2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings
The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2014, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories[lower-alpha 1] were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the second term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 114th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2010 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 2011 as a result of the 2010 elections.
Competitive seats highlighted by party.
Democratic-held seats: Competitive Uncompetitive
Republican-held seats: Competitive Uncompetitive
Democratic-held seats: Competitive Uncompetitive
Republican-held seats: Competitive Uncompetitive
Election ratings
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their names, while incumbents with a caret (^) sought re-election, but were defeated in the primary election. Note that safeness of a district is not necessarily a prediction as to outcome.
Most election ratings use:
- Tossup: no advantage
- Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
- Lean: clear advantage
- Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
- Safe: outcome is nearly certain
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | 2012 | Cook (November 3, 2014)[1] |
Daily Kos Elections (November 4, 2014)[2] |
Rothenberg (October 29, 2014)[3] |
Sabato (October 30, 2014)[4] |
Real Clear Politics (November 2, 2014) |
Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska at-large | R+12 | Don Young (R) | 63.9% R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Young |
| Arizona 1 | R+4 | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | 48.8% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Kirkpatrick |
| Arizona 2 | R+3 | Ron Barber (D) | 50.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | McSally |
| Arizona 9 | R+1 | Kyrsten Sinema (D) | 48.5% D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Sinema |
| Arkansas 2 | R+8 | (Timothy Griffin) (R) | 55.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Hill |
| Arkansas 4 | R+15 | (Tom Cotton) (R) | 59.5% R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Westerman |
| California 3 | D+3 | John Garamendi (D) | 53.7% D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Garamendi |
| California 7 | EVEN | Ami Bera (D) | 51.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Bera |
| California 9 | D+6 | Jerry McNerney (D) | 54.1% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | McNerney |
| California 21 | D+2 | David Valadao (R) | 59.9% R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Valadao |
| California 24 | D+4 | Lois Capps (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Capps |
| California 26 | D+4 | Julia Brownley (D) | 51.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Brownley |
| California 31 | D+5 | (Gary Miller) (R) | 55.2% R | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Aguilar |
| California 36 | R+1 | Raul Ruiz (D) | 51.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Safe D | Lean D | Lean D | Ruiz |
| California 52 | D+2 | Scott Peters (D) | 50.2% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Peters |
| Colorado 6 | D+1 | Mike Coffman (R) | 48.7% R | Lean R | Tossup/Tilt R | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Coffman |
| Connecticut 5 | D+3 | Elizabeth Esty (D) | 51.5% D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Esty |
| Florida 2 | R+6 | Steve Southerland (R) | 52.7% R | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Graham |
| Florida 18 | R+3 | Patrick Murphy (D) | 50.3% D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Murphy |
| Florida 26 | R+1 | Joe Garcia (D) | 53.6% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Curbelo |
| Georgia 12 | R+9 | John Barrow (D) | 53.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Allen |
| Hawaii 1 | D+18 | (Colleen Hanabusa) (D) | 54.6% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Takai |
| Illinois 8 | D+8 | Tammy Duckworth (D) | 54.7% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Duckworth |
| Illinois 10 | D+8 | Brad Schneider (D) | 50.5% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Dold |
| Illinois 11 | D+8 | Bill Foster (D) | 58.1% D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Foster |
| Illinois 12 | EVEN | Bill Enyart (D) | 51.5% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Bost |
| Illinois 13 | EVEN | Rodney L. Davis (R) | 46.6% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Davis |
| Illinois 17 | D+7 | Cheri Bustos (D) | 53.3% D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Bustos |
| Indiana 2 | R+6 | Jackie Walorski (R) | 49.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Walorski |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | (Bruce Braley) (D) | 56.9% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Blum |
| Iowa 2 | D+4 | Dave Loebsack (D) | 55.6% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Loebsack |
| Iowa 3 | EVEN | (Tom Latham) (R) | 52.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Young |
| Iowa 4 | R+5 | Steve King (R) | 53.2% R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | King |
| Kansas 2 | R+8 | Lynn Jenkins (R) | 57.0% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Jenkins |
| Kansas 3 | R+6 | Kevin Yoder (R) | 68.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Yoder |
| Maine 2 | D+2 | (Mike Michaud) (D) | 58.1% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Poliquin |
| Maryland 6 | D+4 | John K. Delaney (D) | 58.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Delaney |
