2023 New South Wales state election

The 2023 New South Wales state election will be held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

2023 New South Wales state election
25 March 2023
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Dominic Perrottet Chris Minns
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 5 October 2021 4 June 2021
Leader's seat Epping Kogarah
Last election 48 seats 36 seats
Current seats 45 seats 37 seats
Seats needed 2 10
 
SFF
Leader Collective leadership Robert Borsak
Party Greens Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Leader's seat MLC
Last election 3 seats 3 seats
Current seats 3 seats 2 seats
Seats needed 44 45
Incumbent Premier

Dominic Perrottet
Liberal


The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, is seeking to win a fourth successive four-year term in office. They will be challenged by the Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents will also contest the election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential voting in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.

Background

Previous election
See also: 2019 New South Wales state election and Post-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.

The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.

The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.

Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.

Change of premiership, resignations and minority government

Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.[1] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier in the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.[2]

On 1 October 2021, Berejiklian resigned as Premier following an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation being launched into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her personal relationship with the former member for Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire.[3] At a subsequent Liberal party-room meeting, New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[4]

The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.[5] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.[6][7] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.[8] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.[9] In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state’s constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.[10] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.[11]

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in March,[12] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Redistribution

The 2015 and 2019 elections were conducted using boundaries set in 2013. The state constitution requires the Electoral Commission to review electoral district boundaries after every two elections, to ensure that the number of voters in each district is within 10 per cent of the "quotient" – the number of voters divided by the number of Legislative Assembly seats. In 2020, the Commission began work on determining new boundaries for the 2023 election, a process commonly known as "redistribution". The projected population quotient in 2023 was 59,244, meaning that each district needed to have between 53,319 and 65,168 enrolled electors.[13]

In November 2020, the proposed redistribution names and boundaries was released to the public for submission. All proposed abolished, created or renamed districts are within Sydney. In August 2021, the final determinations were gazetted.[14]

The Labor-held district of Lakemba will be abolished and largely replaced by the adjacent Bankstown. A new district of Leppington in south-west Sydney will be created from Camden and Macquarie Fields.[14]

A number of Liberal-held districts will be renamed, to reflect the population centre in the districts’ new boundaries:[14]

The Liberal-held Heathcote will take in parts of the Illawarra from the Labor-held Keira and become a notionally marginal Labor seat.[15]

Current seat 2019 election New seat 2021 redistribution
Party Member Margin Party Member Margin*
Baulkham Hills Liberal David Elliott 18.68 Kellyville Liberal Notional 23.1
Heathcote Liberal Lee Evans 4.96 Heathcote Labor Notional 1.7
Ku-ring-gai Liberal Alister Henskens 20.52 Wahroonga Liberal Notional 19.0
Lakemba Labor Jihad Dib 22.42 Abolished
New seat Leppington Labor Notional 1.5
Mulgoa Liberal Tanya Davies 10.13 Badgerys Creek Liberal Notional 9.7
Seven Hills Liberal Mark Taylor 6.36 Winston Hills Liberal Notional 5.7
*These margins are notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2021 redistribution. As such, it may vary from the 2019 election results.

Registered parties
Main article: List of political parties in Australia

17 parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).[16]

Electoral pendulum

This is a pre-2023 electoral pendulum, based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green.[17] The major parties' margins do not include third parties.

Liberal/National seats (47)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB 0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell[lower-alpha 1] NAT 0.5%[lower-alpha 2]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB 3.1%
Willoughby Tim James LIB 3.3%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 5.0%
Monaro Nichole Overall NAT 5.2%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB 5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 6.0%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 6.5%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB 7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB 9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT 10.8%
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB 11.3%
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB 12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB 13.6%
Wollondilly Nathaniel Smith LIB 14.2%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 14.4%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT 14.5%
Manly James Griffin LIB 14.6%
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 14.7%
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT 15.4%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB 15.9%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB 16.6%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 16.9%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB 17.8%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 17.9%
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT 18.1%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB 19.0%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 19.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT 20.1%
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB 20.6%
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB 21.9%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB 22.4%
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB 22.4%
Kellyville David Elliott LIB 23.1%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB 24.8%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT 26.6%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 28.0%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 33.2%
Labor seats (37)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 0.1%
Leppington new seat ALP 1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB 1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP 2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP 2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 3.0%
Bega Michael Holland ALP 5.1%
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li ALP 5.2%
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP 7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 8.3%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 8.6%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 9.4%
Safe
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 10.0%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 10.6%
Wyong David Harris ALP 12.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 13.1%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 13.6%
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP 13.7%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 14.7%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 14.9%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP 15.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 15.3%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 16.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP 16.7%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP 16.8%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 17.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 17.5%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 18.2%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 18.4%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 18.5%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP 19.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 19.7%
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP 20.5%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 21.9%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 22.9%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 25.8%
Crossbench seats (9)
Murray Helen Dalton SFF 2.4% vs NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 4.9% vs NAT
Barwon Roy Butler SFF 6.6% vs NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 10.0% vs ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 11.4% vs ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 11.8% vs LIB
Orange Philip Donato SFF 15.2% vs NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 15.5% vs NAT
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 23.2% vs ALP

