2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election

The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election is due to be held on 5 May 2022. It will elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly. It will be the seventh assembly election since the assembly was established in 1998.

2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election
5 May 2022
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
 
Leader Jeffrey Donaldson[n 1] Michelle O'Neill[n 2] Colum Eastwood
Party DUP Sinn Féin SDLP
Leader since 30 June 2021 23 January 2017 14 November 2015
Leader's seat Running in Lagan Valley Mid Ulster Not running [n 3]
Last election 28 seats, 28.1% 27 seats, 27.9% 12 seats, 11.9%
 
Leader Doug Beattie Naomi Long Clare Bailey
Party UUP Alliance Green (NI)
Leader since 17 May 2021 26 October 2016 21 November 2018
Leader's seat Upper Bann Belfast East Belfast South
Last election 10 seats, 12.9% 8 seats, 9.1% 2 seats, 2.3%
 
Leader Jim Allister Eamonn McCann[n 4]
Party TUV People Before Profit
Leader since 7 December 2007 N/A
Leader's seat North Antrim Not running
Last election 1 seat, 2.6% 1 seat, 1.8%
2022 Northern Ireland electoral map. It shows both the results of individual parties and political communities. The constituencies are shaded as such.
Incumbent First Minister and
deputy First Minister

vacant position & vacant position


In the sixth assembly, elected in 2017, eight parties had Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs): the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), latterly led by Jeffrey Donaldson; Sinn Féin, led by Michelle O'Neill; the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), latterly led by Doug Beattie; the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), led by Colum Eastwood; Alliance, led by Naomi Long; the Greens, led by Clare Bailey; People Before Profit (PBP), who have a collective leadership; and the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), led by Jim Allister.

Background

Electoral events

In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced that the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter.[2] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,[3] which would be 5 May 2022. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

In June 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union, although Northern Ireland voted to remain.[4] The process of withdrawal held particular uncertainty for Northern Ireland due to the potential for customs on the UK-Republic of Ireland border.[5] Meanwhile, an early election was held to the Northern Ireland assembly in March 2017. After the election, Sinn Féin stated that it would not return to a power-sharing arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party without significant changes in the party's approach, including Arlene Foster not becoming First Minister until an investigation into the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal was complete.[6] Over the next few years, the deadline to form an executive was repeatedly extended as negotiations continued with no success.[7][8][9][10][11]

On 18 April 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May called for a general election to be held on 8 June 2017.[12] The Conservative Party lost its parliamentary majority and sought a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP to remain in government. The DUP and the Conservatives reached an agreement on 26 June.[13]

In 2019, the UK experienced significant political turbulence over the question of how to proceed with Brexit. The European Parliament election in May 2019 saw the Alliance Party take the third MEP place from the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). DUP support for the Conservative government broke down with disagreements over the government's Brexit plans. The Conservative government sought a new election, held in December 2019, which they won with a large majority. In Northern Ireland, for the first time, traditional Irish nationalist parties won more seats than traditional unionist parties. The SDLP and Alliance returned to the House of Commons, while the DUP and Sinn Féin saw vote share declines of more than 5%.[14]

A DUP/Sinn Féin executive was re-established on 10 January 2020, forestalling an immediate new election.[15] By the end of February 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was confirmed to have spread to Northern Ireland.[16]

On 15 January 2022, the UK government was accused of interfering in the election by reintroducing dual mandates, which had been abolished in 2016. This would enable MPs like Donaldson to have seats in Stormont as well as Westminster,[17] but plans were withdrawn four days later.[18]

Leadership changes

On 28 April 2021, Arlene Foster announced that she would be resigning as DUP leader on 28 May and First Minister in June 2021 after more than 20 DUP MLAs and four DUP MPs signed a letter "...voicing no confidence in her leadership".[19] Edwin Poots narrowly won the subsequent May 2021 DUP leadership election, but announced his resignation 21 days later.[20] The runner-up in the election, Jeffrey Donaldson, stood unopposed in the June 2021 DUP leadership election and with no other candidates the party chose not to hold a ballot (some parties still do a leadership vote or ballot with one candidate with the other option to re-open nominations). Donaldson was ratified as the party's leader on 30 June 2021.[21] Meanwhile, after Poots elected not to replace Foster as First Minister,[22] Paul Givan took up the position on 17 June 2021.[23]