| Massachusetts 6 | D+4 | John F. Tierney^ (D) | 48.3% D | Lean D | Tossup/Tilt D | Tossup/Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Moulton |
| Massachusetts 9 | D+5 | William R. Keating (D) | 58.3% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Keating |
| Michigan 1 | R+5 | Dan Benishek (R) | 48.2% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Benishek |
| Michigan 4 | R+5 | (Dave Camp) (R) | 63.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Moolenaar |
| Michigan 6 | R+1 | Fred Upton (R) | 54.6% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Upton |
| Michigan 7 | R+3 | Tim Walberg (R) | 53.3% R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Walberg |
| Michigan 8 | R+2 | (Mike Rogers) (R) | 58.6% R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Bishop |
| Michigan 11 | R+4 | Kerry Bentivolio (R)[5] | 50.7% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Trott |
| Minnesota 1 | R+1 | Tim Walz (D) | 57.6% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Walz |
| Minnesota 7 | R+6 | Collin Peterson (D) | 60.4% D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Peterson |
| Minnesota 8 | D+1 | Rick Nolan (D) | 54.5% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Nolan |
| Montana at-large | R+7 | (Steve Daines) (R) | 53.2% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Zinke |
| Nebraska 2 | R+4 | Lee Terry (R) | 51.2% R | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt D | Tossup/Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Ashford |
| Nevada 3 | EVEN | Joe Heck (R) | 50.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Heck |
| Nevada 4 | D+4 | Steven Horsford (D) | 50.1% D | Lean D | Tossup/Tilt D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Hardy |
| New Hampshire 1 | R+1 | Carol Shea-Porter (D) | 49.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt D | Lean R | Tossup | Guinta |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+3 | Ann McLane Kuster (D) | 50.2% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Kuster |
| New Jersey 3 | R+1 | (Jon Runyan) (R) | 53.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | MacArthur |
| New Jersey 5 | R+4 | Scott Garrett (R) | 55.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Garrett |
| New York 1 | R+2 | Tim Bishop (D) | 52.2% D | Tossup | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Zeldin |
| New York 4 | D+3 | (Carolyn McCarthy) (D) | 61.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Rice |
| New York 11 | R+2 | Michael Grimm (R) | 52.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Grimm |
| New York 18 | EVEN | Sean Patrick Maloney (D) | 51.7% D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup/Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Maloney |
| New York 19 | D+1 | Chris Gibson (R) | 53.4% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Gibson |
| New York 21 | EVEN | (Bill Owens) (D) | 50.2% D | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Stefanik |
| New York 23 | R+3 | Tom Reed (R) | 52.1% R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Reed |
| New York 24 | D+5 | Dan Maffei (D) | 48.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Katko |
| North Carolina 7 | R+12 | (Mike McIntyre) (D) | 50.1% D | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Rouzer |
| North Dakota at-large | R+10 | Kevin Cramer (R) | 54.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Cramer |
| Ohio 6 | R+8 | Bill Johnson (R) | 53.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Johnson |
| Ohio 14 | R+4 | David Joyce (R) | 54.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Joyce |
| Pennsylvania 6 | R+2 | (Jim Gerlach) (R) | 57.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Costello |
| Texas 23 | R+3 | Pete Gallego (D) | 50.3% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Hurd |
| Utah 4 | R+16 | (Jim Matheson) (D) | 49.3% D | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Love |
| Virginia 10 | R+2 | (Frank Wolf) (R) | 58.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Comstock |
| Washington 1 | D+4 | Suzan DelBene (D) | 53.6% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | DelBene |
| West Virginia 2 | R+11 | (Shelley Moore Capito) (R) | 69.8% R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup/Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Mooney |
| West Virginia 3 | R+14 | Nick Rahall (D) | 53.9% D | Tossup | Tossup/Tilt R | Pure Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Jenkins |
| Wisconsin 6 | R+5 | (Tom Petri) (R) | 62.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Grothman |
| Wisconsin 7 | R+2 | Sean Duffy (R) | 56.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Duffy |
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | 2012 | Cook | Daily Kos Elections | Rothenberg | Sabato | Real Clear Politics | Winner |
Notes
- Not including the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term.
References
- "2014 House Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". House: Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2014.
- "Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2014". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved November 4, 2014.
- "2014 House Ratings (October 24, 2014)". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
- "2014 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. April 10, 2014. Retrieved April 11, 2014.
- Bowman, Bridget (October 2, 2014). "Kerry Bentivolio to Wage Write-In Campaign". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 12, 2014. Retrieved December 1, 2014.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.