2022 United States Senate election in Ohio

The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Two-term Republican incumbent Rob Portman announced that he would not seek re-election to a third term on January 25, 2021, citing "partisan gridlock".[1]

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio
November 8, 2022
 
Nominee J. D. Vance Tim Ryan
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Rob Portman
Republican


Elections in Ohio
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Primary elections took place on May 3, with conservative commentator and author J. D. Vance winning the Republican nomination, and U.S. Representative Tim Ryan winning the Democratic nomination.

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads.[2] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience, with the debate moderator interfering after it was feared the two candidates would come to blows.[3] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting, and on April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator J.D. Vance, who had criticized him in the past.[4][5] Vance, running largely as a nationalist, frequently attacking Opioids and illegal immigration, had been trailing in the polls prior to this, but as a result of Trump's support, saw a surge that allowed him to become the race's frontrunner for the first time, and he led in most polls prior to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time.[6] Ultimately, Vance prevailed with 32% of the vote, 10 points higher than his nearest competitor, Mandel, with Dolan in a close third. This primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party, as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020.[7] The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.[8] There were twice as many votes in the Republican primary as there were in the Democratic Primary.

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
Republican candidates[lower-alpha 1]

Withdrawn
  • John Berman, electronic hardware design, test engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate (Minnesota and Kansas) in 2020[17]
  • Bernie Moreno, businessman[18][19][20]

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements
Matt Dolan
U.S. Governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
  • Rodney Creech, state representative from the 43rd district (2021–present)[57]
  • Tom Young, state representative from the 42nd district (2021–present)[58]
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
J. D. Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Matt
Dolan		 Mike
Gibbons		 Josh
Mandel		 Jane
Timken		 J. D.
Vance		 Other
[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
Real Clear Politics April 28 – May 1, 2022 May 2, 2022 21.5% 15.0% 22.5% 7.0% 26.0% 8.0% Vance +3.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Dolan		 Mike
Gibbons		 Josh
Mandel		 Bernie
Moreno		 Jane
Timken		 Mike
Turner		 J. D.
Vance		 Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 29 – May 1, 2022 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 13% 21% – 6% – 26% 4%[lower-alpha 4] 9%
Emerson College April 28–29, 2022 885 (LV) ± 3.2% 18% 14% 22% – 7% – 24% 4%[lower-alpha 5] 11%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 25–26, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 12% 12% 19% – 8% – 31% 0% 17%
Blueprint Polling (D) April 21–24, 2022 634 (LV) ± 3.9% 18% 13% 12% – 7% – 17% – 33%
Fox News April 20–24, 2022 906 (LV) ± 3.0% 11% 13% 18% – 6% – 23% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 25%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 18–19, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 9% 13% 18% – 11% – 25% <1% 23%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 13–14, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 12% 14% 28% – 8% – 23% 3%[lower-alpha 7] 13%
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] April 11–12, 2022 884 (LV) ± 3.3% 15% 17% 23% – 12% – 10% 3% 20%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] April 3–4, 2022 2,500 (LV) ± 2.0% 13% 20% 16% – 15% – 10% – 26%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] March 30–31, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 9% 18% 18% – 9% – 18% – 29%
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022 – (LV) – 5% 21% 22% – 6% – 10% 4% 34%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 7% 22% 20% – 9% – 11% 3%[lower-alpha 8] 24%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 22% 15% – 6% – 8% 4%[lower-alpha 9] 39%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] February 23–24, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 8% 18% 14% – 12% – 14% – 34%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 4] February 8–10, 2022 609 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 23% 11% – 8% – 9% – 44%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 8–10, 2022 1,085 (LV) ± 3.0% 10% 16% 21% – 10% – 14% 3% 25%
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 613 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 20% 18% – 6% – 5% 10%[lower-alpha 10] 34%
February 3, 2022 Moreno withdraws from the race
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] January 30 – February 1, 2022 514 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 17% 28% 6% 9% – 13% – 22%
Cygnal (R)[upper-alpha 4] January 28–30, 2022 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 3% 16% 13% 6% 8% – 10% – 45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] January 18–20, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 14% 15% 11% 13% – 9% 1% 34%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[upper-alpha 5] January 11–13, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 10% 20% 10% 18% – 10% – 24%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 6] January 5–6, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% 14% 26% 7% 15% – 10% 8% 16%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] January 3, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 4% 14% 18% 9% 16% – 8% – 31%
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 12–15, 2021 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 5% 12% 21% 2% 10% – 15% – 34%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] November 29, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 4% 13% 21% 3% 17% – 10% – 32%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] November 21–23, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 7% 18% 2% 10% 6% 10% – 45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 17–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 6% 19% 1% 4% 7% 16% – 43%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] September 2021 – (LV) – 6% 12% 22% 3% 11% – 9% – 37%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 20–23, 2021 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 3% 8% 37% 1% 6% – 13% 6% 26%
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] September 6–7, 2021 980 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 5% 34% 2% 11% – 16% – 30%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] August 17–19, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 2% 4% 19% 1% 5% 5% 13% – 51%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 6] July 27–29, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 3% 40% 1% 8% – 12% 13% 20%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] July 20–22, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 2% 21% 2% 7% 7% 12% – 48%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] June 15–17, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 2% 2% 22% 1% 8% 6% 4% – 55%
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] June 1–3, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 5% 35% 2% 16% – 6% – 34%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] May 26, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 7% 24% 1% 19% 8% 4% – 35%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] April 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 1% 23% 1% 14% 7% 4% – 37%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 1] April 20–22, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 2% 25% 2% 8% 7% 6% – 51%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] March 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 2% 28% – 11% 7% 2% – 37%
Moore Information Group (R)[upper-alpha 3] February 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 2% 20% – 5% 8% – – 50%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Mike
Gibbons		 Josh
Mandel		 Bernie
Moreno		 Steve
Stivers		 Jane
Timken		 Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 2] June 1–3, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% – 45% – – 22% 33%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 7] February 1–3, 2021 509 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 38% 2% 11% 6% 39%

