2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Incumbent one-term Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema was elected in 2018 with 50% of the vote.
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| Elections in Arizona |
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Democratic primary
Sinema is considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to parts of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling shows Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins. United States Representative Ruben Gallego has been viewed by many to be the frontrunner to primary Sinema.[1] On January 22, 2022 the Arizona Democratic Party censured Sinema for voting against the filibuster reform.
Publicly expressed interest
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (2015–present)[2][3][4][5]
Potential
- Kate Gallego, mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[6]
- Kathy Hoffman, Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction (2019–present)[4]
- Martin Quezada, outgoing state senator (2015–2023)[3]
- Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)[6][4]
- Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)[3]
- Greg Stanton, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[6][4]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
| – | – | – | 66% | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
| – | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
| – | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
| Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 1] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
| 60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
| – | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
| – | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
| – | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Republican primary
Arizona Governor Doug Ducey is considered a potential candidate, however he would likely face a hotly contested primary due to former President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of him for refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 Presidential election. Andy Biggs, a U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th district, is a favorite of supporters of Trump.[7]
Potential
- Doug Ducey, outgoing Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[8]
- Andy Biggs, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[7]
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Primary Sinema
References
- "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024".
- Greenwood, Max (October 7, 2021). "Ruben Gallego is left's favorite to take on Sinema". The Hill. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
- Seitz-Wald, Alex; Kapur, Sahil (September 30, 2021). "Could Sen. Kyrsten Sinema face a primary? These progressives are trying to make it happen". NBC News. Retrieved October 6, 2021.
- Manu Raju and Alex Rogers. "Liberal backlash against Sinema grows on Capitol Hill as potential Arizona challenger emerges". CNN. Retrieved October 21, 2021.
- Raju, Manu (January 20, 2022). "Arizona Democrat says some senators urging him to challenge Sinema with party at a "braking point"". CNN. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
- "Progressive Group's Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble for Kyrsten Sinema". October 14, 2021.
- "Trump says he will 'never' endorse Republican Doug Ducey if the Arizona governor jumps into the state's 2022 Senate race". Business Insider.
- Flynn, Daniel. "Confounding Kyrsten: Sinema's Style and Substance". The American Spectator.