 December 2010 7 September 2021 12 October 2017
Leader's seat Mulgrave Bulleen MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Current seats 55 seats 27 seats 3 seats
Seats needed 18 42
Incumbent Premier

Daniel Andrews
Labor


The incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Daniel Andrews, is seeking a third successive four-year term. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National Coalition, led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. The Greens, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission.

Background

2018 election

The second-term incumbent Labor government, currently led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a decisive victory at the 2018 state election, taking 55 seats–Victorian Labor's third-best seat count ever.

The Labor government will attempt to win a third four-year term, something only John Cain Jr and Steve Bracks have previously achieved. They will be challenged by the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Peter Walsh. Also expected to contest the election is minor party the Greens, currently led by Samantha Ratnam.

Electoral system

Victoria has compulsory voting and uses instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council presently has 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, is 16.7% (one-sixth). The election will be conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Redistribution

The Electoral Boundaries Commission must conduct a redistribution if there have been two general elections since the last redistribution. With the last redistribution occurring prior to the 2014 election, a new one was concluded in October 2021, prior to the 2022 election. According to commentators, Victoria's "booming population" would see new districts created in outer-suburban and inner-city areas, at the expense of middle-suburban areas.[1] At the 2018 election the voter enrollment in individual districts ranged from 61,814 in Cranbourne[2] to 38,937 in Mount Waverley.[3]

On 30 June 2021, the Electoral Boundaries Commission of the Victorian Electoral Commission released draft boundaries for the proposed redistribution by the 2022 election for the Victorian Legislative Assembly. The draft boundaries see the creation of new electorates and the abolition of current ones. The EBC's final report was released on 28 October 2021.

Changes to electorates of the Victorian Legislative Assembly
Current electoratesNew electorates
AltonaPoint Cook
BuninyongEureka
BurwoodAshwood
Ferntree Gullyabolished
Forest HillGlen Waverley
Mount Waverley
GembrookBerwick
Pakenham
Keysboroughabolished
new seatLaverton
YurokeGreenvale
Kalkallo

Date

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. This means that the date for the next election is currently set at 26 November 2022. This would change only if Parliament were dissolved unexpectedly beforehand.[4][5]

Electoral pendulum

The state is underwent a periodic review of its electoral boundaries which was completed in October 2021.[6]

Australian Broadcasting Corporation's election analyst Antony Green calculated the new margins for the election as follows.[7]

Labor seats
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Hastings Neale Burgess (Lib) ALP 0.4%
Hawthorn John Kennedy ALP 0.4%
Nepean Chris Brayne ALP 0.6%
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 1.7% v GRN
Ashwood Will Fowles ALP 2.1%
Ripon Louise Staley (Lib) ALP 2.8%
Pakenham New seat ALP 3.0%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 3.0%
Ringwood Dustin Halse ALP 3.5%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP 3.6%
Morwell Russell Northe ALP 4.6%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 5.8%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP 5.9% v GRN
Fairly safe
Monbulk James Merlino ALP 8.4%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 9.0%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 9.4%
Safe
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 10.2%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 10.3% v IND
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP 10.5% v IND
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 10.5%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP 10.5%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 10.7%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 11.2%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP 11.4%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 11.5%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 12.0%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 12.1%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 12.4%
Point Cook Jill Hennessy ALP 12.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 12.5%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP 12.9%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 13.4%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 13.4%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 14.6%
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 15.0%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 15.8%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 16.1%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP 16.4%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 16.6%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP 16.8%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 17.7%
Tarneit Sarah Connolly ALP 17.7%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 18.6%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 19.0%
Lara John Eren ALP 19.1%
Very safe
Kalkallo New seat ALP 20.6%
Preston Robin Scott ALP 21.1% v GRN
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn ALP 22.1%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 22.1%
Greenvale New seat ALP 22.4%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 23.4%
Laverton New seat ALP 24.0%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 24.9%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP 25.2%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP 25.2%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 27.4%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 28.7%
Coalition seats
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Caulfield David Southwick LIB <0.01%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 0.4%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 0.6%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 0.6%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor (ALP) LIB 0.7%
Glen Waverley Neil Angus LIB 0.7%
Bass Jordan Crugnale (ALP) LIB 0.8%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 0.9%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB 1.0%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 1.9%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 2.2%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 3.3%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB 4.2%
Kew Tim Smith LIB 4.5%
Mornington David Morris LIB 5.0%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.4%
Fairly safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 6.2%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 9.4%
Safe
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB 11.1%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 12.0%
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 14.0%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT 15.3%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 17.6%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 24.0%
Crossbench seats
Mildura Ali Cupper IND 0.3% v NAT
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 1.6% v ALP
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 2.3% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND 5.3% v LIB
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN 9.0% v LIB

Registered parties
See also: List of political parties in Australia

As of 11 March 2022, there were 16 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC):[8]

Retiring MPs

The following members have announced they are not contesting the upcoming election:

