2020 United States presidential election in Michigan

The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Michigan voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris of California. Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Michigan
November 3, 2020
Turnout71% [1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,804,040 2,649,852
Percentage 50.62% 47.84%
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Michigan
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
Secretary of State elections
Auditor General elections
State Senate elections
State House elections
Ballot measures
1996
Proposal E
2004
Proposal 04-2
2006
Proposal 06-2
2012
Proposal 1
Proposal 2
Proposal 3
Proposal 4
Proposal 5
Proposal 6
2015
Proposal 1
2018
Proposal 1
Proposal 2
Proposal 3
2020
Proposal 1
Proposal 2
Detroit
Mayoral elections
Flint
Mayoral elections
Grand Rapids
Mayoral elections
Lansing
Mayoral elections

In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988, when George H. W. Bush scored a decisive nationwide win against Michael Dukakis.[4] Throughout the campaign, Biden touted his work on the auto bailout in manufacturing towns outside Detroit. Appearing with United Auto Workers, Biden presented a new proposal to penalize American companies for moving manufacturing and service jobs overseas and then selling their products back in the United States.[5] Polls of Michigan throughout the campaign generally indicated a clear Biden lead. Prior to election day, most news organizations considered Michigan a likely blue state, or a state that Biden was likely to win.

Biden ultimately carried Michigan by a 2.78% margin. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Michigan came from union households, who composed 21% of the electorate and supported Biden by 56%–42%. Biden was also able to boost minority turnout, consequently winning 93% of Black American voters.[6] Many voters were also concerned with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had hit the state hard; 52% of voters felt the pandemic was not under control at all, and these voters broke for Biden by 82%–16%. Trump outperformed his polling average in the state, but it was not enough to win.

Biden flipped the counties of Leelanau, Kent, and Saginaw and became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the presidency without winning Bay or Gogebic Counties, the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to win without Monroe County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to win without Lake County, the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win without Calhoun, Isabella, Manistee, Shiawassee, or Van Buren Counties, and the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 to win without winning Macomb or Eaton Counties, respectively.

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for losing Democrat John Kerry.

Primary elections

The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.

Republican primary

Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[7]

2020 Michigan Republican primary[8]
Candidate Votes  % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 640,552 93.7% 73
Uncommitted 32,743 4.8%
Bill Weld 6,099 0.9%
Mark Sanford (withdrawn) 4,258 0.6%
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 4,067 0.6%
Total 683,431 100% 73

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[9]

2020 Michigan Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes  % Delegates
Joe Biden 840,360 52.93 73
Bernie Sanders 576,926 36.34 52
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 1] 73,464 4.63
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 1] 26,148 1.65
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 2] 22,462 1.41
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 2] 11,018 0.69
Tulsi Gabbard 9,461 0.60
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 3] 2,380 0.15
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 2] 1,732 0.11
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 3] 1,536 0.10
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 840 0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 757 0.05
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 719 0.05
John Delaney (withdrawn)[lower-alpha 4] 464 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 306 0.02
Uncommitted 19,106 1.20
Total 1,587,679 100% 125

General election

Final predictions
Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[11] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections[12] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] Lean D (flip)
Politico[14] Lean D (flip)
RCP[15] Tossup
Niskanen[16] Likely D (flip)
CNN[17] Lean D (flip)
The Economist[18] Likely D (flip)
CBS News[19] Lean D (flip)
270towin[20] Lean D (flip)
ABC News[21] Lean D (flip)
NPR[22] Lean D (flip)
NBC News[23] Lean D (flip)
538[24] Solid D (flip)

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 5]		 Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.9% 44.4% 5.7% Biden +5.5
Real Clear Politics October 29 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.0% 45.8% 4.2% Biden +4.2
FiveThirtyEight until November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 51.2% 43.2% 5.6% Biden +7.9
Average 50.4% 44.5% 5.1% Biden +5.9

