2004 United States presidential election in Mississippi
The 2004 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on November 2, 2004 as part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. It was the first presidential election since the 2000 United States census where Mississippi lost an electoral vote, reducing its elector count from seven to six. Mississippi had the fewest electoral votes since 1848.[1]
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 County Results
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| Elections in Mississippi |
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Mississippi was won by incumbent President George W. Bush of the Republican Party with a 19.69% margin of victory over Democratic nominee John Kerry. Prior to the election, Mississippi was considered a state Bush would win with ease, or a red state. Mississippi has not voted for a Democrat since 1976, when Jimmy Carter carried the state.
As of 2021, this is the last election in which Mississippi voted to the right of Arkansas, Tennessee, or Louisiana.
Campaign
Predictions
12 news organizations made state-by-state predictions of the election. These organizations published their predictions just prior to election day:[2]
| News Organization | Prediction |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Leans Republican |
| Associated Press | Leans Bush |
| CNN | Bush |
| Cook Political Report | Leans Republican |
| Newsweek | Solid Bush |
| New York Times | Solid Bush |
| Rasmussen Reports | Bush |
| Research 2000 | Solid Bush |
| Washington Post | Bush |
| Washington Times | Solid Bush |
| Zogby International | Bush |
| Washington Dispatch | Bush |
Polling
Bush won pre-election polling by a double-digit margin.[3]
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign spent or visited this state during the fall campaign.[6]
Analysis
The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Mississippi was fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter in 1976. Due to its reliably conservative voting pattern, neither of the two major party candidates campaigned in the state.
Mississippi is one of the most racially polarized states in presidential elections. Black Mississippians almost uniformly vote Democratic, while white Mississippians vote Republican nearly as consistently. In 2004, 14% of white Mississippians voted for John Kerry and 10% of African Americans voted for Bush.[7] Kerry's main support lay in the western counties on the Delta and next to the Mississippi River. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Pike County, Copiah County, Oktibbeha County, and Yazoo County voted for the Republican candidate.
Results
| 2004 United States presidential election in Mississippi[8] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican Party | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 684,981 | 59.44% | 6 | |
| Democratic Party | John Kerry | 458,094 | 39.75% | 0 | |
| Reform Party | Ralph Nader | 3,177 | 0.28% | 0 | |
| Libertarian Party | Michael Badnarik | 1,793 | 0.16% | 0 | |
| Constitution Party | Michael Peroutka | 1,759 | 0.15% | 0 | |
| Independent (politician) | Roger Calero | 1,272 | 0.11% | 0 | |
| Green Party | David Cobb | 1,073 | 0.09% | 0 | |
| Independent (politician) | Write Ins | 216 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Totals | - | 100.00% | 6 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age population) | 54.4% | ||||
Results breakdown
By county