Polling

Voting intention

Polling that is conducted under the Newspoll brand and published in The Australian is via random online selection by polling firm YouGov. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

Primary vote
Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN SFF ONP OTH UND L/NP ALP
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[18][lower-alpha 3] 37%* 34% 8% 2% – 19% – N/A
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[19][lower-alpha 4] 41%* 31% 10% 2% – 16% – N/A
5 October 2021 Dominic Perrottet succeeds Gladys Berejiklian as Liberal leader and Premier
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[20][lower-alpha 5] 41%* 30% 11% 2% – 16% – N/A
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[21][lower-alpha 6] 43%* 28% 12% 1% – 16% – N/A
4 June 2021 Chris Minns succeeds Jodi McKay as Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[22][lower-alpha 7] 44%* 28% 12% 4% – 12% – N/A
March 2021 Redbridge[23][24][25] 37.0% 3.1% 23.9% 6.7% 0.8% 4.3% 5.3% 18.9% 59% 41%[26]
14 Oct 2020 Newspoll 37%* 37% 11% – 9% 6% – N/A
29 June 2019 Jodi McKay succeeds Michael Daley becomes Labor leader and Leader of the Opposition
23 March 2019 election 32.0% 9.6% 33.3% 9.6% 3.5% 1.1% 11.0% – 52.0% 48.0%
22 March 2019 Newspoll 41%* 35% 10% – – 14% – 51% 49%[lower-alpha 8]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[27]
  1. Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  2. While the post-2019 margin is 2.5%, the results of the 2021 Upper Hunter state by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the National Party of Australia – NSW.
  3. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  4. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  5. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  6. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  7. Resolve Strategic does not calculate TPP vote.
  8. Preference allocation based on previous election.

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Perrottet Minns
Perrottet Minns Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
20 February 2022 Resolve Strategic[18] 29% 32% not asked not asked
25 November 2021 Resolve Strategic[19] 34% 23% not asked not asked
20–24 October 2021 Essential[28] not asked 47% 28% not asked
5 October 2021 Perrottet replaces Berejiklian as Premier Berejiklian Minns Berejiklian Minns
23 September 2021 Resolve Strategic[20] 48% 21% not asked not asked
15–18 Sept 2021 Newspoll[29] not asked 56% 40% not asked
28 July 2021 Utting Research[30] not asked 56% 33% not asked
18 July 2021 Resolve Strategic[21] 55% 16% not asked not asked
4 June 2021 Minns replaces McKay as Opposition Leader Berejiklian McKay Berejiklian McKay
16 May 2021 Resolve Strategic[22] 57% 17% 50% 17% 13% 21%
11–16 November 2020 Essential[31] not asked 75% 17% not asked
28 Oct–2 Nov 2020 Essential[32] not asked 68% 21% not asked
21–23 October 2020 Ipsos[33][34] 58% 19% 64% 16% 22% 25%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[35] not asked 67% 22% not asked
16–17 October 2020 YouGov[36] not asked 68% 26% not asked
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[37] not asked 64% 30% not asked
24–28 June 2020 Newspoll[38] not asked 68% 26% not asked
21–26 April 2020 Newspoll[39] not asked 69% 23% not asked
29 June 2019 McKay replaces Daley as Opposition Leader Berejiklian Daley Berejiklian Daley
23 March 2019 election – – – – – –
22 March 2019 Newspoll 43% 35% 43% 42% 32% 49%
19 March 2019 YouGov–Galaxy[40] 38% 36% not asked
10 March 2019 Newspoll[41] 41% 34% 44% 38% 37% 38%
10 March 2019 UComms–ReachTEL[42][43] 46.7% 53.3% not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[27]