Steve Aiken announced his resignation as leader of the UUP on 8 May 2021,[24] with Doug Beattie taking up the post nine days later after standing unopposed.[25]

On 9 September, the DUP threatened to pull out of Stormont's power-sharing government, triggering a snap election "within weeks", unless the Northern Ireland Protocol was scrapped. Donaldson warned: "I say not as a threat but as a matter of political reality that our political institutions will not survive a failure to resolve the problems the Protocol has created."[26] The following week, SDLP leader Colum Eastwood accused the DUP of having a "petulant strop" and called for a new law to stop an early election. He told peers that the "delicate constitutional balance" in Northern Ireland was "too fragile for people to play games with".[27]

Northern Ireland Protocol

The Northern Ireland Protocol is a protocol to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that governs the unique customs and immigration issues at the border in the island of Ireland between the United Kingdom and the European Union, and on some aspects of trade in goods between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.[28] Its terms were negotiated in 2019 and agreed and concluded in December 2020. Due to the thirty-year internecine conflict in Northern Ireland, the UK-Ireland border has had a special status since that conflict was ended by the Belfast Agreement/Good Friday Agreement of 1998. As part of the Northern Ireland Peace Process, the border has been largely invisible, without any physical barrier or custom checks on its many crossing points; this arrangement was made possible by both countries' common membership of both the EU's Single Market and Customs Union and of their Common Travel Area.

On 3 February, Givan resigned as First Minister in protest over the protocol, which automatically resulted in the Deputy First Minister losing her role and the Northern Ireland Executive collapsing.[29][30] Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said that the UK government would "reform" the protocol if the EU did not,[31] whilst it was also reported that Westminster was planning legislation that would give ministers powers to abolish the protocol altogether.[32]

During a rally in Ballymena, TUV leader Jim Allister said that the Executive would not be returning unless the protocol was removed.[33]

Calls for early election

Following the collapse of the Assembly, Sinn Féin and the DUP both called for the election to be brought forward, but the UUP, SDLP and Alliance Party opposed the idea.[34][35] Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis ruled out an early election,[36] saying that the priority was to get the Assembly up and running again.[37] Two weeks later, however, Lewis claimed there was "a real risk" that the Executive would not return after the election.[38]

Candidates

Nominations opened on 29 March 2022 for the assembly election and closed on 8 April 2022.[39]

A total of 239 candidates are contesting the 90 available seats in the Assembly, an increase from 228 in 2016.[39] The seats were spread over 18 constituencies, with each constituency having five seats. The election will be conducted using the single transferable vote system.

The table below lists all of the nominated candidates.[40][41] Candidates for the same party in a constituency are listed in alphabetical order, which is the order they appeared on the ballot paper.

  • * indicates an incumbent MLA
  • ** indicates the candidate is the incumbent MLA for a different constituency
  • ^ indicates a former MLA who was not a member at the dissolution of the 2016–17 Assembly
  • Leaders of parties represented in the assembly at dissolution are shown in bold text
Constituency DUP SF SDLP UUP Alliance TUV Green PBP Aontú Others
Belfast East David Brooks

Joanne Bunting*

 Mairéad O'Donnell Charlotte Carson Andy Allen*

Lauren Kerr

 Naomi Long*

Peter McReynolds

 John Ross Brian Smyth Hannah Kenny Karl Bennett (PUP)

Eoin MacNeill (WP)

Belfast North Phillip Brett

Brian Kingston

 Gerry Kelly*

Carál Ní Chuilín*

 Nichola Mallon* Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston Nuala McAllister Ron McDowell Mal O'Hara Fiona Ferguson Seán Mac Niocaill Billy Hutchinson^ (PUP)

Lily Kerr (WP)

Stafford Ward (Ind)

Belfast South Edwin Poots* Deirdre Hargey* Matthew O'Toole*

Elsie Trainor

 Stephen McCarthy Paula Bradshaw*

Kate Nicholl

 Andrew Girvin Clare Bailey* Sipho Sibanda Luke McCann Paddy Lynn (WP)