Labor

Liberal

Liberal Democrat

Polling

Graphical summary
Primary vote
Two-party-preferred

Voting intention

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
3 April 2022 Resolve Strategic[23][lower-alpha 1] 37% 33%* 10% 19% N/A
15 January 2022 Resolve Strategic[24][lower-alpha 1] 41% 31%* 11% 17% N/A
24 November 2021 Roy Morgan[25] 45% 27% 2% 10.5% 15.5% 59.5% 40.5%
11–17 November 2021 Newspoll[26] 44% 36%* 11% 9% 58% 42%
12 November 2021 Roy Morgan[27] 43% 28% 3% 11% 15% 58% 42%
24 October 2021 Resolve Strategic[28][lower-alpha 1] 38% 34%* 10% 18% N/A
7 September 2021 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
22 August 2021 Resolve Strategic[29][lower-alpha 1] 40% 35%* 10% 15% N/A
12–15 June 2021 RedBridge[30][31] 37% 38% 3% 12% 10% 52.4% 47.6%
13 June 2021 Resolve Strategic[32][lower-alpha 1] 37% 36%* 9% 17% N/A
9–10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[33] 45% 30.5% 4% 11% 9.5% 58.5% 41.5%
29 Oct–4 Nov 2020 YouGov[34] 44% 40%* 11% 5% 55% 45%
12–13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[35] 40% 36% 4% 9% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
28–29 September 2020 Roy Morgan[36] 39% 37% 2.5% 10% 6% 51.5% 48.5%
15–17 September 2020 Roy Morgan[37] 37% 35% 3.5% 12% 8.5% 51.5% 48.5%
6 December 2018 Michael O'Brien becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 November 2018 election 42.9% 30.4% 4.8% 10.7% 11.2% 57.3% 42.7%
23 November 2018 Newspoll[38] 41% 40%* 11% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[39]

Preferred Premier and satisfaction
Opinion polls conducted for preferred premier
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Andrews Guy
Andrews Guy Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
3 April 2022 Resolve Strategic[23] 48% 31% N/A
15 January 2022 Resolve Strategic[24] 47% 30% N/A
24 November 2021 Roy Morgan[25] N/A 63.5% 36.5% N/A
17 November 2021 Newspoll[26] 54% 33% 56% 42% 34% 42%
11 November 2021 Roy Morgan[27] N/A 60.5% 39.5% N/A
24 October 2021 Resolve Strategic[28] 45% 32% N/A
20–24 October 2021 Essential[40] not asked 52% 40% not asked
15–18 September 2021 Newspoll[41] not asked 64% 35% not asked
7 September 2021 Guy replaces O'Brien Andrews O'Brien Andrews O'Brien
22 August 2021 Resolve Strategic[29] 50% 24% N/A
12–15 June 2021 RedBridge[30][31] 42.4% 23.1% 49.7% 46.5% 36.1% 44%
13 June 2021 Resolve Strategic[32] 49% 23% 42% 32% 14% 22%
11–16 November 2020 Essential[42] not asked 65% 28% not asked
9–10 November 2020 Roy Morgan[33] not asked 71% 29% not asked
29 October – 4 November 2020 YouGov[34] not asked 65% 32% 26% 53%
28 October – 2 November 2020 Essential[43] not asked 61% 33% not asked
19–21 October 2020 Ipsos[44] 53% 18% 52% 33% 15% 39%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[45] not asked 54% 40% not asked
12–13 October 2020 Roy Morgan[35] not asked 59% 41% not asked
29–30 September 2020 Roy Morgan[36] not asked 61% 39% not asked
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[46] not asked 62% 35% not asked
8–9 September 2020 Roy Morgan[47] not asked 70% 30% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[48] not asked 57% 37% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[49] not asked 67% 27% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[50] not asked 75% 17% not asked
6 December 2018 O'Brien replaces Guy Andrews Guy Andrews Guy
24 November 2018 election – – – – – –
24–28 October 2018 Newspoll[51] 45% 29% 45% 40% 31% 46%
22–24 October 2018 YouGov not asked 44% 35% 24% 42%
7 October 2018 ReachTEL[52] 51.3% 48.7% not asked
11–13 September 2018 YouGov[53] not asked 40% 42% 25% 44%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[39]

Notes
  1. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.