References

  1. Stuart, Riley; Mayers, Lily (10 September 2020). "Koala bill causes NSW Government crisis as Gladys Berejiklian warns John Barilaro Nationals ministers will be booted from cabinet". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. No. ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  2. Alexandra Smith (11 September 2020). "NSW Nationals back down after Berejiklian's ultimatum". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  3. Nguyen, Kevin (1 October 2021). "Live: 'Couldn't come at a worse time': Premier's bombshell amid 'darkest days in state's history'". ABC News. Retrieved 1 October 2021.
  4. "Dominic Perrottet sworn in as the youngest ever NSW premier - everything you need to know". 7NEWS. 5 October 2021. Retrieved 7 October 2021.
  5. Lucy Cormack (7 July 2021). "Gareth Ward: NSW prosecutor to consider sexual violence claims against Kiama MP". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  6. Cormack, Lucy (22 March 2022). "Gareth Ward charged over historical allegations of sexual assault". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
  7. Raper, Ashleigh (24 March 2022). "NSW MP Gareth Ward suspended from parliament over historic sexual abuse charges". ABC News (Australia). Retrieved 24 March 2022.
  8. "NSW MP John Sidoti joins crossbench after ICAC announces inquiry into property dealings". www.abc.net.au. 2 March 2021. Retrieved 3 March 2021.
  9. "VIDEO: NSW government to be plunged further into minority". ABC News. 13 February 2022.
  10. Alexandra Smith (31 March 2022). "'Tipping point': NSW Coalition defeated on floor of Parliament". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  11. Tasmin Rose (22 April 2022). "NSW MP Alex Greenwich threatens to withdraw supply from Perrottet government over 'attacks' on trans kids". The Guardian.
  12. "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  13. "Report of the Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel on the draft determination of the names and boundaries of electoral districts of New South Wales" (PDF). New South Wales Electoral Commission. November 2020. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  14. "Names and boundaries of electoral districts". www.elections.nsw.gov.au. NSWEC. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  15. Green, Antony. "NSW State Redistribution Finalised". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 26 August 2021.
  16. "State Register of Parties". New South Wales Electoral Commission.
  17. "NSW State Redistribution Finalised". Antony Green's Election Blog. 26 August 2021. Retrieved 29 August 2021.
  18. Smith, Alexandra. "Labor's Chris Minns becomes preferred NSW premier as Dominic Perrottet suffers poll hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 24 February 2022.
  19. Smith, Alexandra. "Broad support for assisted dying ahead of vote on controversial bill". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 25 November 2021.
  20. Smith, Alexandra. "Two-thirds of people support NSW opening at 70 per cent vaccination". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 23 September 2021.
  21. Smith, Alexandra. "Voters question speed of lockdown but Berejiklian still popular". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  22. Smith, Alexandra. "Berejiklian preferred premier among Labor voters: poll". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 18 May 2021.
  23. O'Keefe, Chris (14 March 2021). "'Ten wasted years': NSW Labor polls just 23.9 per cent of primary vote". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  24. Samaras, Kos. "Libs 37, Labor 23.9, Nats 3.1, 4.3 PHON, SFFP 0.8, Greens 6.7, Indi 5.3, 18.9 not sure. Weighted to ABS". Twitter.
  25. Bonham, Kevin (15 March 2021). "AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low".
  26. TPP estimate by Kevin Bonham: "AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low". 15 March 2021.
  27. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 2 June 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  28. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 25 October 2021. Retrieved 27 October 2021.
  29. "Newspoll: Gap closes on lifting coronavirus restrictions". The Australian. The Australian. 20 September 2020.
  30. Coorey, Phillip. "Berejiklian beats PM in poll – but Chant is the real winner". The Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 30 July 2021.
  31. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 17 November 2020. Retrieved 17 November 2020.
  32. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. Essential Research. 3 November 2020. Retrieved 3 November 2020.
  33. "NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian still has support of majority of voters despite revelation: Exclusive poll". 9News.com.au. Nine News. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  34. "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Sydney Morning Herald. The Sydney Morning Herald. 25 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020.
  35. "Performance of State Premiers". Essential Vision. 19 October 2020. Retrieved 20 October 2020.
  36. "Berejiklian's approval rating high but her reputation has taken a hit". The Daily Telegraph. 18 October 2020. Retrieved 12 November 2020.
  37. "Newspoll: Daniel Andrews caught in voters' crossfire over COVID-19". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
  38. "Andrews' halo slips: Newspoll". The Australian. The Australian. 30 June 2020.
  39. Benson, Simon (28 April 2020). "Premiers riding a wave of popularity". The Australian. News Corp Australia.
  40. "Sydney news: Poll reveals NSW election remains deadlocked, police make fresh murder appeal". Retrieved 20 March 2019.
  41. "NSW election set to be close". Retrieved 11 March 2019.
  42. Tovey, Josephine (17 February 2019). "Essential poll shows one in four NSW voters opting for minor parties". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 February 2019.
  43. Smith, Alexandra (9 March 2019). "Sentiment may seem clear but NSW is still the Coalition's to lose". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.