Neil Moore (SP)

Elly Odhiambo (Ind)

Belfast West Frank McCoubrey Danny Baker

Órlaithí Flynn*

Aisling Reilly*

Pat Sheehan*

 Paul Doherty Linsey Gibson Donnamarie Higgins Jordan Doran Stevie Maginn Gerry Carroll* Gerard Herdman Gerard Burns (Ind)

Patrick Crossan (WP)

Declan Hill (Ind)

Tony Mallon (Ind)

Dan Murphy (IRSP)

East Antrim David Hilditch*

Gordon Lyons*

 Oliver McMullan^ Siobhán McAlister Roy Beggs Jr*

John Stewart*

 Stewart Dickson*

Danny Donnelly

 Norman Boyd^ Mark Bailey
East Londonderry Maurice Bradley*

Alan Robinson

 Caoimhe Archibald*

Kathleen McGurk

 Cara Hunter* Darryl Wilson Chris McCaw Jordan Armstrong Mark Coulson Amy Merron Gemma Brolly Niall Murphy (Ind)

Stephanie Quigley (Ind)

Billy Stewart (Ind)

Claire Sugden* (Ind)

Russell Watton (PUP)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone Paul Bell

Deborah Erskine*

 Jemma Dolan*

Colm Gildernew*

Aine Murphy*

 Adam Gannon Rosemary Barton*

Tom Elliott^

 Matthew Beaumont Alex Elliott Kellie Turtle Emmett Kilpatrick Denise Mullen Derek Backhouse (Ind)

Emma DeSouza (Ind)

Donal O'Cofaigh (CCLA)

Foyle Gary Middleton* Pádraig Delargy*

Ciara Ferguson*

 Mark H. Durkan*

Sinead McLaughlin*

Brian Tierney

 Ryan McCready Rachael Ferguson Elizabeth Neely Gillian Hamilton Shaun Harkin Emmet Doyle Anne McCloskey (Ind)

Colly McLaughlin (IRSP)

Lagan Valley Jeffrey Donaldson^

Paul Givan*

 Gary McCleave Pat Catney* Robbie Butler*

Laura Turner

 Sorcha Eastwood

David Honeyford

 Lorna Smyth Simon Lee Amanda Doherty Gary Hynds (Ind)
Mid Ulster Keith Buchanan* Linda Dillon*

Michelle O'Neill*

Emma Sheerin*

 Patsy McGlone* Meta Graham Claire Hackett Glenn Moore Stefan Taylor[n 5] Sophia McFeely Alixandra Halliday Patrick Haughey (Ind)

Conor Rafferty (Resume NI)

Hugh Scullion (WP)

Newry and Armagh William Irwin* Cathal Boylan*

Liz Kimmins*

Conor Murphy*

 Justin McNulty* David Taylor Jackie Coade Keith Ratcliffe Ciara Henry Daniel Connolly Nicola Grant (WP)

Gavin Malone (Ind)

North Antrim Paul Frew*

Mervyn Storey*

 Philip McGuigan* Eugene Reid Bethany Ferris

Robin Swann*

 Patricia O'Lynn Jim Allister*

Matthew Armstrong

 Paul Veronica Laird Shingleton (Ind)
North Down Stephen Dunne*

Jennifer Gilmour

 Thérèse McCartney Déirdre Vaughan Alan Chambers*

Naomi McBurney

 Connie Egan

Andrew Muir*

 John Gordon Rachel Woods* Chris Carter (Ind)

Alex Easton* (Ind)

Ray McKimm (Ind)

Matthew Robinson (Con)

South Antrim Pam Cameron*

Trevor Clarke*

 Declan Kearney* Roisin Lynch Steve Aiken*

Paul Michael

 John Blair* Mel Lucas Lesley Veronica Jerry Maguire Róisín Bennett Andrew Moran (Ind)
South Down Diane Forsythe Sinéad Ennis*

