2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2020). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
  • Lean: clear advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
  • ("N/A" means that the source used has not provided information)
District CPVI[1] Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
April 25,
2022[3]		 IE
April 22,
2022[4]		 Sabato
April 27,
2022[5]		 Politico
April 28,
2022[6]
Alaska at-large R+9 Vacant 54.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert (R) 52.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup
Arizona 2 R+6 Tom O'Halleran (D) 51.6% D Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Arizona 4 D+2 Greg Stanton (D) 61.6% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Arizona 6 R+3 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
(retiring)		 55.1% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Arizona 8 R+10 Debbie Lesko (R) 59.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
California 3 R+4 New seat - Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder (D) 55.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
California 13 D+4 New seat - Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
California 21 D+9 Jim Costa (D) 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D
California 22 D+6 David Valadao (R) 50.4% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 23 R+8 Jay Obernolte (R) 56.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
California 25 D+7 Raul Ruiz (D) 60.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
California 26 D+8 Julia Brownley (D) 60.6% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia (R) 50.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 40 R+2 Young Kim (R) 50.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
California 41 R+4 Ken Calvert (R) 57.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 45 D+4 Michelle Steel (R) 51.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter (D) 53.5% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin (D) 53.1% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Colorado 3 R+8 Lauren Boebert (R) 51.4% R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Colorado 5 R+10 Doug Lamborn (R) 57.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Colorado 7 D+3 Ed Perlmutter (D)
(retiring)		 59.1% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Colorado 8 R+1 New seat - Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Connecticut 2 D+2 Joe Courtney (D) 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Connecticut 5 D+2 Jahana Hayes (D) 55.1% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Florida 2 R+7 Al Lawson (D) and Neal Dunn (R) 65.1% D and 97.9% R Solid R N/A Solid R Likely R
Florida 4 R+6 New seat - Solid R (flip) N/A Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Florida 7 R+5 Stephanie Murphy (D)
(retiring)		 55.3% D Likely R (flip) N/A Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Florida 13 R+5 Charlie Crist (D)
(retiring)		 53.0% D Likely R (flip) N/A Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Florida 15 R+3 New seat - Likely R N/A Likely R Lean R
Florida 16 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R) 55.5% R Solid R N/A Solid R Likely R
Florida 23 D+5 Ted Deutch (D)
(retiring)		 58.6% D Solid D N/A Solid D Likely D
Florida 27 D+3 María Elvira Salazar (R) 51.4% R Likely R N/A Likely R Likely R
Florida 28 D+1 Carlos A. Giménez (R) 51.7% R Solid R N/A Likely R Likely R
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop (D) 59.1% D Likely D Solid D Lean D Likely D
Georgia 6 R+12 New seat - Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip)
Georgia 12 R+8 Rick W. Allen (R) 58.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Illinois 6 D+5 Sean Casten (D) and Marie Newman (D) - Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Illinois 8 D+7 Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) 73.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Illinois 11 D+5 Bill Foster (D) 63.3% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Illinois 13 D+4 New seat - Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Illinois 14 D+4 Lauren Underwood (D) 50.7% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
Illinois 17 D+3 Cheri Bustos (D)
(retiring)		 52.0% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Indiana 1 D+4 Frank J. Mrvan (D) 56.6% D Lean D Solid D Lean D Lean D
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 49.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson (R) 51.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Iowa 3 R+3 Cindy Axne (D) 48.9% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Kentucky 6 R+9 Andy Barr (R) 57.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden (D) 53.0% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 1 R+11 Andy Harris (R) 63.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Maryland 6 D+1 David Trone (D) 58.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Massachusetts 9 D+6 Bill Keating (D) 61.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Michigan 3 D+1 Peter Meijer (R) 53.