2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
The 2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election will be held on 15 May 2022 to elect the 18th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The current government is a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Hendrik Wüst.
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All 181 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia (plus overhang and leveling seats) 91+ seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Election date
The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets. Elections must take place in the last three months of the legislative period.[1]
Electoral system
The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.[2]
Background
In the previous election held on 14 May 2017, the CDU became the largest party with 33.0% of votes cast, an increase of seven percentage points. The SPD lost eight points and placed second with 31.2% of votes. The FDP won 12.6% (+4.0pp), and the Greens fell to 6.4% (–4.9pp). The AfD contested its first election in North Rhine-Westphalia, winning 7.4%.
The SPD had led a coalition with the Greens since 2010, but this government lost its majority in the election. The CDU subsequently formed a coalition with the FDP, and Armin Laschet became Minister-President.
After unsuccessfully leading the CDU/CSU in the 2021 German federal election, Laschet resigned as Minister-President. Hendrik Wüst was elected by the Landtag as his successor on 27 October 2021.[3]
Parties
The table below lists parties currently represented in the 17th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.
| Name | Ideology | Lead candidate(s) |
Leader(s) | 2017 result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
Christian democracy | Hendrik Wüst | Hendrik Wüst | 33.0% | 72 / 199 | |
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
Social democracy | Thomas Kutschaty | Thomas Kutschaty | 31.2% | 69 / 199 | |
| FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei |
Classical liberalism | Joachim Stamp | Joachim Stamp | 12.6% | 28 / 199 | |
| AfD | Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland |
Right-wing populism | Markus Wagner | Rüdiger Lucassen | 7.4% | 16 / 199 | |
| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
Green politics | Mona Neubaur | Felix Banaszak Mona Neubaur |
6.4% | 14 / 199 | |
Opinion polling
Graphical summary
Party polling
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
CDU | SPD | FDP | AfD | Grüne | Linke | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wahlkreisprognose | 1 May 2022 | 1,853 | 30.5 | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 20–22 Apr 2022 | 1,445 | 31 | 31.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 15 | 2.5 | 6 | 0.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 19–21 Apr 2022 | 1,164 | 31 | 30 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| INSA | 11–13 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 29 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Forsa | 4–11 Apr 2022 | 1,821 | 30 | 30 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 6 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–9 Apr 2022 | 1,230 | 27.5 | 33 | 7.5 | 6 | 17.5 | 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| INSA | 28 Mar–4 Apr 2022 | 1,000 | 28 | 30 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 29–31 Mar 2022 | 1,182 | 31 | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 11–13 Mar 2022 | 1,100 | 30.5 | 31 | 9.5 | 5 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| Forsa | 2–9 Mar 2022 | 2,006 | 32 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| INSA | 15–17 Feb 2022 | 1,000 | 27 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13–17 Feb 2022 | 1,874 | 29 | 30 | 10 | 8 | 13.5 | 4 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Forsa | 26 Jan–2 Feb 2022 | 2,006 | 29 | 27 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| INSA | 24 Jan–2 Feb 2022 | 2,000 | 26 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 24–27 Jan 2022 | 1,160 | 28 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 6 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 19–20 Jan 2022 | 1,230 | 30 | 27 | 11 | 9 | 13.5 | 4 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12–20 Dec 2021 | 1,210 | 29 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Forsa | 26 Nov–7 Dec 2021 | 2,009 | 27 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 6 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24–28 Nov 2021 | 1,400 | 25 | 28 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 11–16 Nov 2021 | 1,004 | 27 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 16.5 | 3.5 | 5 | 2 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 26–31 Oct 2021 | 1,009 | 27 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 18–21 Oct 2021 | 1,172 | 22 | 31 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16–19 Oct 2021 | 1,320 | 22 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 8 |
| INSA | 4–10 Oct 2021 | 1,000 | 20 | 33 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 26.0 | 29.1 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 16.1 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 1–9 Aug 2021 | – | 25 | 24.5 | 12 | 9 | 20 | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–15 Jul 2021 | – | 30 | 23.5 | 11 | 8.5 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 6.5 |
| Forsa | 10–17 May 2021 | 1,058 | 25 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| INSA | 3–10 May 2021 | 2,014 | 25 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Infratest dimap | 6–8 Apr 2021 | 1,197 | 28 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–28 Jan 2021 | 1,000 | 37 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| INSA | 22–28 Oct 2020 | 1,008 | 33 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 24–29 Aug 2020 | 1,002 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Infratest dimap | 8–9 Jun 2020 | 1,001 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| Infratest dimap | 14–16 Apr 2020 | 1,003 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| Forsa | 6–8 Apr 2020 | 1,084 | 39 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 19 |
| Infratest dimap | 24–29 Oct 2019 | 1,001 | 32 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| Mentefactum | 14–21 Oct 2019 | 1,003 | 31 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Forsa | 1–16 Aug 2019 | 1,505 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 2019 EP election | 26 May 2019 | – | 27.9 | 19.2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 23.2 | 4.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 |
| Infratest dimap | 19–21 Feb 2019 | 1,001 | 30 | 23 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| Mentefactum | 19–21 Nov 2018 | 1,004 | 28 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| Infratest dimap | 4–6 Oct 2018 | 1,000 | 28 | 21 | 11 | 12 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 7 |
| YouGov | 6–12 Sep 2018 | 1,049 | 31 | 24 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 7–8 May 2018 | 1,002 | 35 | 22 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| Forsa | 8–22 Feb 2018 | 1,015 | 34 | 24 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| Infratest dimap | 9–11 Jan 2018 | 1,002 | 34 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 2017 federal election | 24 Sep 2017 | – | 32.6 | 26.0 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| YouGov | 1–8 Sep 2017 | 1,048 | 35 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 29–31 Aug 2017 | 1,000 | 33 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| 2017 state election | 14 May 2017 | – | 33.0 | 31.2 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
References
- "Constitution of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia". Recht.nrw.de. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
- "State Election Law". Recht.nrw.de. Retrieved 12 May 2021.
- "Germany: Hendrik Wüst to take helm of most populous state". Deutsche Welle. 27 October 2021.
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