Cathy Mason

 Colin McGrath*

Karen McKevitt^

 Jill Macauley Patrick Brown Harold McKee^ Noeleen Lynch Paul McCrory Rosemary McGlone Patrick Clarke (Ind)
Strangford Harry Harvey*

Michelle McIlveen*

Peter Weir*

 Róisé McGivern Conor Houston Mike Nesbitt*

Philip Smith^

 Kellie Armstrong*

Nick Mathison

 Stephen Cooper Maurice Macartney Ben King (Ind)
Upper Bann Jonathan Buckley*

Diane Dodds*

 Liam Mackle

John O'Dowd*

 Dolores Kelly* Glenn Barr

Doug Beattie*

 Eóin Tennyson Darrin Foster Lauren Kendall Aidan Gribbin Glenn Beattie (Heritage)
West Tyrone Tom Buchanan* Nicola Brogan*

Declan McAleer*

Maoliosa McHugh*

 Daniel McCrossan* Ian Marshall Stephen Donnelly Trevor Clarke Susan Glass Carol Gallagher James Hope Barry Brown (Ind)

Amy Ferguson (SP)

Paul Gallagher (Ind)

Members not seeking re-election

The following MLAs announced that they would not stand for re-election.[43]

MLA Constituency/Region First elected
or co-opted		 Party Date announced
Trevor Lunn Lagan Valley 2007 Independent[n 6] 22 February 2021[44]
Emma Rogan South Down 2017 Sinn Féin 19 May 2021[45]
Sinéad Bradley South Down 2016 SDLP 24 May 2021[46]
Alex Maskey Belfast West 1998 Sinn Féin 5 August 2021[47]
Chris Lyttle Belfast East 2010 Alliance 29 October 2021[48]
Robin Newton Belfast East 2003 DUP 2 February 2022[49]
George Robinson East Londonderry 2003 DUP 17 March 2022[50]
William Humphrey Belfast North 2010 DUP 17 March 2022[51]
Paula Bradley Belfast North 2011 DUP 17 March 2022[52]
Paul Rankin Lagan Valley 2022 DUP 17 March 2022[53]
Jim Wells South Down 1998 Independent[n 7] 23 March 2022[54]

Campaign

The Sinn Féin campaign avoided talk of a United Ireland,[55][56] with The Irish Times reporting that although it was on the agenda, the focus was on "bread and butter" issues.[57] Sinn Féin called for a £230 payment to help people with the cost-of-living.[58] A threat to destroy a Sinn Féin billboard was reported to the police.[59]

The Democratic Unionist Party campaign has focussed on their opposition to Sinn Féin.[60] The Traditional Unionist Voice said that opposing the Northern Ireland Protocol is "top priority".[61] They have received a number of defections from the DUP.[62] The Green Party pledged the establishment of a bill of rights, an independent Environmental Protection Agency and rent controls.[63] The Social Democratic and Labour Party's campaign has reportedly been difficult.[64] Candidate Elsie Trainor was attacked by youths in Belfast.[65] Leader Colum Eastwood urged tactical voting.[66]

The Ulster Unionist Party campaigned against a United Ireland, with Doug Beattie saying it would not happen in his or his children's lifetime.[67] The Alliance Party has promised to build Casement Park[68] and has been campaigning in constituencies west of the River Bann, where they have never won any seats.[69] Aontú campaigned on an anti-abortion platform.[70] On 13 April it was reported that the Police Service of Northern Ireland had been notified of 41 political poster incidents.[71] The People Before Profit manifesto was launched on 22 April. In it they promised a £1000 to help with cost of living.[72] On 30 April, PBP candidate Hannah Kenny was attacked by three men in East Belfast.[73]

Election debates
2021 Northern Ireland Assembly debates
Date scheduled Organisers Moderator(s)  P  Present[lower-alpha 1]    S  Surrogate[lower-alpha 2]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
DUP SF SDLP UUP Alliance Audience Ref.
1 May UTV Marc Mallett P
Donaldson		 P
O'Neill		 P
Eastwood		 P
Beattie		 P
Long		 Yes [74][75]
3 May BBC One Northern Ireland Jim Fitzpatrick Donaldson O'Neill Eastwood Beattie Long Yes [76]