2020 polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 4,549 (LV) ± 2% 46%[lower-alpha 7] 52% - - – –
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 50% - - 2%[lower-alpha 8] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 383 (LV) ± 5.01% 44% 51% 3% 1% – 1%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1 413 (LV) ± 6.5% 45% 54% 1% 0% – –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1 654 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[lower-alpha 9] 53% 1% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 10] –
42%[lower-alpha 11] 52% - - 3%[lower-alpha 12] 3%
45%[lower-alpha 13] 53% - - 2%[lower-alpha 14] –
Trafalgar Group Oct 30–31 1,033 (LV) ± 2.97% 48% 46% 2% - 1% 3%
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31 686 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% - - 6% –
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[upper-alpha 1] Oct 30–31 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% 2% - – 3%
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 1,736 (LV) ± 2.0% 44.5% 52% - - – –
Emerson College Oct 29–30 700 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[lower-alpha 15] 52% - - 3%[lower-alpha 16] –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] Oct 29–30 745 (V) ± 3.6% 44% 54% 1% 0% – 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30 993 (LV) – 39% 53% - - 8%[lower-alpha 17] –
CNN/SSRS Oct 23–30 907 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 53% 2% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 18] 2%
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Oct 29 817 (LV) ± 3.43% 45% 52% 1% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 19] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 27–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44%[lower-alpha 9] 51% - - 3% 2%
42%[lower-alpha 20] 53% - - 3% 2%
45%[lower-alpha 21] 50% - - 3% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 1,212 (LV) – 41% 54% 1% 0% 1% 4%
EPIC-MRA Oct 25–28 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 48% - - 5%[lower-alpha 22] 6%[lower-alpha 23]
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28 1,058 (LV) ± 2.93% 49% 47% 2% - 1%[lower-alpha 24] 1%
Kiaer Research Oct 21–28 669 (LV) ± 5.6% 41% 54% - - 2%[lower-alpha 25] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 7,541 (LV) – 45% 53% - - – –
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Oct 25–27 759 (LV) ± 3.56% 42% 52% 3% 0% 0%[lower-alpha 26] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 394 (LV) ± 6.7% 40% 59% 2% 0% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 23–26 856 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 49% 2% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 27] 6%[lower-alpha 23]
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 20–26 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 43%[lower-alpha 9] 53% 1% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 10] –
43%[lower-alpha 11] 52% - - 3%[lower-alpha 12] 3%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 48% - - – –
Glengariff Group/Detroit News Oct 23–25 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% - - 2%[lower-alpha 28] 4%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 20–25 789 (LV) ± 4% 44% 51% 3% 0% 0%[lower-alpha 29] 1%
Gravis Marketing Oct 24 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 55% - - – 3%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC[upper-alpha 3] Oct 21–22 804 (V) – 43% 50% - - – 6%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Oct 13–21 681 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 52% - - 5%[lower-alpha 30] –
Citizen Data Oct 17–20 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 41% 50% 1% 0% 1% 7%
Fox News Oct 17–20 1,032 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 52% 3% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 31] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–20 686 (LV) ± 4.3% 44%[lower-alpha 9] 52% 2% 0% 2%[lower-alpha 10] –
44%[lower-alpha 11] 51% - - 3%[lower-alpha 12] 2%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 1,717 (LV) ± 2.4% 44% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 718 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] – 44% 51% - - – –
EPIC-MRA Oct 15–19 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 5%[lower-alpha 33] 8%[lower-alpha 23]
Mitchell Research (R)/MIRS Oct 18 900 (LV) ± 3.27% 41% 51% 3% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 24] 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 4] Oct 15–18 1,034 (LV) ± 2.97% 47% 45% 3% 2% 2%[lower-alpha 8] 2%
Data For Progress Oct 15–18 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 50% 2% 0% – 3%
Zia Poll/Painter Communications/MIRS News Oct 11–18 2,851 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% - - 2% 3%
HarrisX/The Hill Oct 12–15 1,289 (LV) – 43% 54% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 11–14 1,025 (LV) ± 2.97% 47% 46% 3% 2% 2%[lower-alpha 8] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 972 (LV) – 42%[lower-alpha 32] 51% 1% 0% – –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 8–13 800 (LV) – 42%[lower-alpha 9] 48% 2% 1% 1% 5%
39%[lower-alpha 20] 51% 2% 1% 1% 5%
44%[lower-alpha 21] 46% 2% 1% 1% 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–13 620 (LV) ± 4.5% 44%[lower-alpha 9] 51% 2% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 34] –
43%[lower-alpha 11] 51% - - 3%[lower-alpha 12] 2%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Oct 8–12 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 4%[lower-alpha 35] 9%[lower-alpha 23]
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 5] Oct 8–11 543 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 52% - - 4%[lower-alpha 36] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 6–11 614 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 48% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 37] 8%[lower-alpha 23]
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 1,710 (LV) ± 2.4% 44% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 827 (LV) – 41%[lower-alpha 32] 51% 2% 1% – –
YouGov/CBS Oct 6–9 1,190 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 52% - - 2%[lower-alpha 38] 0%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 8 1,134 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 50% 1% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 39] 4%
Emerson College Oct 6–7 716 (LV) ± 3.6% 43%[lower-alpha 15] 54% - - 2%[lower-alpha 8] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 42% 50% 1% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 40] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 6] Oct 3–6 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 44%[lower-alpha 15] 52% - - 2% 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 6 709 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 51% - - 2%[lower-alpha 41] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 676 (LV) – 43% 51% - - – –
Glengariff Group/Detroit News Sep 30 – Oct 3 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 48% - - 5%[lower-alpha 42] 7%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] Sep 30 – Oct 1 746 (V) – 44% 50% 2% 1% – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 3,297 (LV) – 44% 53% - - – 3%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 4] Sep 26–28 1,042 (LV) ± 2.95% 47% 49% 2% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 24] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–26 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 51% 1% 0% 0%[lower-alpha 43] 6%
Marist College/NBC Sep 19–23 799 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 52% - - 1% 3%
ALG Research/Committee to Protect Medicare[upper-alpha 7] Sep 17–23 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Sep 20–22 1,015 (LV) ± 2.99% 46.7% 46.0% 2.1% 0.8% 1.2%[lower-alpha 44] 3.2%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–22 1,001 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 50% 1% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 45] 6%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal		 Sep 10–21 641 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 568 (LV) – 43% 51% - - – –
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[upper-alpha 8] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 50% - - – –
Data for Progress (D) Sep 14–19 455 (LV) ± 4.6% 42%[lower-alpha 9] 48% 1% 0% – 9%
