2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona.
 | |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
.jpg.webp)
| Elections in Arizona |
|---|
 |
Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election with 51.2% of the vote and is running for reelection to a full term. Republican John McCain was reelected to his seat in 2016. McCain died on August 25, 2018; former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of the year and was replaced by former U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost to Kelly in a special election in 2020. Due to the very small margin by which Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden carried the state in 2020, the seat is considered one of the best possible Senate pickups for the Republicans in the 2022 election cycle.[1]
Primaries in Arizona are scheduled to take place on August 2.
Democratic primary
Declared
- Mark Kelly, incumbent U.S. Senator (2020–present)[2][3]
Endorsements
Mark Kelly
- Executive Branch officials
- Miles Taylor, Chief of Staff to the United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Republican)[4]
- Christine Todd Whitman, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former Governor of New Jersey (1994-2001) (Republican)[4]
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Kelly (incumbent) | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Republican primary
Declared
- Mark Brnovich, Attorney general of Arizona (2015–present)[14]
- Jim Lamon, solar power businessman[15]
- Blake Masters, president of the Thiel Foundation and chief operating officer of Thiel Capital[16]
- Michael McGuire, Major General (ret.) and former Adjutant General of the Arizona National Guard[17]
- Justin Olson, member of the Arizona Corporation Commission[18]
Republican candidates[lower-alpha 1]
Declined
- Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)[21][22]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–present)[23]
- Paul Gosar, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2013–present) (running for re-election)[24]
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor (running for governor)[25]
- Jack McCain, veteran and son of former U.S. Senator John McCain[26]
- Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for governor)[27]
- Kimberly Yee, state treasurer of Arizona (2019–present) (running for re-election)[28][29]
- Kirk Adams, former chief of staff to Governor Doug Ducey (2015–2018) and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives (2008–2011)[30]
- Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–present), former state senator (2012–2015) and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[31]
Endorsements
Jim Lamon
- Organizations
Michael McGuire
- U.S. Representatives
- Barry Goldwater Jr., U.S. Representative from California's 27th congressional district (1969–1975) and California's 20th congressional district (1975–1983); son of former U.S. Senator from Arizona and 1964 Republican presidential nominee Barry Goldwater[33]
Mark Brnovich
- Individuals
- Sean Hannity, host of Fox News' Hannity, and conservative political commentator[34]
Blake Masters
- Executive branch officials
- David McIntosh, Director of the Domestic Policy Council (1987–1988) and U.S. representative from Indiana's 2nd congressional district (1995–2001)[35]
- Robert C. O'Brien, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2019–2021)[36]
- U.S. Senators
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present) and 42nd Attorney General of Missouri[37]
- U.S. Representatives
- Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[38]
- Madison Cawthorn, U.S. Representative from North Carolina's 11th congressional district (2021-present)[39]
- Individuals
- Tucker Carlson, host of Fox News' Tucker Carlson Tonight, and conservative political commentator[40]
- Peter Thiel, venture capitalist[41]
- Abraham Hamadeh, candidate for Arizona Attorney General in 2022[42]
- Organizations
Justin Olson
- Organizations
- Stand for Health Freedom[44]
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Brnovich |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | April 25–28, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 8% | 3% | – | 21% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 1] | April 21–24, 2022 | – (LV) | – | 22% | 25% | 16% | 6% | – | – | 31% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[upper-alpha 1] | April 5–6, 2022 | 1,126 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 20% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 2% | – | 35% |
| OH Predictive Insights | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 21% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 3% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital (R) | April 1–3, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 26% | 10% | 7% | 4% | – | 33% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 264 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 8% | 61% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 2] | March 13–14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 5% | 1% | – | 52% |
| Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners (UK Conservative Party) | March 9–12, 2022 | 433 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | – | 45% |
| Data Orbital (R) | March 2022 | – (LV) | – | 23% | 17% | 14% | 4% | 5% | – | 37% |
| Data Orbital (R) | February 11–13, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 5% | – | 37% |
| co/efficient (R) | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 11% | 44% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 25% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 4% | – | 47% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 252 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 27% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 2% | – | 46% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 2] | October 26–28, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 4% | 14% | 2% | 2% | <1%[lower-alpha 3] | 52% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[upper-alpha 3] | September 9–12, 2021 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 5% | 7% | 4% | – | – | 43% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 27% | 3% | 6% | 14% | – | – | 51% |
| Fabrizio Lee (R)[upper-alpha 2] | August 4–8, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 29% | 7% | 5% | 3% | – | <1%[lower-alpha 4] | 56% |
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 61% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Kirk Adams |
Andy Biggs |
Mark Brnovich |
Doug Ducey |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Michael McGuire |
Justin Olson |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) | February 6–8, 2022 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | – | 14% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 9% | 38% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 302 (RV) | ± 5.6% | – | – | 13% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 2% | – | 34% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 4] | April 5–6, 2021 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | – | 46% | – | 45% | – | – | – | – | – | 9% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 27% | – | – | – | 2% | 3% | – | – | 67% |