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Michigan 4 R+5 Bill Huizenga (R) - Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin (D) 50.9% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Michigan 8 R+1 Dan Kildee (D) 54.4% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Michigan 10 R+3 New seat – Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Michigan 11 D+7 Andy Levin (D) and Haley Stevens (D) - Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Minnesota 1 R+8 Vacant 48.6% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Minnesota 2 EVEN Angie Craig (D) 48.2% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Minnesota 8 R+8 Pete Stauber (R) 56.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Montana 1 R+7 New seat - Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+1 Don Bacon (R) 50.8% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus (D) 61.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Nevada 2 R+8 Mark Amodei (R) 56.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Nevada 3 D+2 Susie Lee (D) 48.8% D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford (D) 50.7% D Tossup Likely D Lean D Lean D
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew (R) 51.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim (D) 53.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer (D) 53.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 7 R+2 Tom Malinowski (D) 50.6% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
New Jersey 11 D+5 Mikie Sherrill (D) 53.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Mexico 1 D+4 Melanie Stansbury (D) 60.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Mexico 2 D+2 Yvette Herrell (R) 53.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
New Mexico 3 D+4 Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) 58.7% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D
North Carolina 1 D+3 G. K. Butterfield (D)
(retiring)		 54.2% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
North Carolina 6 D+4 Kathy Manning (D) 62.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D
North Carolina 7 R+8 David Rouzer (R) 60.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 9 R+6 Richard Hudson (R) 53.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 11 R+8 Madison Cawthorn (R) 54.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 13 R+2 New seat – Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
North Carolina 14 D+5 New seat – Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Ohio 1 D+2 Steve Chabot (R) 51.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Ohio 7 R+7 Bob Gibbs (R)
(retiring) and Anthony Gonzalez (R)
(retiring)		 - Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Ohio 9 R+3 Marcy Kaptur (D) 63.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner (R) 58.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Ohio 13 EVEN Tim Ryan (D)
(retiring)		 52.5% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip)
Ohio 15 R+6 Mike Carey (R) 58.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Oregon 4 D+4 Peter DeFazio (D)
(retiring)		 51.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 5 D+1 Kurt Schrader (D) 51.9% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Oregon 6 D+4 New seat – Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 56.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Pennsylvania 6 D+5 Chrissy Houlahan (D) 56.1% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild (D) 51.9% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright (D) 51.8% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry (R) 53.3% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Lean R
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Conor Lamb (D)
(retiring)		 51.1% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup
Rhode Island 2 D+4 James Langevin (D)
(retiring)		 58.2% D Lean D Solid D Likely D Lean D
South Carolina 1 R+9 Nancy Mace (R) 50.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Tennessee 5 R+8 Jim Cooper (D)
(retiring)		 100.0% D Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Texas 15 D+1 New seat – Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Texas 23 R+5 Tony Gonzales (R) 50.6% R Solid R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Texas 28 D+5 Henry Cuellar (D) 58.3% D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup
Texas 34 D+12 Vicente Gonzalez (D) 50.5% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Virginia 1 R+7 Rob Wittman (R) 58.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Virginia 2 R+3 Elaine Luria (D) 51.6% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Virginia 5 R+7 Bob Good (R) 52.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger (D) 50.8% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D
Virginia 10 D+5 Jennifer Wexton (D) 56.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Washington 3 R+5 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 56.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Washington 4 R+12 Dan Newhouse (R) 66.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Washington 5 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 61.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Washington 6 D+6 Derek Kilmer (D) 59.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier (D) 51.7% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil (R) 59.3% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Ron Kind (D)
(retiring)		 51.3% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
District 2021 CPVI Incumbent Previous result Cook IE Sabato Politico