44%[lower-alpha 46] 50% - - – 6%
MRG Sep 14–19 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 46% - - 8%[lower-alpha 47] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–16 637 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% - - 2%[lower-alpha 41] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 5] Sep 11–15 517 (RV) – 42% 53% - - 3%[lower-alpha 16] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14 930 (LV) ± 3.21% 39% 49% 2% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 43] 9%
EPIC-MRA Sep 10–15 600 (LV) ± 4% 40% 48% - - 5%[lower-alpha 33] 7%[lower-alpha 23]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 43% 50% - - 1%[lower-alpha 48] 5%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 1,455 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42%[lower-alpha 49] 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 876 (LV) – 43% 49% - - 7%[lower-alpha 50] –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Sep 2–3 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 44%[lower-alpha 15] 53% - - 3%[lower-alpha 51] –
Glengariff Group Sep 1–3 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 47% - - 4%[lower-alpha 52] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3 967 (LV) ± 3.15% 40% 51% 1% 0% 1%[lower-alpha 40] 7%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[upper-alpha 6] Aug 30 – Sep 2 802 (LV) ± 3.46% 44%[lower-alpha 15] 51% 2% 1% 0%[lower-alpha 53] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 2,962 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 3%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 1,424 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42% 52% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] Aug 28–29 897 (V) – 44% 48% 3% 1% – 3%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 809 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Aug 14–23 1,048 (LV) ± 2.98% 47% 45% 3% - 1%[lower-alpha 54] 4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–19 812 (LV) – 38% 50% 1% 1% 1%[lower-alpha 55] 9%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising[upper-alpha 5] Aug 13–17 631 (RV) – 46% 49% - - 3%[lower-alpha 16] 1%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 1,212 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 44% 50% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 4] Aug 11–15 600 (LV) – 41% 52% - - – 7%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 413 (LV) – 43% 48% - - – –
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Jul 27 – Aug 6 761 (RV) ± 5.1% 43% 47% - - 5%[lower-alpha 56] 6%
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC[upper-alpha 9] Jul 30 – Aug 4 1,245 (LV) – 43% 52% - - – –
David Binder Research Jul 30–31 200 (LV) – 41% 51% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 3,083 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 2%
EPIC-MRA Jul 25–30 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 51% 3% - - 6%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] Jul 28–29 876 (V) – 43% 49% - - 6%[lower-alpha 57] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 24–26 413 (LV) – 42% 46% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 1,320 (LV) ± 2.7% 42% 52% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 21–24 1,156 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 48% - - 2%[lower-alpha 58] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–24 811 (LV) – 37% 49% 1% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 59] 10%
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 927 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 52% - - 5%[lower-alpha 60] 2%
Gravis Marketing Jul 22 754 (RV) ± 3.6% 42% 51% - - – 7%
Fox News Jul 18–20 756 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% - - 4%[lower-alpha 61] 7%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC[upper-alpha 4] Jul 13–16 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% - - – 7%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[upper-alpha 10] Jul 11–16 600 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 45% - - – 5%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 824 (LV) – 42% 48% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Giffords (D)[upper-alpha 11] Jul 9–10 1,041 (V) ± 3.2% 44% 51% - - – 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 1,238 (LV) – 46% 51% - - – 3%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 699 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] – 43% 48% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan (D)[upper-alpha 2] Jun 26–27 1,237 (V) – 44% 50% - - 5%[lower-alpha 62] 1%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Jun 17–20 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 56% - - 2%[lower-alpha 63] 7%
Trafalgar Group Jun 16–18 1,101 (LV) ± 2.95% 45% 46% - - 5%[lower-alpha 33] 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–17 610 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 47% - - 8%[lower-alpha 64] 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–16 826 (LV) ± 3.41% 36% 47% 2% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 65] 12%
TargetPoint Jun 11–16 1,000 (A) – 33% 49% - - 4%[lower-alpha 66] 14%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 353 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] – 45% 47% - - 3%[lower-alpha 67] –
TIPP/American Greatness PAC Archived June 16, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] Jun 9–12 859 (LV) – 38% 51% - - 4%[lower-alpha 68] 7%
Kiaer Research May 31 – Jun 7 543 (LV) ± 6.4% 35% 50% - - 6%[lower-alpha 69] 8%
EPIC-MRA May 31 – Jun 4 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 55% - - – –
EPIC-MRA May 30 – Jun 3 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 53% - - – 6%[lower-alpha 23]
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 620 (LV)[lower-alpha 32] – 46% 48% - - 3% 3%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Michigan[upper-alpha 2] May 29–30 1,582 (V) ± 2.5% 44% 50% - - 4%[lower-alpha 70] 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 1,325 (LV) – 42% 50% - - – –
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care[upper-alpha 12] May 18–19 1,234 (V) ± 2.8% 45% 51% - - – 5%
Change Research/Crooked Media May 11–17 3,070 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 970 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 47% - - 3%[lower-alpha 71] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) May 1–5 600 (LV) ± 3% 42% 50% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 13] Apr 28–29 1,270 (V) – 42% 50% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 14] Apr 20–21 1,277 (RV) – 44% 51% - - – 5%
Fox News Apr 18–21 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 49% - - 3% 6%
Ipsos/Reuters Apr 15–20 612 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 46% - - – –
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Apr 9–11 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% - - – –
Hart Research/CAP Action[upper-alpha 15] Apr 6–8 303 (RV) – 41% 50% - - 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling Mar 31 – Apr 1 1,019 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 48% - - – 7%
SPRY Strategies Mar 30 – Apr 1 602 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% - - – 8%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 47% - - – 11%
Change Research Mar 21–23 510 (LV) – 47% 48% - - 5%
Marketing Resource Group Mar 16–20 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% - - 9%[lower-alpha 72] 6%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 12–16 600 (RV) – 44% 50% - - – –
AtlasIntel Mar 7–9 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 44% - - 10% –
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8 566 (RV) – 41% 45% - - 6%[lower-alpha 73] 7%
Monmouth University Mar 5–8 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 48% - - 2% 9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 46% 44% - - – –
YouGov Feb 11–20 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% - - – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 47% - - 6%[lower-alpha 74] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18 500 (RV) – 43% 43% - - – 14%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Jan 9–12 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 50% - - – 6%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - – 5%

