2022 United States Senate election in Vermont
The 2022 United States Senate election in Vermont will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Vermont. The incumbent, Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, announced on November 15, 2021, that he would not seek re-election. This will become the first open U.S. Senate seat in Vermont since 2006.[1]
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| Elections in Vermont |
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Background
On November 15, 2021, incumbent Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy announced that he would not seek re-election. Leahy will finish serving his eighth term in the U.S. Senate. He is the first Democrat to represent Vermont in the U.S. Senate since his election in 1974. Though Vermont has become a deeply Democratic state since the 1980s, independent Bernie Sanders won election to the U.S. Senate in 2006, after independent Jim Jeffords announced his retirement, despite Sanders rejecting the Democratic nomination. He has rejected the Democratic nomination each time he has sought re-election to the Senate, though he has caucused with Democrats and sought the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination and the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
Vermont is known for giving its senators long tenures in the U.S. Senate, so open elections are rare. Leahy and Sanders have not faced formidable opposition since the start of the 2000s. Long-time U.S. Representative Welch declared his candidacy early after Leahy's announcement and is the favorite in a deep blue state. If elected, Welch would surpass Mitt Romney to become the oldest person ever elected to a first term as a U.S. senator at 75.[2] Still, Republican and former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan's candidacy is considered formidable — a contrast to recent years.[3]
Democratic primary
Declared
- Isaac Evans-Frantz, peace activist[4]
- Niki Thran, physician[5]
- Peter Welch, U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district (2007–present)[6][7]
Democratic candidates[lower-alpha 1]
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Declined
- Becca Balint, president pro tempore of the Vermont Senate (2021–present)[8][9][10][11](running for U.S. House)[12]
- Sarah Copeland-Hanzas, state representative (2005–present)[8]
- T.J. Donovan, attorney general of Vermont (2017–present)[13][14][8]
- Molly Gray, lieutenant governor of Vermont (2021–present)[8][11] (running for U.S. House)[15]
- Christine Hallquist, businesswoman and nominee for governor of Vermont in 2018[16]
- Jill Krowinski, speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (2021–present)[8][17]
- Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. senator (1975–present)[1]
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016[11] (endorsed Welch) (running for U.S. House)[18]
- Tanya Vyhovsky, state representative[19][20][lower-alpha 2]
- David Zuckerman, former lieutenant governor of Vermont (2017–2021) and Democratic and Progressive nominee for governor of Vermont in 2020[21][lower-alpha 2]
Endorsements
Peter Welch
- U.S. Senators
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present), former U.S. representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district (1991–2007), presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020[22]
- State legislators
- Kesha Ram Hinsdale, state senator (2021–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2016[23]
- Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[24]
- League of Conservation Voters[25]
- Population Connection Action Fund[26]
- Labor unions
Republican primary
Declared
- Christina Nolan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Vermont[28]
Republican candidates[lower-alpha 1]
Filed paperwork
- Tom Sullivan[29]
Potential
- Scott Milne, businessman, nominee for governor of Vermont in 2014, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016, and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2020[30]
Declined
- Jim Douglas, former governor of Vermont (2003–2011) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992[31]
- Phil Scott, incumbent governor of Vermont (2017–present) (endorsed Nolan)[32]
Endorsements
Christina Nolan
- Executive Branch officials
- Rodolphe M. Vallee, U.S. Ambassador to Slovakia (2005–2007)[33]
- U.S. Senators
- John Barasso, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2007–present), Wyoming State Senator from the 27th district (2003–2007)[33]
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[33]
- U.S. Governors
- Phil Scott, 82nd Governor of Vermont (2017–present)[34]
- Organizations
- Individuals
- Kenny Chesney, country music singer[33]
Progressive primary
Declined
Minor-party and independent candidates
Declared
- Brock Pierce (Independent), cryptocurrency investor, former actor, and candidate for president of the United States in 2020[35][36]
Filed paperwork
Potential
- Cris Ericson (Independent), paralegal and perennial candidate[30]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[41] | Solid D | November 19, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[42] | Solid D | January 7, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] | Safe D | November 3, 2021 |
| Politico[44] | Likely D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[45] | Safe D | January 10, 2022 |
Polling
- Peter Welch vs. Christina Nolan
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Christina Nolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 62% | 27% | 1% | 10% |
Hypothetical polling
- Patrick Leahy vs. Phil Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Phil Scott (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPR/Vermont PBS | September 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 15% |
Notes
- The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
- Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but runs with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
- "Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, longest-serving member of US Senate, says he won't run for reelection in 2022". news.yahoo.com. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
- "Vermont Democratic US Rep. Peter Welch to seek Senate seat". ABC News. Retrieved April 14, 2022.
- "Balint congressional campaign gets new manager".