| 6%[lower-alpha 6] | 26% | – | – | – | 2% | 10% | – | – | 56% | ||||
| Data Orbital (R)[upper-alpha 5] | February 17–19, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | – | 4% | 53% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Brnovich | |||
| Republican | Jim Lamon | |||
| Republican | Blake Masters | |||
| Republican | Michael McGuire | |||
| Republican | Justin Olson | |||
| Total votes | ||||
Libertarian primary
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[46] | Tossup | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[47] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Tossup | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[49] | Tossup | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[50] | Tossup | February 24, 2022 |
Polling
- Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Mark Brnovich (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | 21% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 35% | 21% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Michael McGuire (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 37% | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 35% | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
- Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Andy Biggs (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 1,469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kelli Ward (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 18% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 35% | 19% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Jack McCain (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 29% | 28% |
- Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Kimberly Yee (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | May 3–5, 2021 | 935 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 35% | 19% |
- Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround Public Affairs (R) | March 26–27, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 2% | 22% |
| OH Predictive Insights | March 7–15, 2022 | 753 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 37% | 39% | – | 24% |
| OH Predictive Insights | January 11–13, 2022 | 855 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 19% |
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 713 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 39% | – | 21% |
See also
Notes
- The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Paveza with <1%
- Paveza with <1%
- Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
- Response with candidates' job titles
- Partisan clients
- This poll was sponsored by Jim Lamon's campaign
- This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
- This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
- This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
- This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
References
- "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022". CNN.
- "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020.
- "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021.
He's [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
- "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.
- "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.
- Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
- "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
- "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
- "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- "2022 House & Senate Endorsements".
- "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
- "Endorsements". March On.
- "2022 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
- "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.
- Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the 1st Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
- Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". Fox Business. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
- Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
- Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
- "'Let's go, Brandon' becomes a campaign slogan in Arizona Republican's new ad". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
- "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
- https://biggsforcongress.com/news/
- Sanchez, Yvonne (March 3, 2022). "'I have the job I want': Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2022". Arizona Mirror. Retrieved March 3, 2022.
- Gosar, Paul. "Gosar announces re-election". Twitter. Retrieved June 1, 2021.
- Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.
- Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
- McCarthy, Daniel [@DemandDanielAZ] (December 8, 2020). "Jim, thank you! I am not a state Rep. State Reps have signed it, but I am setting up a run for Governor of Arizona. The source you republished got it wrong. I'll be on the War Room with Owen Shroyer around 4:30 ET to give the latest" (Tweet). Retrieved January 15, 2020 – via Twitter.
- Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
- "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
- Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.
- Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - "CPAC Endorses Jim Lamon". www.conservative.org. December 8, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
- @GeneralMcGuire (February 9, 2022). "The Goldwater family has deep roots on Arizona and ..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - Brnovich, Mark (April 29, 2022). "I'm proud to announce that I'm now endorsed by BOTH the G.O.A.T @seanhannity and "the Great One" @marklevinshow. Thanks Sean for all your leadership & support through the years. We're building a movement that will take back the Senate for AZ and bring security to all Arizonans". Twitter.
- Greenwood, Max (February 3, 2022). "Club for Growth endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
- Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
- Isenstadt, Alex. "Hawley endorses Thiel-backed Arizona Senate candidate". POLITICO. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
- Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
- @bgmasters (January 28, 2022). "The future is America First. I'm honored to be endorsed by @CawthornforNC, who deeply understands this" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "Politico Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.
- Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
- https://twitter.com/AbrahamHamadeh/status/1517331453662535680?s=20
- https://rnrenewal.org/statements/republicans-for-national-renewal-endorses-blake-masters-for-u-s-senate/
- https://standforhealthfreedom.com/vhf/olson/
- "2022 Primary Election Interested Candidates". apps.arizona.vote. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
- "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
- "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
- "Arizona Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- "Battle for the Senate 2022". RealClearPolitics. January 10, 2022.
External links
- Official campaign websites
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.