2017–2019 polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 41% 8% [lower-alpha 75] 5% [lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 56% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 44% 45% – –
Target Insyght Sep 24–26, 2019 800 (LV) – 35% 54% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17% –
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 36% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 76] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 46% 11% –
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 7%
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 4%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 42% 45% – 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 4% –
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 54% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 53% – 5%
EPIC-MRA Apr 28–30, 2018 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 52% – 9%
Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 35% 52% – 13%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 77] 4%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 41% 46% – 13%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 49% – 9%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 41% 47% – 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8% [lower-alpha 75] 7% [lower-alpha 23]

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Cory
Booker (D)		 Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%[lower-alpha 78] 16%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 41% 47% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 45% 8%[lower-alpha 79] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 40% 44% – 15%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 47% – 10%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 45% – 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8% [lower-alpha 80] 6% [lower-alpha 23]
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 7%[lower-alpha 78] 16%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 40% 16% –
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 47% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Kamala
Harris (D)		 Other Undecided
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 41% 6%[lower-alpha 81] 14%
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 9%
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% – 10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Amy
Klobuchar (D)		 Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 44% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 74] 4%
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 53% – –

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Beto
O'Rourke (D)		 Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 39% 8% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 45% – 13%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 12–16, 2020 600 (RV) – 44% 49% – –
AtlasIntel Mar 7–9, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11% –
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 566 (RV) – 42% 43% 7%[lower-alpha 82] 8%
Monmouth University Mar 5–8, 2020 977 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 46% 2% 9%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7, 2020 550 (RV) ± 5.3% 48% 41% – –
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 48% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 7%[lower-alpha 77] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 42% 46% – 12%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 50% – 5%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 49% – 5%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 42% 6% [lower-alpha 83] 5% [lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 57% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 42% 46% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 40% 17% –
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 84] 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 44% 12% –
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 53% – 5%
Tulchin Research (D)[upper-alpha 16] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 52% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 530 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 45% 6% –
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 52% – 6%
Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 36% 54% – 10%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,249 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 46% – –
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020 845 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 45% 7%[lower-alpha 85] 4%
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% – 7%
Glengariff Group Inc. Jan 3–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% – 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019 551 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 8% [lower-alpha 86] 6% [lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College Oct 31 – Nov 3, 2019 1,051 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54% – –
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 501 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 40% – –
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 529 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17% –
EPIC-MRA Aug 17–21, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% – 8%
Climate Nexus Jul 14–17, 2019 820 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 6%[lower-alpha 81] 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 587 (LV) ± 4.2% 43% 41% 16% –
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 47% – 9%
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% – –
Glengariff Group Archived April 22, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 10%
Zogby Analytics Sep 2017 800 (V) – 37% 46% – 17%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 51% – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Justin Amash

