2009 JF1

2009 JF1 is a small near-Earth object that should pass within 0.3 AU (45 million km) of Earth in 2022.[5] On 5 February 2022 the 2009 observations were remeasured greatly reducing the odds of an impact. On 6 May 2022 it has a 1-in-140,000 chance of impacting Earth.[2] It is estimated to be 10-meters in diameter which would make it smaller than the Chelyabinsk meteor. It has a very short observation arc of 1.2 days and has not been observed since 2009. On 6 May 2022 it is nominally expected to be 0.2 AU (30 million km) from Earth but has an uncertainty region of ±23 million km (0.15 AU).[5] The nominal Earth approach is 15 May 2022 and would have the asteroid only brightening to apparent magnitude 26.[6][7] With a Palermo scale rating of -4.41,[2] the odds of impact are still 26000 times less than the background hazard level for an asteroid of this size.

Virtual impactor[2]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in)		 JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)		 NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)		 MPC[8]
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)		 Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)		 uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2022-05-061400000.19 AU (28 million km)[5]0.16 AU (24 million km)[7]0.19 AU (28 million km)0.19 AU (28 million km)[9]± 23 million km[5]

2009 JF1
Discovery[1]
Discovered byMount Lemmon Survey
Discovery date4 May 2009
Designations
2009 JF1
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 2022-Jan-21 (JD 2459600.5)
Uncertainty parameter 7
Observation arc1.2 days[2]
Aphelion3.29 AU (Q)
Perihelion0.4953 AU (q)
1.89 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.738 (e)
2.6 years
300°±3° (M)
Inclination6.16° (i)
45.5° (Ω)
2022-Jul-02 ± 3 days
281° (ω)
Earth MOID0.000055 AU (8,200 km)
Jupiter MOID2.1 AU (310,000,000 km)
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~10 m (33 ft)[2]
  • 8–17 meters
27.7[3][4]

    About two months after approaching Earth, it will come to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun), but the time of perihelion passage is only known with an accuracy of ±3 days.[3]

    See also

    References
    1. "MPEC 2009-J26 : 2009 JF1". IAU Minor Planet Center. 5 May 2009. Retrieved 13 October 2021. (K09J01F)
    2. "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2009 JF1". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Retrieved 13 October 2021. (Wayback Machine 2009)
    3. "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2009 JF1)" (last observation: 2009-05-05; arc: 1 day). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Archived from the original on 28 May 2019. Retrieved 13 October 2021.
    4. "2009 JF1 Orbit". Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 13 October 2021.
    5. "Horizons Batch for 2022-05-06 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 13 October 2021. Retrieved 13 October 2021. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = 62906567 km for 2022-May-06.)
    6. "Horizons Batch for 2022-05-10 NOMINAL". JPL Horizons. Archived from the original on 27 December 2021. Retrieved 27 December 2021.
    7. "2009JF1 Ephemerides for 6 May 2022". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Archived from the original on 13 October 2021. Retrieved 13 October 2021.
    8. "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 13 October 2021.
    9. "Find_Orb for 2022-05-06". Project Pluto. Archived from the original on 13 October 2021. Retrieved 13 October 2021.
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