2004 United States presidential election in Montana

The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2004 United States presidential election in Montana

November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 266,063 173,710
Percentage 59.07% 38.56%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state typically votes for Democrats at the state level, having a Democratic senator: Max Baucus, as well as a very popular governor Brian Schweitzer. Montana has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1964 except in 1992, when the state slightly preferred Democrat Bill Clinton to Republican incumbent George H. W. Bush.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final 3 polling average showed him leading 55% to 35%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $385,635.[3] Kerry raised $145,679.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis

Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won five counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Montana[7]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 266,063 59.07% 3
Democratic John Kerry 173,710 38.56% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 6,168 1.37% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 1,764 0.39% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,733 0.38% 0
Green David Cobb 996 0.22% 0
Write Ins. - 11 0.00% 0
Totals 450,445 100.00% 6
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

CountyBush #Bush %Kerry #Kerry %Other #Other %Total #
Beaverhead3,06772.30%1,10326.00%721.70%4,242
Big Horn2,02847.04%2,21551.38%681.58%4,311
Blaine1,42451.45%1,30046.97%441.59%2,768
Broadwater1,77875.56%53322.65%421.78%2,353
Carbon3,34262.81%1,84734.71%1322.48%5,321
Carter62387.87%7610.72%101.41%709
Cascade19,02856.87%13,70140.95%7302.18%33,459
Chouteau1,92165.59%94632.30%622.12%2,929
Custer3,29765.31%1,63032.29%1212.40%5,048
Daniels76468.28%32629.13%292.59%1,119
Dawson2,88464.32%1,49433.32%1062.36%4,484
Deer Lodge1,72537.97%2,70059.43%1182.60%4,543
Fallon1,17879.01%28919.38%241.61%1,491
Fergus4,42572.22%1,58225.82%1201.96%6,127
Flathead26,01967.27%11,58729.96%1,0722.77%38,678
Gallatin22,39256.20%16,40541.18%1,0442.62%39,841
Garfield59090.08%527.94%131.98%655
Glacier1,82840.07%2,64157.89%932.04%4,562
Golden Valley39675.86%11922.80%71.34%522
Granite1,14471.28%40425.17%573.55%1,605
Hill County3,50552.65%2,99745.02%1552.33%6,657
Jefferson3,84465.51%1,88132.06%1432.44%5,868
Judith Basin94473.41%32225.04%201.56%1,286
Lake7,24557.61%4,96039.44%3712.95%12,576
Lewis & Clark16,49455.27%12,71742.61%6312.11%29,842
Liberty73471.06%28127.20%181.74%1,033
Lincoln5,88969.72%2,32027.47%2382.82%8,447
Madison2,86872.94%98324.99%822.08%3,933
McCone79169.57%32028.14%262.29%1,137
Meagher69871.74%24725.39%282.88%973
Mineral1,24267.61%54229.50%532.89%1,837
Missoula23,98945.74%26,98351.44%1,4802.82%52,452
Musselshell1,66374.01%53823.94%462.05%2,247
Park4,77158.06%3,19938.93%2473.01%8,217
Petroleum22878.08%5518.84%93.08%292
Phillips1,67777.28%45621.01%371.71%2,170
Pondera1,85364.79%95633.43%511.78%2,860
Powder River85683.27%15414.98%181.75%1,028
Powell1,99370.51%76126.89%762.69%2,830
Prairie54674.18%18124.59%91.22%736
Ravalli13,27966.84%6,14430.93%4432.23%19,866
Richland3,11072.19%1,12026.00%781.81%4,308
Roosevelt1,76043.72%2,19554.52%711.76%4,026
Rosebud1,98255.29%1,52042.40%832.32%3,585
Sanders3,46167.16%1,50229.15%1903.69%5,153
Sheridan1,15956.87%84641.51%331.62%2,038
Silver Bow6,38139.67%9,30757.86%3962.46%16,084
Stillwater3,09073.34%1,02524.33%982.33%4,213
Sweet Grass1,50976.10%44522.44%291.46%1,983
Teton2,23266.45%1,04731.17%802.38%3,359
Toole1,58368.50%69029.86%381.64%2,311
Treasure34872.20%12125.10%132.70%482
Valley2,47661.62%1,43135.61%1112.76%4,018
Wheatland70671.11%25025.54%232.35%979
Wibaux40772.68%14425.71%91.61%560
Yellowstone40,90361.70%24,12036.39%1,2661.91%66,289

[8]

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Bush Kerry Representative
At-large 59.1% 38.6% Denny Rehberg

Electors

Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged for Bush/Cheney.[9]

  1. Jack Galt
  2. Thelma Baker
  3. John Brenden

See also

References

  1. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 17 February 2022.
  2. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 17 February 2022.
  3. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 17 February 2022.
  4. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2022-02-16.
  5. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2022-02-16.
  6. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Montana". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 17 February 2022.
  7. https://sosmt.gov/elections/archives/#2000s
  8. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2006-04-25. Retrieved 2009-10-10.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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