    Generic ballot polls

    The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections.

    Polling aggregates
    Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Lead
    RealClearPolitics April 28, 2022 April 10 – 27, 2022 41.6% 46.4% +4.8%
    FiveThirtyEight April 28, 2022 June 16, 2021 - April 28, 2022 42.6% 45.2% +2.6%
    Average 42.1% 45.8% +3.7%

    Party listings

    The campaign committees for the two parties (the DCCC and NRCC) publish their own lists of targeted seats.

    Democratic-held seats

    The NRCC is now targeting 77 Democrat held seats.[7] They released their initial list February 10, 2021[8] and added 10 seats to the initial list on May 4, 2021[9] and a further 13 seats November 3, 2021 after the favorable election night results. They added eight additional seats on March 30, 2022.[10] The first two lists were published before redistricting, however the 3rd list begins to incorporate redistricting impacts such as Colorado's 7th congressional district. Seats in bold were included in the DCCC's frontline seats in March 2021, or were added in January 2022.[11][12]

    Republican target seats
    1. Arizona 1: Tom O'Halleran
    2. Arizona 2: Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring)
    3. Arizona 9: Greg Stanton
    4. California 3:
    5. California 7: Ami Bera
    6. California 9: Josh Harder
    7. California 20: Jim Costa
    8. California 26: Julia Brownley
    9. California 36: Raul Ruiz
    10. California 47: Katie Porter
    11. California 49: Mike Levin
    12. Colorado 7: Ed Perlmutter (retiring)
    13. Connecticut 2: Joe Courtney
    14. Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
    15. Florida 7: Stephanie Murphy (retiring)
    16. Florida 9: Darren Soto
    17. Florida 13: Charlie Crist (retiring)
    18. Florida 14: Kathy Castor
    19. Florida 22: Ted Deutch (retiring)
    20. Georgia 2: Sanford Bishop
    21. Georgia 6: Lucy McBath (running in Georgia's 7th congressional district)
    22. Georgia 7: Carolyn Bourdeaux
    23. Illinois 3: Marie Newman
    24. Illinois 6: Sean Casten
    25. Illinois 11: Bill Foster
    26. Illinois 14: Lauren Underwood
    27. Illinois 17: Cheri Bustos (retiring)
    28. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
    29. Iowa 3: Cindy Axne
    30. Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
    31. Maine 2: Jared Golden
    32. Maryland 6: David Trone
    33. Michigan 5: Dan Kildee
    34. Michigan 8: Elissa Slotkin
    35. Michigan 11: Haley Stevens
    36. Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
    37. Minnesota 3: Dean Phillips
    38. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
    39. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
    40. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
    41. New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
    42. New Hampshire 2: Annie Kuster
    43. New Jersey 3: Andy Kim
    44. New Jersey 5: Josh Gottheimer
    45. New Jersey 7: Tom Malinowski
    46. New Jersey 11: Mikie Sherrill
    47. New Mexico 1: Melanie Stansbury
    48. New Mexico 3: Teresa Leger Fernandez
    49. New York 3: Thomas Suozzi
    50. New York 4: Kathleen Rice (retiring)
    51. New York 18: Sean Patrick Maloney
    52. New York 19: Antonio Delgado
    53. New York 20: Paul Tonko
    54. New York 25: Joe Morelle
    55. New York 26: Brian Higgins
    56. North Carolina 2: G.K. Butterfield (retiring)
    57. North Carolina 2: Deborah Ross
    58. North Carolina 6: Kathy Manning
    59. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
    60. Ohio 13: Tim Ryan (retiring)
    61. Oregon 4: Peter DeFazio (retiring)
    62. Oregon 5: Kurt Schrader
    63. Pennsylvania 4: Madeleine Dean
    64. Pennsylvania 6: Chrissy Houlahan
    65. Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
    66. Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
    67. Pennsylvania 17: Conor Lamb (retiring)
    68. Tennessee 5: Jim Cooper
    69. Texas 7: Lizzie Fletcher
    70. Texas 15: Vicente Gonzalez (running in Texas's 34th congressional district)
    71. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
    72. Texas 32: Colin Allred
    73. Virginia 2: Elaine Luria
    74. Virginia 7: Abigail Spanberger
    75. Virginia 10: Jennifer Wexton
    76. Washington 8: Kim Schrier
    77. Wisconsin 3: Ron Kind (retiring)

    Republican-held seats

    On April 6, 2021, the DCCC released their list of target seats, including open and Republican-held seats.[13] This list was published before redistricting. Several seats were added in January 2022.[14][15]

    References
    1. "Enacted Maps and 2022 Ratings". The Cook Political Report. October 1, 2021. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
    2. "House election results 2020". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
    3. "2022 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
    4. "2022 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
    5. "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 14, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
    6. "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2022.
    7. "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 13 New Targets". 3 November 2021.
    8. "NRCC Announces 47 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities for 2022 Cycle". NRCC. February 10, 2021. Retrieved February 22, 2021.
    9. "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 10 New Targets Following Reapportionment". nrcc.org. NRCC. 4 May 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
    10. "House GOP campaign arm adds new seats to target list". 30 March 2022.
    11. "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". DCCC. March 1, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
    12. "DCCC expands list of vulnerable House Democrats". The Hill. January 27, 2022.
    13. "DCCC Announces 2021-2022 Districts In Play". dccc.org. DCCC. April 6, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
    14. "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". nbcnews.com. NBC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
    15. >"DCCC Announces Changes To 2022 House Battlefield". dccc.org. DCCC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 29, 2022.
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