2022 United States Senate election in Florida
The 2022 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio has announced that he will run for reelection to a third term.[1]
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| Elections in Florida |
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 Government |
Republican primary
Declared
- Kevin DePuy, former Marine Corps sergeant[2]
- Howard Knepper, businessman[3]
- Jake Loubriel, Florida National Guardsman[4]
- Ervan Katari Miller, perennial candidate[5]
- Marco Rubio, incumbent U.S. senator[1]
- Earl Yearicks IV, maritime captain[6]
Republican candidates[lower-alpha 1]
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Potential
Withdrawn
- Calvin Driggers, businessman[8][9]
- Luis Miguel, conservative writer and activist[10] (running for State House)
- Angela Walls-Windhauser, perennial candidate[11]
Declined
- Pam Bondi, former Florida attorney general[12]
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. representative[7][13]
- Roger Stone, political consultant[14][15]
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States[16] (endorsed Rubio)[17]
- Ivanka Trump, former advisor to the President[18][19]
- Michael Waltz, U.S. representative (running for re-election)[20]
Endorsements
Marco Rubio
- U.S. Executive Branch Officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[21]
- Organizations
Democratic primary
Declared
- Edward Abud, businessman[24]
- Val Demings, U.S. representative[25]
- Allen Ellison, policy consultant and nominee for Florida's 17th congressional district in 2018 and 2020[26]
- Al Fox, president of the Alliance for Responsible Cuba Policy Foundation[27]
- Alan Grayson, former U.S. representative and candidate in 2016[28]
- Dana Harshman, pharmacist[29]
- Josue Larose, perennial candidate[30]
- Allek Pastrana, engineer[31]
- William Sanchez, immigration lawyer and former special counsel for the U.S. Department of Justice[32]
- Coleman Watson, federal attorney and stroke survivor[33][34]
- Joshua Weil, teacher[35]
Democratic candidates[lower-alpha 1]
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Potential
- Gwen Graham, Assistant Secretary of Education for Legislation and Congressional Affairs, former U.S. representative, and candidate for governor in 2018[36]
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, former U.S. representative[37]
Withdrawn
- Ilya Katz, Loyola University Chicago professor[38]
- Ken Russell, Miami City Commissioner[39][40] (running for congressional district 27)
Declined
- Aramis Ayala, former state attorney for the Ninth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (2017–2021)[41] (running for Attorney General)[42]
- Charlie Crist, U.S. representative, former Governor of Florida, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, and nominee for governor in 2014 (running for governor)[43]
- Ted Deutch, U.S. representative[44][45][46]
- Anna Eskamani, state representative[47][48]
- Nikki Fried, Florida commissioner of agriculture[36] (running for governor)[49]
- Stephanie Murphy, U.S. representative[50][51]
Endorsements
Val Demings
- U.S. Senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York (2009–present)[52]
- U.S. Representatives
- Kathy Castor, U.S. Representative from Florida's 14th congressional district (2007–present)[53]
- Luis Gutiérrez, former U.S. Representative from Illinois's 4th congressional district (1993–2019)[54]
- Statewide officials
- Alex Sink, former Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2007–2011)[55]
- Organizations
- Congressional Black Caucus PAC[56]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[57]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[58]
- EMILY's List[59]
- Feminist Majority PAC[60]
- Giffords[61]
- League of Conservation Voters[62]
- March On[63]
- Human Rights Campaign[64]
- Population Connection Action Fund[65]
- Labor unions
Alan Grayson
- Individuals
- Marianne Williamson, author and candidate for President of the United States in 2020[67]
Independent and third party candidates
Declared
- Dennis Misigoy, former chairman of the Enclave at Black Point Community Development District board of supervisors[69]
Declared
- Quoc Tuan Nguyen, Florida Institute of Technology professor[70]
Declared
- Shantele Bennett, financial advisor and candidate for mayor of Orlando in 2019[71]
Declared
- Carlos Barberena, digital marketing consultant[72]
- Grace Granda, business consultant[73]
- Steven B. Grant, mayor of Boynton Beach (2016–present)[74]
- Jason Holic, businessman[75]
Potential
- David Jolly, chairman of Serve America Movement and former U.S. representative[76]
Declined
- John Morgan, attorney and medical marijuana advocate[44]
- Joe Scarborough, MSNBC host and former U.S. representative[77]
Third-party and Independent candidates[lower-alpha 1]
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General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[78] | Lean R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[79] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] | Likely R | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[81] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[82] | Lean R | February 24, 2022 |
Polling
- Marco Rubio vs. Val Demings
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | August 4, 2021 – February 20, 2022 | February 24, 2022 | 49.0% | 40.0% | 11.0% | Rubio +9.0 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Val Demings (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Leo University | February 28 – March 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
| University of North Florida | February 7–20, 2022 | 685 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 34% | – | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon | February 7–10, 2022 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| Suffolk University | January 26–29, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 41% | 0% | 10% |
| St. Pete Polls | November 18–19, 2021 | 2,896 (LV) | ± 1.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 33% | 3% | 12% |
| 842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 36% | 3% | 10% | ||
| Saint Leo University | October 17–23, 2021 | 500 (A) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 29% | – | 25% |
| VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 1] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 34% | 3% | 11% |
| 977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 37% | 3% | 10% | ||
| Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) | August 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| St. Pete Polls | August 16–17, 2021 | 2,068 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] | August 14–17, 2021 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | August 4–10, 2021 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 39% | 1% | 9% |
| Political Matrix/Listener Group (R) | June 27, 2021 | 681 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 60% | 40% | – | – |
- Marco Rubio vs. Alan Grayson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Alan Grayson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 9, 2021 | 867 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | 4% | 12% |
| 842 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 4% | 10% | ||
| VCreek/AMG (R)[upper-alpha 1] | September 23–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 32% | 10% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 20–24, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 33% | 4% | 12% |
| 977 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 36% | 4% | 11% |
Hypothetical polling
- Marco Rubio vs. Aramis Ayala
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Aramis Ayala (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherry Communications (R) | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 39% | – |
- Marco Rubio vs. Stephanie Murphy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Stephanie Murphy (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherry Communications (R) | April 30 – May 8, 2021 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | – |
- Marco Rubio vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Marco Rubio (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | February 24–28, 2021 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Data for Progress (D)[upper-alpha 3] | September 15–22, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
Notes
- The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Americas PAC
- This poll was sponsored by Future Majority
- Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund
References
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External links
- Florida Division of Elections Candidate Tracking System
- Official campaign websites
- Carlos Barberena (I) for Senate
- Val Demings (D) for Senate
- Allen Ellison (D) for Senate
- Steven B. Grant (I) for Senate
- Alan Grayson (D) for Senate
- Howard Knepper (R) for Senate
- Jake Loubriel (R) for Senate
- Luis Miguel (R) for Senate
- Dennis Misigoy (L) for Senate
- Quoc Tuan Nguyen (IP) for Senate
- Allek Pastrana (D) for Senate
- Marco Rubio (R) for Senate
- Ken Russell (D) for Senate
- William Sanchez (D) for Senate
- Coleman Watson (D) for Senate
- Joshua Weil (D) for Senate
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