References
  1. "Final reckoning: Nine views of Victoria's election". 12 December 2018.
  2. "State Election 2018: Cranbourne District results summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 25 December 2018.
  3. "State Election 2018: Mount Waverley District results summary - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 25 December 2018.
  4. Table Office (24 May 2010). "Information Sheet 16 – A New Electoral System for Victoria's Legislative Council". Department of the Legislative Council. Parliament of Victoria. Archived from the original on 31 December 2014. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  5. "Fact Sheet G3: Elections" (PDF). Parliament of Victoria. December 2010. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  6. State boundary reviews Victorian Electoral Commission
  7. Green, Antony. "New Victorian State Electoral Boundaries Finalised – Antony Green's Election Blog". Retrieved 31 October 2021.
  8. "Currently registered parties - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 11 March 2022.
  9. Hui, Jin (14 December 2021). "Dumped MP 'grateful'". Cranbourne Star News. Retrieved 15 December 2021.
  10. "John Eren latest senior Victorian MP to announce he will not be recontesting his seat". The Age. 26 November 2021. Retrieved 26 November 2021.
  11. Garrett, Jane. "Statement from Jane Garrett". Twitter. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
  12. "Backbencher Mark Gepp sixth Victorian Labor MP to resign in two weeks". The Age. 2 December 2021. Retrieved 2 December 2021.
  13. Green, Danielle. "STATEMENT FROM DANIELLE GREEN MP". Facebook. Retrieved 24 November 2021.
  14. Willingham, Richard (24 November 2021). "Victorian Labor MPs Jill Hennessy, Danielle Green and Dustin Halse not contesting 2022 election". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 24 November 2021.
  15. Hennessy, Jill (24 November 2021). "STATEMENT ON 2022 STATE ELECTION". Jill Hennessy MP. Retrieved 24 November 2021.
  16. "Political oblivion for Adem Somyurek allies". The Australian. 14 December 2021.
  17. "Fourth Vic Labor MP won't seek re-election". 7 News. 25 November 2021. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  18. "New face ahead for Narracan as Gary Blackwood steps down". The Warragul and Drouin Gazette. 9 November 2021.
  19. "Statement from Neale Burgess MP". Mirgae News. 11 November 2021. Retrieved 11 November 2021.
  20. "Politics peninsula-style". Mornington Peninsula News. 15 December 2021.
  21. Grand, Chip Le (6 November 2021). "'Best interest': Tim Smith to quit politics at next election". The Age. Retrieved 6 November 2021.
  22. Limbrick, David [@_davidlimbrick] (25 November 2021). "Today I announced my intention to put my hand up for the Federal Senate at the next election, alongside my running mates Krystle Mitchell and Caroline White. Victoria needs voices to fight for freedom in Canberra" (Tweet). Retrieved 4 February 2022 – via Twitter.
  23. Gordon, Josh (6 April 2022). "Labor loses ground but Andrews still preferred premier, poll shows". The Age. Retrieved 7 April 2022.
  24. Smethurst, Annika (19 January 2022). "Labor surges further ahead in state poll despite Omicron wave". The Age. Retrieved 20 January 2022.
  25. "Over three-quarters of Victorians (76%) agree that an employed worker in Victoria is not allowed to enter their employer's workplace unless fully vaccinated". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  26. Baxendale, Rachel (20 November 2021). "Yes we Dan: Andrews on track for third term". The Australian. Retrieved 20 November 2021.
  27. "Victoria's major parties both lose support to minor parties while Premier Daniel Andrews' job approval is over 10% points lower than a year ago". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 13 November 2021.
  28. Smethurst, Annika (27 October 2021). "Labor claws back support as Victorians stick by incumbents". The Age. Retrieved 28 October 2021.
  29. Smethurst, Annika (25 August 2021). "Labor claws back support as Victorians stick by incumbents". The Age. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  30. Deery, Shannon. "Poll reveals Labor's support is falling in traditional heartland". Herald Sun. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
  31. Deery, Shannon (21 June 2021). "Cracks Appear in Red Wall". Herald Sun. pp. 6–7.
  32. Smethurst, Annika (16 June 2021). "Voters shun Labor over COVID but Andrews still preferred premier". The Age. Retrieved 17 June 2021.
  33. "Victorian ALP (58.5%) streaks ahead of L-NP (41.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews approval jumps 12% to 71%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  34. "Majority of Victorians think it's fair to blame Daniel Andrews for the failed hotel quarantine: poll". Herald Sun.
  35. "Victorian ALP still ahead of the L-NP at 51.5% Vs. 48.5%; Premier Andrews' approval down 2% to 59%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 16 October 2020.
  36. "Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 1 October 2020.
  37. "Victorian ALP Government support now 51.5% would win a close election with L-NP on 48.5%". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 20 September 2020.
  38. Ferguson, John (24 November 2018). "Victorian election: Labor on track for poll victory, Newspoll finds". The Australian. Retrieved 24 November 2018.
  39. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 16 July 2020.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  40. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 25 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021.
  41. "Newspoll: Gap closes on lifting coronavirus restrictions". The Australian. The Australian. 20 September 2020.
  42. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
  43. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 3 November 2020. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
  44. Topsfield, Jewel (26 October 2020). "Andrews support strong, but Liberal leader floundering: poll". The Age. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  45. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. 19 October 2020. Retrieved 20 October 2020.
  46. "Two-thirds of Victorian voters back Daniel Andrews despite controversial management of COVID-19 crisis". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 September 2020.
  47. "70% of Victorians approve of the way Premier Andrews is handling his job, but 76% say the Victorian Government should compensate small business". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  48. "Andrews caught in voters' crossfire". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 21 July 2020.
  49. "Newspoll: Premiers sky high as Daniel Andrews' halo slips". The Australian. News Corp Australia. 29 June 2020.
  50. Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
  51. Ferguson, John. "Newspoll: federal leadership turmoil hits Victorian Liberals' campaign". The Australian.
  52. "ReachTEL Poll: Andrews edges clear of Guy as State Election draws near". The Age. 7 October 2018.
  53. "Two-thirds think Melbourne's population is growing too fast". MacroBusiness. 17 September 2018.
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