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Justin
Amash (L)		 Undecided
Glengariff Group May 28–30, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 10% 6%

with Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Joe
Biden (D)		 Howard
Schultz (I)		 Undecided
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 52% 4% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Howard
Schultz (I)		 Undecided
Emerson College Mar 7–10, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% 6% –

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Democrat (D)		 Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 43.2%[lower-alpha 87] 54.0% 2.9%[lower-alpha 88]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020 500 (RV) – 38% 50% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8-20, 2020 1,023 (RV) ± 3.1% 36.4%[lower-alpha 87] 50.3% 13.3%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 767 (RV) ± 4% 27% 39% 25%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 6]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
EPIC-MRA Jul 25 - 30, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 37% 49%[lower-alpha 89] 14%
EPIC-MRA May 31 – Jun 4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 33% 51%[lower-alpha 89] 13%[lower-alpha 90]
EPIC-MRA May 30 – Jun 3, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 38% 51%[lower-alpha 89] 8%[lower-alpha 90]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Jan 9–12, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 34% 44%[lower-alpha 89] 22%[lower-alpha 91]
EPIC-MRA Jun 8–12, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 32% 45%[lower-alpha 92] 23%[lower-alpha 93]
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press Mar 3–7, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 49%[lower-alpha 94] 20%[lower-alpha 95]
Glengariff Group/WDIV/Detroit News Jan 24–26, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4% 31% 53% 15%[lower-alpha 96]

General election results
2020 United States presidential election in Michigan[25][26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,804,040 50.62% +3.35%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 2,649,852 47.84% +0.34%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 60,381 1.09% -2.50%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker		 13,718 0.25% -0.82%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr		 7,235 0.13% N/A
Natural Law Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson		 2,986 0.05% N/A
Write-in Brian T. Carroll 963 0.02% +0.01%
Write-in Jade Simmons 89 <0.01% N/A
Write-in Tom Hoefling 32 <0.01% N/A
Write-in 6 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 5,539,302 100.00%