Most Mississippi counties voted for Bush.[9]
| County | Kerry # | Kerry % | Bush # | Bush % | Other # | Other % | Total # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams | 7,844 | 54.56% | 6,487 | 45.12% | 45 | 0.31% | 14,376 |
| Alcorn | 5,364 | 38.02% | 8,605 | 60.99% | 141 | 1.00% | 14,110 |
| Amite | 2,973 | 41.77% | 4,106 | 57.69% | 38 | 0.53% | 7,117 |
| Attala | 3,014 | 37.94% | 4,882 | 61.45% | 49 | 0.62% | 7,945 |
| Benton | 2,234 | 52.83% | 1,962 | 46.39% | 33 | 0.78% | 4,229 |
| Bolivar | 8,560 | 63.75% | 4,722 | 35.17% | 145 | 1.08% | 13,427 |
| Calhoun | 2,211 | 34.92% | 4,096 | 64.70% | 24 | 0.38% | 6,331 |
| Carroll | 1,897 | 34.01% | 3,652 | 65.48% | 28 | 0.50% | 5,577 |
| Chickasaw | 3,991 | 48.75% | 4,123 | 50.37% | 72 | 0.88% | 8,186 |
| Choctaw | 1,290 | 33.01% | 2,598 | 66.48% | 20 | 0.51% | 3,908 |
| Claiborne | 4,338 | 81.53% | 941 | 17.68% | 42 | 0.79% | 5,321 |
| Clarke | 2,377 | 31.96% | 5,027 | 67.59% | 34 | 0.46% | 7,438 |
| Clay | 4,732 | 51.94% | 4,333 | 47.56% | 46 | 0.50% | 9,111 |
| Coahoma | 6,741 | 64.10% | 3,643 | 34.64% | 132 | 1.26% | 10,516 |
| Copiah | 4,902 | 43.49% | 6,316 | 56.03% | 54 | 0.48% | 11,272 |
| Covington | 3,135 | 38.26% | 5,010 | 61.14% | 49 | 0.60% | 8,194 |
| DeSoto | 13,247 | 27.05% | 35,437 | 72.35% | 297 | 0.61% | 48,981 |
| Forrest | 9,781 | 37.71% | 15,966 | 61.56% | 189 | 0.73% | 25,936 |
| Franklin | 1,566 | 35.01% | 2,883 | 64.45% | 24 | 0.54% | 4,473 |
| George | 1,715 | 21.57% | 6,182 | 77.76% | 53 | 0.67% | 7,950 |
| Greene | 1,419 | 26.90% | 3,827 | 72.55% | 29 | 0.55% | 5,275 |
| Grenada | 4,154 | 41.33% | 5,844 | 58.15% | 52 | 0.52% | 10,050 |
| Hancock | 5,023 | 28.62% | 12,332 | 70.27% | 195 | 1.11% | 17,550 |
| Harrison | 22,555 | 36.49% | 38,781 | 62.74% | 474 | 0.77% | 61,810 |
| Hinds | 51,370 | 59.55% | 34,269 | 39.73% | 626 | 0.73% | 86,265 |
| Holmes | 6,170 | 75.87% | 1,925 | 23.67% | 37 | 0.45% | 8,132 |
| Humphreys | 2,975 | 63.96% | 1,626 | 34.96% | 50 | 1.08% | 4,651 |
| Issaquena | 510 | 53.01% | 437 | 45.43% | 15 | 1.56% | 962 |
| Itawamba | 2,771 | 28.88% | 6,751 | 70.35% | 74 | 0.77% | 9,596 |
| Jackson | 15,046 | 30.45% | 34,035 | 68.88% | 333 | 0.67% | 49,414 |
| Jasper | 4,081 | 51.49% | 3,808 | 48.04% | 37 | 0.47% | 7,926 |
| Jefferson Davis | 2,955 | 51.30% | 2,667 | 46.30% | 138 | 2.40% | 5,760 |
| Jefferson | 2,798 | 81.34% | 627 | 18.23% | 15 | 0.44% | 3,440 |
| Jones | 7,344 | 27.69% | 19,032 | 71.77% | 142 | 0.54% | 26,518 |
| Kemper | 2,454 | 53.48% | 2,107 | 45.91% | 28 | 0.61% | 4,589 |
| Lafayette | 6,218 | 40.41% | 9,004 | 58.51% | 166 | 1.08% | 15,388 |
| Lamar | 3,876 | 19.10% | 16,288 | 80.26% | 130 | 0.64% | 20,294 |
| Lauderdale | 10,026 | 33.92% | 19,395 | 65.62% | 134 | 0.45% | 29,555 |
| Lawrence | 2,355 | 36.11% | 4,119 | 63.16% | 48 | 0.74% | 6,522 |
| Leake | 3,212 | 39.10% | 4,962 | 60.41% | 40 | 0.49% | 8,214 |
| Lee | 9,895 | 32.97% | 19,878 | 66.24% | 237 | 0.79% | 30,010 |
| Leflore | 7,240 | 61.97% | 4,427 | 37.89% | 17 | 0.15% | 11,684 |
| Lincoln | 4,372 | 30.52% | 9,889 | 69.03% | 65 | 0.45% | 14,326 |
| Lowndes | 7,904 | 38.10% | 12,642 | 60.93% | 202 | 0.97% | 20,748 |
| Madison | 12,942 | 34.84% | 24,015 | 64.65% | 191 | 0.51% | 37,148 |
| Marion | 3,828 | 32.63% | 7,845 | 66.87% | 59 | 0.50% | 11,732 |
| Marshall | 7,979 | 58.78% | 5,520 | 40.67% | 75 | 0.55% | 13,574 |
| Monroe | 6,149 | 39.78% | 9,223 | 59.66% | 87 | 0.56% | 15,459 |
| Montgomery | 2,422 | 44.89% | 2,953 | 54.73% | 21 | 0.39% | 5,396 |