- "Isaac Evans-Frantz announces bid for US Senate in Vermont". April 11, 2022. Retrieved April 12, 2022.
- "Physician Niki Thran to run for Vermont Senate seat". January 14, 2022. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- "Rep. Peter Welch announces run for U.S. Senate". WCAX-TV. Burlington, Vt. November 22, 2021. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- Heintz, Paul (November 18, 2020). "If Sanders Joined Biden's Cabinet, Who Would Succeed Him in the Senate?". Seven Days. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- O'Connor, Kevin (November 3, 2020). "Senate leader Becca Balint's new signs hint at future statewide run". VTDigger. Archived from the original on December 5, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- Sukiennik, Greg (November 23, 2020). "Balint, women leaders, Brock make history as Senate leadership shifts". Brattleboro Reformer. Archived from the original on November 29, 2020. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- "Will Leahy Run? As He Ponders, Three Potential Congressional Candidates Gear up". Archived from the original on November 10, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2021.
- Duffort, Lola (December 13, 2021). "Becca Balint, leader of the Vermont Senate joins race for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved December 14, 2021.
- Davis, Eric (October 24, 2019). "Vermont elections may lack drama". Addison County Independent. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
- Xander Landen & Kit Norton (October 29, 2019). "Democrats poll Zuckerman and Donovan for governor as Holcombe presses ahead". VTDigger. Archived from the original on October 29, 2020. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
- "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Archived from the original on December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
- Coleman, J. Miles. "2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved February 16, 2021.
- "Column | Lt. Gov. Molly Gray Says She's Too Focused on Her Current Role to Think About Running for Congress".
- Mearhoff, Sarah (January 13, 2022). "Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale launches campaign for US House". VTDigger. Vermont Journalism Trust. Retrieved January 15, 2022.
- Grim, Ryan (November 14, 2021). "Bernie Sanders could snuff out a potential primary challenge to replace Patrick Leahy". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
- Sukiennik, Greg (November 15, 2021). "Leaders, potential candidates hail U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy as he announces 2022 retirement". Bennington Banner. Archived from the original on November 18, 2021. Retrieved November 18, 2021.
- Lindholm, Jane [@JaneLindholm] (November 15, 2021). "David Zuckerman coming out of the gate fast with his declaration, on @vermontedition, that he will NOT be running for the open Senate seat, and he advises patience for others who are considering jumping in. #vtpoli (Guess I won't make my announcement quite yet, then.)" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021 – via Twitter.
- Knutson, Jacob (November 22, 2021). "Vermont Rep. Peter Welch to seek Leahy's Senate seat". Axios. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
- "Congressman Peter Welch to run for U.S. Senate after Sen. Leahy opts to not seek re-election". Vermont Public Radio. November 22, 2021. Archived from the original on November 22, 2021. Retrieved November 25, 2021.
- "Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World".
- "LCV ACTION FUND ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF NON-INCUMBENT SENATE ENDORSEMENTS". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
- "2022 House & Senate Endorsements".
- "2022 CWA Endorsed Candidates - Vermont". Communications Workers of America. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
- Beals, Monique (February 22, 2022). "Former US attorney launches Senate bid in Vermont". thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved February 22, 2022.
- "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1551726". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved December 15, 2021.
- "Politics1 - Online Guide to Vermont Politics". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
- Reed, Nathaniel [@ReedReports] (November 15, 2021). "JUST IN: Former Longtime Vermont Governor Jim Douglas (R-VT, 2003-2011) tells me (@Newsy) he will NOT run for Senate in 2022. Says he assumes Rep. @PeterWelch (D-VT) "would be the favorite, if he decides to run"" (Tweet). Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 16, 2021 – via Twitter.
- Examiner, Washington (November 15, 2021). "GOP Vermont governor says he won't run for Senate seat Leahy's giving up". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on November 19, 2021. Retrieved November 20, 2021.
- "For Nolan, It's Bad News All the Way Down". Vermont Political Observer. Retrieved April 21, 2022.
- "Nolan to run for US Senate". Retrieved February 28, 2022.
- "Bitcoin Celeb Brock Pierce Outspending Rivals in Vermont Senate Race". March 3, 2022.
- Duffort, Lola (March 3, 2022). "A former child star turned crypto capitalist is bankrolling his own Senate run in Vermont". VTDigger. Valley News. Retrieved April 30, 2022.
- "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1546208". Archived from the original on November 15, 2021. Retrieved November 15, 2021.
- "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1574431". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
- Jin, Danny (January 24, 2022). "Would-be Adams cannabis merchant, a vaccine critic, seeks Senate seat in Vermont". The Berkshire Eagle. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- "Statement of Candidacy" (PDF). Federal Election Committee. November 24, 2021. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- "Vermont Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
External links
- Campaign sites
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