By county
CountyJoe Biden
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Jo Jorgensen
Libertarian		Other votesTotal
votes
 % #  % #  % #  % #
Alcona 30.32% 2,142 68.63% 4,848 0.71% 50 0.34% 23 7,063
Alger 39.98% 2,053 58.70% 3,014 0.80% 41 0.53% 27 5,135
Allegan 36.39% 24,449 61.60% 41,392 1.40% 943 0.61% 298 67,082
Alpena 35.32% 6,000 62.91% 10,686 1.30% 220 0.48% 81 16,987
Antrim 37.32% 5,960 61.03% 9,748 1.18% 189 0.47% 75 15,972
Arenac 31.38% 2,774 67.07% 5,928 1.10% 97 0.45% 40 8,839
Baraga 36.52% 1,478 62.07% 2,512 0.77% 31 0.64% 26 4,047
Barry 32.80% 11,797 65.27% 23,471 1.33% 479 0.60% 214 35,961
Bay 43.34% 26,151 54.90% 33,125 1.14% 688 0.61% 369 60,333
Benzie 44.69% 5,480 53.83% 6,601 1.04% 128 0.43% 53 12,262
Berrien 45.34% 37,438 52.71% 43,519 1.29% 1,062 0.66% 546 82,565
Branch 29.94% 6,159 68.36% 14,064 1.05% 216 0.65% 134 20,573
Calhoun 43.57% 28,877 54.65% 36,221 1.34% 890 0.44% 293 66,281
Cass 34.79% 9,130 63.63% 16,699 1.09% 286 0.48% 127 26,242
Charlevoix 40.75% 6,939 57.79% 9,841 0.94% 160 0.53% 90 17,030
Cheboygan 34.22% 5,437 64.10% 10,186 1.23% 196 0.45% 71 15,890
Chippewa 37.62% 6,648 60.44% 10,681 1.32% 233 0.62% 109 17,671
Clare 31.91% 5,199 66.65% 10,861 0.99% 162 0.45% 73 16,295
Clinton 45.84% 21,968 52.37% 25,098 1.38% 659 0.42% 202 47,927
Crawford 33.99% 2,672 64.71% 5,087 0.88% 69 0.42% 33 7,861
Delta 35.93% 7,606 62.39% 13,207 1.18% 249 0.50% 105 21,167
Dickinson 32.46% 4,744 65.80% 9,617 1.28% 187 0.46% 67 14,615
Eaton 48.66% 31,299 49.43% 31,798 1.39% 895 0.52% 335 64,327
Emmet 43.50% 9,662 54.64% 12,135 1.28% 284 0.58% 128 22,209
Genesee 53.84% 119,390 44.51% 98,714 1.01% 2,234 0.64% 1,426 221,764
Gladwin 30.95% 4,524 67.69% 9,893 0.97% 142 0.38% 56 14,615
Gogebic 43.14% 3,570 55.58% 4,600 0.81% 67 0.47% 39 8,276
Grand Traverse 47.53% 28,683 50.54% 30,502 1.32% 796 0.62% 372 60,353
Gratiot 34.95% 6,693 63.20% 12,102 1.25% 240 0.59% 113 19,148
Hillsdale 25.25% 5,883 73.11% 17,037 1.12% 261 0.52% 121 23,302
Houghton 41.82% 7,750 56.00% 10,378 1.54% 285 0.64% 120 18,533
Huron 29.77% 5,490 69.03% 12,731 0.79% 145 0.41% 76 18,442
Ingham 65.18% 94,212 32.96% 47,639 1.30% 1,873 0.58% 826 144,550
Ionia 33.84% 10,901 64.13% 20,657 1.52% 490 0.50% 161 32,209
Iosco 34.92% 5,373 63.42% 9,759 0.99% 152 0.67% 103 15,387
Iron 36.69% 2,493 62.05% 4,216 0.79% 54 0.47% 32 6,795
Isabella 47.74% 14,072 50.26% 14,815 1.24% 365 0.76% 224 29,476
Jackson 39.49% 31,995 58.47% 47,372 1.37% 1,113 0.66% 534 81,014
Kalamazoo 58.22% 83,686 39.53% 56,823 1.44% 2,064 0.81% 1,173 143,746
Kalkaska 28.24% 3,002 69.95% 7,436 1.34% 142 0.48% 51 10,631
Kent 51.91% 187,915 45.78% 165,741 1.52% 5,495 0.79% 2,880 362,031
Keweenaw 43.16% 672 55.36% 862 1.09% 17 0.39% 6 1,557
Lake 36.13% 2,288 62.32% 3,946 1.03% 65 0.52% 33 6,332
Lapeer 31.04% 16,367 67.29% 35,482 1.09% 573 0.59% 310 52,732
Leelanau 52.04% 8,795 46.84% 7,916 0.79% 134 0.33% 55 16,900
Lenawee 39.13% 20,918 59.01% 31,541 1.29% 690 0.57% 303 53,452
Livingston 37.91% 48,220 60.52% 76,982 1.19% 1,511 0.38% 484 127,197
Luce 28.00% 842 70.14% 2,109 0.90% 27 0.97% 29 3,007
Mackinac 37.47% 2,632 61.27% 4,304 0.80% 56 0.47% 33 7,025
Macomb 45.31% 223,952 53.39% 263,863 0.90% 4,462 0.40% 1,979 494,256
Manistee 41.60% 6,107 56.69% 8,321 1.05% 154 0.66% 97 14,679
Marquette 54.50% 20,465 43.37% 16,286 1.36% 511 0.77% 288 37,550
Mason 39.36% 6,802 59.06% 10,207 0.83% 143 0.76% 131 17,283
Mecosta 34.98% 7,375 62.93% 13,267 1.44% 303 0.65% 136 21,081
Menominee 34.20% 4,316 64.31% 8,117 0.99% 125 0.50% 63 12,621
Midland 41.67% 20,493 56.28% 27,675 1.43% 701 0.62% 306 49,175
Missaukee 22.47% 1,967 75.93% 6,648 1.27% 111 0.33% 29 8,755
Monroe 37.78% 32,980 60.39% 52,722 1.24% 1,086 0.59% 511 87,299
Montcalm 30.19% 9,703 67.88% 21,815 1.33% 428 0.60% 192 32,138
Montmorency 27.77% 1,628 71.14% 4,171 0.65% 38 0.44% 26 5,863
Muskegon 49.37% 45,643 48.82% 45,133 1.32% 1,219 0.48% 449 92,444
Newaygo 28.95% 7,873 69.33% 18,857 1.22% 331 0.50% 136 27,197
Oakland 56.24% 434,148 42.22% 325,971 0.94% 7,282 0.59% 4,590 771,991
Oceana 35.11% 4,944 63.15% 8,892 1.18% 166 0.55% 78 14,080
Ogemaw 29.15% 3,475 69.23% 8,253 1.12% 134 0.49% 59 11,921
Ontonagon 36.51% 1,391 61.89% 2,358 0.79% 30 0.81% 31 3,810
Osceola 26.05% 3,214 72.35% 8,928 1.09% 135 0.51% 63 12,340
Oscoda 27.50% 1,342 71.02% 3,466 0.80% 39 0.68% 33 4,880
Otsego 32.10% 4,743 66.19% 9,779 1.20% 177 0.51% 76 14,775
Ottawa 38.35% 64,705 59.81% 100,913 1.37% 2,315 0.46% 780 168,713
Presque Isle 34.84% 2,911 63.94% 5,342 0.84% 70 0.38% 32 8,355
Roscommon 34.36% 5,166 64.32% 9,670 0.80% 121 0.51% 77 15,034
Saginaw 49.37% 51,088 49.08% 50,785 0.97% 1,007 0.58% 603 103,483
Sanilac 26.58% 5,966 72.15% 16,194 0.95% 213 0.33% 73 22,446
Schoolcraft 33.49% 1,589 65.12% 3,090 0.84% 40 0.55% 26 4,745
Shiawassee 39.05% 15,347 58.90% 23,149 1.33% 524 0.71% 281 39,301
St. Clair 34.02% 31,363 64.19% 59,185 1.20% 1,109 0.59% 545 92,202
St. Joseph 33.10% 9,262 64.78% 18,127 1.49% 416 0.63% 176 27,981
Tuscola 29.55% 8,712 68.85% 20,297 1.11% 327 0.49% 143 29,479
Van Buren 42.92% 16,803 55.16% 21,591 1.29% 504 0.63% 248 39,146
Washtenaw 72.44% 157,136 25.93% 56,241 0.90% 1,956 0.74% 1,598 216,931
Wayne 68.32% 597,170 30.27% 264,553 0.75% 6,567 0.65% 5,728 874,018
Wexford 31.92% 5,838 66.16% 12,102 1.42% 259 0.51% 93 18,292