Opinion polls
Local regression of polls conducted
Date(s)
conducted		 Pollster Client Sample
size		 DUP U SF N UUP U SDLP N APNI O TUV U Green O PBP O Aontú N Other Lead
16–26 Apr 2022 Social Market Research University of Liverpool/Irish News 1,270 18.2% 26.6% 12.1% 10.5% 18.2% 5.7% 2.9% 2.1% TBD 8.4%
22–24 Apr 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,708 20% 26% 14% 10% 14% 9% 3% 2% TBD 2% 6%
11–26 Mar 2022 Social Market Research University of Liverpool/Irish News 1,000 20.2% 27.0% 13.6% 10.2% 14.7% 5.4% 4.3% 2.1% 0.3% 2.2% 6.8%
18–21 Mar 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,281 19% 26% 13% 11% 16% 9% 2% 2% 0% 2% 7%
25 Jan – 7 Feb 2022 Social Market Research University of Liverpool/Irish News 1,002 19.4% 23.2% 14.0% 9.9% 15.6% 6.4% 6.3% 2.3% 0.3% 2.6% 3.8%
3 Feb 2022 Paul Givan resigns as First Minister[29]
14–17 Jan 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,112 17% 25% 14% 11% 14% 12% 3% 1% 1% 2% 8%
5–11 Nov 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,298 18% 24% 14% 12% 15% 11% 2% 2% 0% 2% 6%
21–29 Oct 2021 Social Market Research University of Liverpool 1,002 20.6% 23.5% 13.0% 11.4% 17.3% 5.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.7% 2.4% 2.9%
20–23 Aug 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,403 13% 25% 16% 13% 13% 14% 2% 2% 0% 2% 9%
30 Jun 2021 Jeffrey Donaldson becomes leader of the Democratic Unionist Party[77]
17 Jun 2021 Paul Givan becomes First Minister[23]
17 May 2021 Doug Beattie is elected leader of the Ulster Unionist Party[78]
14–17 May 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 3,072 16% 25% 14% 12% 16% 11% 2% 2% 0% 2% 9%
14 May 2021 Edwin Poots is elected leader of the Democratic Unionist Party[79]
22–25 Jan 2021 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 2,295 19% 24% 12% 13% 18% 10% 2% 1% 0% 1% 5%
2–5 Oct 2020 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph 1,961 23% 24% 12% 13% 16% 6% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1%
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union[80]
11 Jan 2020 The Executive is re-established[81]
12 Dec 2019 United Kingdom general election[82]
9 Nov 2019 Steve Aiken becomes leader of the Ulster Unionist Party[83]
23 May 2019 European Parliament election[84]
2 May 2019 Local elections[85]
23–26 Feb 2018 LucidTalk Northern Slant 2,079 33.6% 32.4% 10.3% 8.6% 8.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% – 1.7% 1.2%
1–4 Dec 2017 LucidTalk GUE/NGL 2,079 33.7% 32.8% 8.9% 8.6% 7.9% 1.1% 2.2% 1.1% – 3.7% 0.9%
8–11 Sep 2017 LucidTalk N/A 2,080 35.5% 31.2% 9.6% 9.4% 8.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% – 1.3% 4.3%
2 Mar 2017 2017 Assembly election – – 28.1% 27.9% 12.9% 11.9% 9.1% 2.6% 2.3% 1.8% – 3.6% 0.2%

* (U): Unionist, (N): Nationalist, (O): Other

See also

Footnotes
  1. Donaldson is the leader of the DUP but he is not a member of the Assembly.
  2. Sinn Féin's president is Mary Lou McDonald but she is not a member of the Assembly. O'Neill is the party's vice president.
  3. Colum Eastwood sits in the House of Commons as the MP for Foyle.
  4. People Before Profit has a collective leadership but for the purposes of registration to the UK Electoral Commission Eamonn McCann is registered as the party's leader in Northern Ireland.[1]
  5. Taylor was suspended from the Greens on 29 April 2022, though his name still appeared on the ballot.[42]
  6. Originally elected as Alliance
  7. Originally elected as DUP

References
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2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election manifestos:

  1. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  2. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
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