| Neshoba | 2,515 | 24.82% | 7,581 | 74.81% | 37 | 0.37% | 10,133 |
| Newton | 2,274 | 26.84% | 6,156 | 72.66% | 42 | 0.50% | 8,472 |
| Noxubee | 4,293 | 71.31% | 1,698 | 28.21% | 29 | 0.48% | 6,020 |
| Oktibbeha | 4,178 | 42.89% | 5,485 | 56.30% | 79 | 0.81% | 9,742 |
| Panola | 6,540 | 49.06% | 6,734 | 50.52% | 56 | 0.42% | 13,330 |
| Pearl River | 4,392 | 22.97% | 14,612 | 76.42% | 117 | 0.61% | 19,121 |
| Perry | 1,259 | 25.13% | 3,729 | 74.43% | 22 | 0.44% | 5,010 |
| Pike | 7,578 | 46.73% | 8,547 | 52.71% | 90 | 0.56% | 16,215 |
| Pontotoc | 2,591 | 23.42% | 8,375 | 75.72% | 95 | 0.86% | 11,061 |
| Prentiss | 3,327 | 33.50% | 6,538 | 65.83% | 40 | 0.67% | 9,932 |
| Quitman | 1,925 | 59.84% | 1,270 | 39.48% | 22 | 0.68% | 3,217 |
| Rankin | 10,738 | 20.12% | 41,971 | 78.65% | 656 | 1.23% | 53,365 |
| Scott | 3,780 | 37.15% | 6,364 | 62.55% | 31 | 0.30% | 10,175 |
| Sharkey | 1,553 | 50.41% | 1,115 | 36.19% | 413 | 13.40% | 3,081 |
| Simpson | 3,262 | 32.37% | 6,810 | 67.58% | 5 | 0.05% | 10,077 |
| Smith | 1,493 | 21.01% | 5,566 | 78.33% | 47 | 0.66% | 7,106 |
| Stone | 1,502 | 26.68% | 4,072 | 72.33% | 56 | 0.99% | 5,630 |
| Sunflower | 6,057 | 62.68% | 3,492 | 36.14% | 114 | 1.18% | 9,663 |
| Tallahatchie | 3,377 | 54.81% | 2,725 | 44.23% | 59 | 0.96% | 6,161 |
| Tate | 4,279 | 38.90% | 6,663 | 60.57% | 59 | 0.54% | 11,001 |
| Tippah | 2,983 | 32.73% | 6,048 | 66.37% | 82 | 0.90% | 9,113 |
| Tishomingo | 2,775 | 33.99% | 5,288 | 64.76% | 102 | 1.25% | 8,165 |
| Tunica | 1,934 | 68.70% | 845 | 30.02% | 36 | 1.28% | 2,815 |
| Union | 2,710 | 26.57% | 7,422 | 72.77% | 67 | 0.66% | 10,199 |
| Walthall | 2,550 | 39.48% | 3,873 | 59.96% | 36 | 0.56% | 6,459 |
| Warren | 8,244 | 40.98% | 11,773 | 58.52% | 100 | 0.50% | 20,117 |
| Washington | 10,562 | 59.09% | 7,031 | 39.33% | 282 | 1.58% | 17,875 |
| Wayne | 3,193 | 36.30% | 5,562 | 63.24% | 40 | 0.45% | 8,795 |
| Webster | 1,318 | 26.35% | 3,668 | 73.33% | 16 | 0.32% | 5,002 |
| Wilkinson | 2,794 | 63.67% | 1,563 | 35.62% | 31 | 0.71% | 4,388 |
| Winston | 3,978 | 42.25% | 5,386 | 57.21% | 51 | 0.54% | 9,415 |
| Yalobusha | 2,656 | 44.48% | 3,278 | 54.90% | 37 | 0.62% | 5,971 |
| Yazoo | 4,798 | 44.87% | 5,595 | 52.32% | 301 | 2.81% | 10,694 |
By congressional district
Bush won 3 out of Mississippi's 4 congressional districts.
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 62% | 37% | Roger Wicker |
| 2nd | 40% | 57% | Bennie G. Thompson |
| 3rd | 65% | 34% | Chip Pickering |
| 4th | 68% | 31% | Gene Taylor |
Electors
Mississippi was assigned 6 electors to cast votes to the Electoral college. Given that Mississippi voted for Bush, all electors were pledged to cast their ballots for Bush. The electors were:[10]
- Kelly Segars
- John Phillips
- Wayne Parker
- Jimmy Creekmore
- Victor Mavar
- Billy Mounger
References
- "Mississippi Presidential Election Voting History". www.270towin.com. Retrieved 2019-10-19.
- http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
- http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=28
- "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
- "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
- "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
- "CNN Election 2004". CNN. Retrieved 2009-04-06.
- "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Mississippi".
- "Washington Post". Archived from the original on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2017-10-26.
- http://secure.sos.state.ms.us/ed_pubs/PressReleases/Articles/ElectoralCollegeMeets.asp