By congressional district

Trump won 8 out of the 14 congressional districts in Michigan.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 57.9% 40.6% Jack Bergman
2nd 55% 43.2% Bill Huizenga
3rd 50.7% 47.4% Justin Amash
Peter Meijer
4th 61.1% 37.2% John Moolenaar
5th 47.1% 51.4% Dan Kildee
6th 51.3% 46.8% Fred Upton
7th 56.7% 41.6% Tim Walberg
8th 49.6% 48.8% Elissa Slotkin
9th 42.7% 55.9% Andy Levin
10th 64.2% 34.4% Paul Mitchell
Lisa McClain
11th 47.1% 51.6% Haley Stevens
12th 34.4% 64.2% Debbie Dingell
13th 20% 78.8% Rashida Tlaib
14th 19.6% 79.5% Brenda Lawrence

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Jeremy W. Peters of The New York Times wrote that "high Detroit turnout" was a crucial factor aiding Biden.[27] African Americans in Detroit were a major demographic contributing to Joe Biden winning that state.[28] Trump received 12,600 votes in Detroit proper, an increase from the previous election's 7,700. In percentage terms, the shift in Detroit was from Clinton 95–3 to Biden 94–5, a decreased margin from 92 points in 2016 to 89 in 2020. Biden saw increases from 2016 in Oakland and Washtenaw counties.[29]

The 2020 election in Oakland County by municipality (certain villages like Holly not shown).
The 2020 election in Wayne County by municipality.

In Oakland County, Biden won 433,982 votes, making up 56.36% of the votes. The municipalities in Oakland County that majority-voted for Biden versus Trump included Bloomfield Township, Farmington Hills, Madison Heights, Novi, Rochester Hills, Southfield and Troy.[30]

The number of unbalanced votes in Wayne County for 2020 was below the same number for 2016.[31] On November 23, 2020, Michigan certified the results 3–0, with Norm Shinkle abstaining.[32]

Analysis

Michigan was generally seen as one of the most critical states of the 2020 election; the state boasts a highly prized 16 electoral votes, and had been part of the blue wall since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992. It was key to Trump's surprise victory in 2016, and the Biden campaign paid heavy attention to the state throughout the campaign, looking to avoid a repeat of Hillary Clinton's collapse in the northern industrial states.[33][34]

Biden would carry the state by about 2.8% points; while Biden ran well behind Barack Obama in his two campaigns, his margin of victory was in-line for a Democratic candidate, only performing slightly worse than John Kerry's 3.4% margin in 2004, and Al Gore's 5.2% margin in 2000, reflecting some of the steady demographic shifts in the state. Many undecided/third-party voters that had been lost by Clinton appeared to return to the Democratic column, giving Biden enough votes to carry the state.[35]