Results
Results by county:
Vance
  •   40–50%
  •   30-40%
  •   20–30%
Mandel
  •   30–40%
  •   20-30%
Dolan
  •   40-50%
  •   30-40%
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican J. D. Vance 340,991 32.2%
Republican Josh Mandel 253,051 23.9%
Republican Matt Dolan 247,042 23.3%
Republican Mike Gibbons 123,417 11.7%
Republican Jane Timken 62,237 5.9%
Republican Mark Pukita 22,478 2.1%
Republican Neil Patel 9,897 0.9%
Total votes 1,059,113 100.0%

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary
Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus

Disqualified
  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District[112][20]
  • Rick Taylor[113][20]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services[20][11]

Declined

Endorsements
Morgan Harper
Organizations
Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Mayors
County Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor Unions

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Morgan
Harper		 Traci
Johnson		 Tim
Ryan		 Other Undecided
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022 – (LV) – 18% – 43% 4% 37%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022 313 (LV) ± 5.5% 4% 9% 31% 5%[lower-alpha 11] 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Amy
Acton		 Tim
Ryan		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 15–16, 2021 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 32% 31%

Results
Results by county:
Ryan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60-70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tim Ryan 355,764 69.7%
Democratic Morgan Harper 90,485 17.7%
Democratic Traci Johnson 64,113 12.6%
Total votes 510,362 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

Disqualified

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[164] Lean R November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[165] Solid R January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[166] Likely R November 3, 2021
Politico[167] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[168] Lean R January 10, 2022

Endorsements
J. D. Vance (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide Officials
State Senators
  • Matt Dolan, state senator from the 24th district since 2017 and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[174]
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Mayors
County Officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor Unions

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 J. D.
Vance (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 3% 24%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 37% 3% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 39% 37% – 24%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Mandel (R)		 Amy
Acton (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 41% 42% 17%
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Mandel (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 36% 4% 18%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 37% 4% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 42% 38% – 20%
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Jane
Timken (R)		 Amy
Acton (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 40% 40% 20%
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Jane
Timken (R)		 Tim
Ryan (D)		 Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 4% 23%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 38% 4% 22%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 41% 38% – 21%
J. D. Vance vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 J. D.
Vance (R)		 Amy
Acton (D)		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 8] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 38% 40% 22%

Results
United States Senate election in Ohio, 2022
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican J. D. Vance
Democratic Tim Ryan
Independent Eric Meiring
Independent Sam Ronan
Total votes

Notes
  1. The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Patel and Pukita with 2%
  5. Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  6. Patel and Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  7. Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  8. Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  9. Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  10. Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  11. Tinsley with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. This poll was sponsored by Mandel's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by Timken's campaign
  4. This poll was sponsored by Gibbons's campaign
  5. This poll was sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  6. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton

References
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  98. Moreno, Bernie [@berniemoreno] (April 15, 2022). "Ohio Republicans: let's unite & make certain we keep the seat in Republican hands. As we have seen @TimRyan is a shallow, useless, and tired career DC bureaucrat who has done nothing for the people he was paid to serve. Time for him to go home. @JDVance1 will make that happen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  99. Sam Dorman (September 9, 2021). "Pro-life leader endorses Ohio's JD Vance for Senate: 'He will protect the innocent lives of unborn children'". Fox News.
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  101. @DonaldJTrumpJr (April 15, 2022). "I've gotten to know @JDVance1 personally over the past year & I'm convinced that he's 100% America First. The leftwing media, the Dems & the weak RINOs all HATE him because they know he stands with #MAGA. He's the real deal folks, that's why my dad & I are both supporting him!" (Tweet). Retrieved April 16, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  123. @MichaelBColeman (February 3, 2021). "After serious consideration and discussion with my family, we have decided that I will NOT run for the US SENATE. I appreciate the outpouring of support. I will weigh in on a Senate candidate and advocate for good public policy to benefit all Ohioans" (Tweet). Retrieved February 11, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  135. Brand New Congress [@BrandNew535] (August 18, 2021). "She's BACK! @mh4oh is running again, this time for the US #Senate in #Ohio. BNC proudly stood with Morgan last year, and we're ready to #morganize again! Raised fist Let's elect a progressive Senate in 2022. Split a donation between Morgan & BNC here: t.co/9nI2QS7vSX?amp=1" (Tweet). Retrieved August 18, 2021 – via Twitter.
  136. @BoldProgressive (August 20, 2021). "We're thrilled to endorse Morgan Harper @mh4oh for #OHSen! Morgan is a consumer protection attorney & community organizer running on a bold progressive platform. She's uniquely qualified to mobilize the coalition Dems need to win. Watch her launch video:" (Tweet). Retrieved August 24, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  139. Merkley, Jeff [@JeffMerkley] (December 21, 2021). "BREAKING: I'm excited to announce that I'm endorsing @ValDemings and @TimRyan for the U.S. Senate! They are both fantastic candidates and represent our best chance at flipping these two seats blue" (Tweet) – via Twitter.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
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  152. "NARAL Pro-Choice America endorses Tim Ryan for U.S. Senate". The Chronicle. February 24, 2022.
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  156. @@TimRyan (April 28, 2021). "I come from a union family, and I'm proud to have spent my life standing with workers. I'm honored to be launching this campaign with the support of unions across Ohio, and I'll never stop fighting to cut our workers in on the deal" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  159. Tim Ryan [@TimRyan] (October 29, 2021). "Proud to be recommended by @OhioEA & @NEAToday. As the husband of a teacher, I know the challenges facing our students and educators. I'll keep working to invest in our schools so our teachers have the resources to give all our kids the education and support they need to thrive" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  169. {{https://twitter.com/robportman/status/1521682819977777152
  170. https://twitter.com/DrPaulGosar/status/1521731387577020416
  171. @LaurenBoebert (May 3, 2022). "Congratulations to my friend and Ohio's next Senator, @JDVance1!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 4, 2022 – via Twitter.
  172. {{https://twitter.com/mikedewine/status/1521688012580655104
  173. "Josh Mandel, in conceding to J.D. Vance, who CBS has projected as the winner of the Ohio GOP Senate nomination, said he looked forward "to voting for him in November."".
  174. @MattDolan (May 3, 2022). "JD Vance and I have debated our differences, and in this hard fought campaign he was successful. Just as I will never quit fighting for Ohio, I now pledge to unite our party and endorse JD Vance to be our next U.S. Senator" (Tweet). Retrieved May 3, 2022 – via Twitter.
  175. https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1521660301384462336?s=20&t=w51DfXmtR9UxcPGtkUs6Dw
  176. https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1521711217982640129?s=20&t=w51DfXmtR9UxcPGtkUs6Dw
  177. "I just spoke with JD Vance and congratulated him on his victory. I am so thankful to my wonderful family and team who supported me in this race. While tonight's results are disappointing, I am incredibly proud of the race we've run and know we must retake the Senate in November".
  178. https://twitter.com/ohiogop/status/1521688801940328448?s=20&t=tQfJja0V2At8Bz7Ni0VdOw
  179. "I just spoke with Congressman Ryan and congratulated him on his primary win. Thank you so much to our amazing team, and our supporters, volunteers, and Morganizers across Ohio and around the country! I am so incredibly grateful to have had your support in this race".
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