Next Portuguese legislative election

The Next Portuguese legislative election will take place on or before 11 October 2026 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.

Next Portuguese legislative election

On or before 11 October 2026

230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader António Costa TBD André Ventura
Party PS PSD CH
Leader since 28 September 2014 28 May 2022 9 April 2019
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 120 seats, 41.4% 77 seats, 29.1% 12 seats, 7.2%
Seats needed 0 39 104

 
Leader João Cotrim de Figueiredo Jerónimo de Sousa Catarina Martins
Party IL PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since 8 December 2019 27 November 2004 30 November 2014
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon Porto
Last election 8 seats, 4.9% 6 seats, 4.3%[lower-alpha 1] 5 seats, 4.4%
Seats needed 108 110 111

 
Leader Inês Sousa Real Collective leadership[lower-alpha 2]
Party PAN LIVRE
Leader since 6 June 2021 11 August 2019
Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon
Last election 1 seat, 1.6% 1 seat, 1.3%[lower-alpha 3]
Seats needed 115 115

Incumbent Prime Minister

António Costa
PS



Background

Politics of Portugal

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by their own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government.

Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[1] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 11 October 2026.[2]

CDS – People's Party

In the 2022 elections, the CDS–People's Party was wiped out from Parliament for the first time in 47 years of democracy.[3] CDS leader Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos resigned on election night and announced that a leadership ballot would be held.[4] On 11 February, it was announced that a new leader would be elected in a party congress on 2 and 3 April 2022 held in Guimarães.[5] MEP Nuno Melo, former MP Nuno Correia da Silva, 2016 leadership candidate Miguel Mattos Chaves and Bruno Filipe Costa announced they would contest the ballot.[6][7][8][9] During the congress, Bruno Filipe Costa and Nuno Correia da Silva dropped out from the race.[10] Nuno Melo was easily elected as leader with more than 73% of the votes. The results were the following:

Ballot: 2 April 2022
Candidate Votes %
Nuno Melo 854 77.5
Miguel Mattos Chaves 104 9.4
Others[lower-alpha 4] 144 13.1
Turnout 1,102
Source: Results

Social Democratic Party

After the Social Democratic Party's (PSD) defeat in the 2022 legislative election, Rui Rio announced he would not run again for the PSD leadership and would call a snap leadership ballot in order to elect a new leader.[11] The ballot is set to be held on 28 May 2022.[12] Luís Montenegro and Jorge Moreira da Silva have already announced their bids for the leadership.[13][14]

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[15]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[16] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[17]

The distribution of MPs by electoral district in the 2022 general election was the following:[18]

DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon48
Porto40
Braga19
Setúbal18
Aveiro16
Leiria10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém9
Viseu8
Madeira and Viana do Castelo6
Azores and Vila Real5
Castelo Branco4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.

Name Ideology Political position Leader 2022 result
Votes (%) Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista
Social democracy Centre-left António Costa 41.4%
120 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata
Liberal conservatism Centre-right TBD 29.1%
77 / 230
CH Enough!
Chega!
National conservatism
Right-wing populism
Right-wing
to far-right
André Ventura 7.2%
12 / 230
IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal
Classical liberalism
Centre-right
to right-wing
João Cotrim de Figueiredo 4.9%
8 / 230
PCP[lower-alpha 1] Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português
Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Left-wing
to far-left
Jerónimo de Sousa 4.3%
6 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda
Democratic socialism
Left-wing populism
Left-wing
to far-left
Catarina Martins 4.4%
5 / 230
PAN People Animals Nature
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
Animal welfare
Environmentalism
Centre-left Inês Sousa Real 1.6%
1 / 230
L FREE
LIVRE
Eco-socialism
Pro-Europeanism
Centre-left
to left-wing
Collective leadership 1.3%
1 / 230

Opinion polling

See also

Notes

  1. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2022 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 4.3% of the vote and elected 6 MPs to parliament.
  2. Rui Tavares (pictured), running for Lisbon, was the party's main candidate in the 2022 campaign.
  3. LIVRE has no formal single leader; Rui Tavares, first candidate for Lisbon and the party's only elected MP, pictured.
  4. CDS members that presented party motions, but that were not running for the party's leadership.

References

  1. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 October 2014. Retrieved 7 October 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic
  3. "Histórico: CDS fora do Parlamento", CNN Portugal, 31 January 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  4. "Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos demite-se de presidente do CDS-PP", Diário de Notícias, 31 January 2022. Retrieved February 2022.
  5. "Conselho Nacional do CDS-PP aprova antecipação do congresso para 2 e 3 de abril", CNN Portugal, 11 February 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  6. "“O CDS faz falta a Portugal”, Nuno Melo oficializa candidatura à presidência do partidol", CNN Portugal, 19 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
  7. "Nuno Correia da Silva é candidato à liderança do CDS-PP". www.jn.pt (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2022-03-26.
  8. "CDS-PP. Miguel Mattos Chaves anuncia candidatura à liderança", CNN Portugal, 19 February 2022. Retrieved 20 February 2022.
  9. "Candidato ao CDS Bruno Filipe Costa inspira-se nos conservadores britânicos ", Público, 1 April 2022. Retrieved 2 April 2022.
  10. "Congresso CDS-PP. Miguel Mattos Chaves é o único adversário de Nuno Melo ", RTP, 3 April 2022. Retrieved 3 April 2022.
  11. "Rui Rio confirma que não se vai recandidatar à liderança do PSD", Diário de Notícias, 3 February 2022. Retrieved 12 February 2022.
  12. "Sucessor de Rio escolhido a 28 de maio. Ribau Esteves e Pedro Rodrigues marcam posição". Expresso (in European Portuguese). 2022-03-15. Retrieved 2022-03-14.
  13. "Luís Montenegro vai ser candidato à liderança do PSD". Público. 29 March 2022. Retrieved 29 March 2022.
  14. Eco (1 April 2022). "Jorge Moreira da Silva candidata-se à liderança do PSD". Retrieved 1 April 2022.
  15. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 29 October 2019.
  16. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 2008-05-14. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  17. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  18. "Mapa Oficial n.º 1-C/2021" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Diário da República n.º 235/2021, 1.º Suplemento, Série I de 6 de Dezembro de 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-02-13. Retrieved 6 December 2021.
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