While Michigan returned to the Democratic column with a fairly sizable margin, the state's internal politics shifted rather dramatically. Trump performed strongly with white voters without a college degree, winning this group by 17 points, and this group made up about 51% of Michigan's electorate, cementing the white-working-class shift to the GOP; with men, this was even more convincing, as Trump carried white men without a college degree by 30 points. On the other hand, there was a significant suburban shift towards the Democrats; for example, Ottawa County, a suburban county outside of Grand Rapids, has traditionally been a GOP-stronghold in the state; Biden cut into Trump's margins here, and Trump carried this county with less than 60%.[35] Trump held Macomb County, which famously helped him clinch Michigan in 2016, but carried it by only 8 points, 3 points fewer than in 2016.[36]

Other demographic patterns remained the same. Biden won 93% of African-American voters in the state; consequently, Biden improved from Clinton's performance in Wayne County, home of Detroit.[36] Biden's performance among black voters would carry on in other parts of the state; Biden was able to match Clinton's performance in Genesee County,[37] and flipped back Saginaw County.[38]

Biden performed strongly with Michigan's different religious groups; Biden was able to improve from Clinton in the vote share with Evangelical Michiganders. More importantly, Biden performed strongly with white Catholics, who make up a large portion of Michigan's electorate.[39] Much of the state's sizable Muslim and Arab American voters backed Biden in the election, in which their support was seen as being important for helping Biden secure victory in Michigan.[40][41]

Aftermath

On November 5, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[42] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why", "when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[43]

In Antrim County, human error led to a miscount of an unofficial tally of votes for the presidential candidates. The error was caused by a worker using different kinds of ballots when setting up ballot scanners and result-reporting systems, therefore mismatched results were produced. The errors were spotted and rectified, thus the unofficial tally was changed from a Biden victory in the county to a Trump victory.[44]

Despite pressure from the Trump campaign to hand the decision over the state's presidential electors to the Michigan State Legislature, which would have been an unprecedented maneuver in state history, the statewide results were certified in favor of the Biden/Harris ticket on November 23, with one Republican member of the Michigan Board of State Canvassers abstaining.[45]

See also

Notes
Partisan clients
  1. The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. The American Bridge PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supports Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign
  5. Rust Belt Rising is affiliated with the Democratic Party
  6. The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  7. The Committee to Protect Medicare is a PAC with a history of buying ads arguing against the reelection of Trump
  8. The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  9. Unite the Country PAC has endorsed Biden's presidential campaign
  10. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose head - Gabby Giffords - had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  12. Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  13. Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
  14. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  15. CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  16. Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
  2. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
  3. Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
  4. Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. "Someone else" with 2%
  9. Standard VI response
  10. "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  11. If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  13. Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  16. "Someone else" with 3%
  17. "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 8%
  18. "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
  19. "Someone else" with no voters
  20. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  21. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  22. "Third party" with 5%
  23. Includes "Refused"
  24. "Someone else" with 1%
  25. "Other/third party" with 2%
  26. "Someone else" with 0%
  27. "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  28. "Third party" with 2%
  29. "Other" and "None of these" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  30. Includes Undecided
  31. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
  32. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  33. "Third party candidate" with 5%
  34. "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  35. "Third party candidate" with 4%
  36. "Someone else" with 4%
  37. "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  38. "Other third party" with 2%
  39. "Another candidate" with 0%
  40. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  41. "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  42. "Refused" with 3%; "Third Party" with 2%
  43. "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  44. "Someone else" with 1.2%
  45. "Another candidate" with 1%
  46. If only Trump and Biden were candidates
  47. "Someone else" with 7%; "Refused" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  48. Would not vote with 1%
  49. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  50. "Other/not sure" with 7%
  51. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  52. "Refused" with 3%; "Third party" with 1%
  53. Would not vote with 0%
  54. "Another party candidate" with 1%
  55. "Another third party/write-in" 1%
  56. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  57. "Third party" with 6%
  58. "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  59. "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 2%
  60. "Other" with 1%; "Neither" with 4%
  61. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  62. "Would vote third party" with 5%
  63. "Refused" with 2%
  64. "Another candidate" with 3%; Would not vote with 5%
  65. "other" with 2%
  66. "Refused/no answer" with 4%
  67. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  68. "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
  69. "A different candidate" with 6%
  70. "Third party" with 4%
  71. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  72. "Someone else" with 6%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  73. "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  74. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  75. A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  76. Would not vote with 5%
  77. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  78. Would not vote with 7%
  79. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  80. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
  81. Would not vote with 6%
  82. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  83. A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  84. Would not vote with 4%
  85. "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
  86. A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
  87. Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  88. "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
  89. Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
  90. Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
  91. 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
  92. "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
  93. "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
  94. "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
  95. "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
  96. "Depends on who the Democratic nominee is" with 15%

References
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Further reading
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